#Africa #Markets | 20 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia shares rally to 4-1/2-mth peak on hopes of US-China trade deal
  • Ex-Japan Asia MSCI up 1 pct to highest since early Oct
  • Investors expect US, China to reach trade deal next month
  • Minutes of Fed’s Jan 29-30 policy meeting in focus

Oil Markets

  • Oil near 2019 highs amid OPEC cuts, US sanctions
  • US sanctions on Iran, Venezuela tighten markets
  • But soaring US shale output offsets some of the disruption
  • Economic slowdown to weigh on oil prices by Q4 – BNP Paribas
  • Brent up 0.2 pct at $66.58 per barrel (0300GMT)
  • WTI up 0.5 pct at $56.39 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices hold at 10-mth highs; markets await Fed minutes
  • Spot gold marginally lower at $1,339.61 per ounce (0021GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2 pct at $1,342.6 an ounce

Grains

  • Wheat rises after dropping to 4-mth low, soybean prices firm
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.3 pct at $4.91-1/4 per bushel (0134GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.5 pct at $3.71-3/4 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 0.1 pct at $9.01-3/4 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures up 0.2 pct at $10.01 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa 2019 budget to be presented by finmin Mboweni today
  • South Africa inflation data for Jan-19 expected [fcst. 4.5% yy, prev. 4.5%]
  • Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to announce MPC decision(s) today
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Libya’s NOC to assess security at El Sharara before resuming production
  • Death toll from northwest Nigeria attack doubles to 130
  • Eastern Libya forces hand El Sharara oilfield to oil guards
  • Tunisia central bank raises key rate to 7.75 pct from 6.75 pct to curb inflation
  • Zimbabwe to run out of bread in 1 week as flour stocks dwindle – millers
  • Chinese “Ivory Queen” smuggler sentenced to 15 years jail in Tanzania
  • Africa Crude – Nigeria March overhang persists as April programmes awaited
  • South Africa’s rand tepid ahead of annual budget speech
  • MTN faces more problems in Uganda as authorities query its sales figures
  • Delta Sugar looks to raise output as Egypt pushes sugar beet
  • South Africa parliament approves long-delayed carbon tax bill
  • Glencore to cut output, jobs at copper, cobalt mine in Congo – WSJ
  • UN says fighting, instability have displaced 100,000 in Burkina Faso
  • South Africa need to invest to rebuild confidence in power sector – minister
  • South Africa’s AngloGold looks to streamline assets, Argentine mine up for sale
  • South Africa updated long-term energy plan to be ready in March – minister
  • ‘Basic needs before infrastructure’: fashioning a fairer Senegal
  • Egypt security forces kill 16 suspected militants – state media
  • South Africa govt meeting fails to break Eskom split impasse – COSATU
  • Union Fenosa says guarantees not sufficient to restart Egypt LNG plant
  • South Africa defence group Denel to seek investment partners: CEO
  • Egypt begins receiving offers for dollar bond sale – finmin
  • South Africa’s AMCU calls on Sibanye platinum workers to join strike
  • Kenya says crude oil capacity insufficient for refinery
  • South Africa needs to invest, build confidence in power generation – Radebe
  • South Africa’s Kumba Iron Ore 2018 headline earnings edge lower
  • South Africa AngloGold Ashanti posts highe full-year earnings

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 20 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
06:30 Netherlands Consumer Confidence 
08:00 Turkey Consumer Confidence 
08:00 Germany PPI MoM 
08:00 Euro Area ECB Praet Speech 
09:00 South Africa Inflation Rate YoY 
09:00 Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting 
12:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders 
15:00 Brazil Business Confidence 
16:00 Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash 
20:00 US FOMC Minutes 
22:30 US API Crude Oil Stock Change 
01:00 US US-China Trade Talks
NEWS
Japan Imports Drop Less than Estimated 
Australia Wages Rise by 2.3% YoY for Second Quarter 
Japan Trade Deficit Widens More than Expected 
New Zealand Business Input Prices Rise Further 
UK Stocks End Lower on HSBC Report 
Colombia Consumer Confidence Improves in January 
Russia Wage Growth Weakest Since 2016 
Russia Unemployment Rate Rises to 9-Month High 
Russia Retail Trade Growth at 18-Month Low 
US Home Builder Confidence Stronger than Expected 
Burundi Consumer Prices Fall the Least in 5 Months 
Portugal Producer Inflation Slows to 10-Month Low

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

#Africa #Markets | 19 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares near 4-mth high, buoyed by trade optimism
  • Asian shares, Japan’s Nikkei flat in early trade
  • Hopes of progress in US-China talks buoy mood
  • Palladium hits record high, gold near 10-mth peak

Oil Markets

  • Brent eases from 2019 highs as markets await trade talks outcome
  • Brent down 42 cents at $66.80 per barrel (0220GMT)
  • WTI down 12 cents at $55.71 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold steady near 10-mth high; palladium hits record level
  • Spot gold little changed at $1,326.10 per ounce (0048GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.5 pct at $1,328.9 per ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans edge higher as traders hope for US-China trade deal
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.1 pct at $5.04-3/4 per bushel (0129GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.3 pct at $3.75-3/4 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 0.3 pct at $9.10-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures unchanged at $10.09 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Nigeria main opposition PDP party holds 1st key meeting after polls postponement; ruling APC party held its own yesterday

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 2 policemen killed in blast in Cairo, Egypt
  • Army to be “ruthless” against tampering in Nigeria’s postponed vote – Buhari
  • Oil gains as investors grow optimistic over OPEC output deal
  • Nigeria’s electoral commission allows resumption of campaigning after vote delay – statement
  • Workers at Port Sudan container terminal strike over concession deal
  • Uber agrees to pay VAT in Egypt – tax chief
  • South African billionaire Motsepe says he won’t buy Eskom assets
  • South African Airways in talks to roll over $650 mln of debt
  • Africa Crude – Angola April programme emerges, Nigeria’s awaited amid election delay
  • Nigeria’s election delay triggers stock market selloff
  • ‘Africans are tired’: hairdresser hopes for change as Senegal election nears
  • Athletics – Semenya accuses IAAF of breach of regulations at CAS hearing
  • Nigeria’s main opposition party accuses Buhari of ‘jungle justice’ threat
  • Kenya’s domestic debt refinancing risks rise as more bonds mature
  • 4 Zimbabwe generals retired in Mnangagwa’s first purge of military
  • Nigerian assets fall as election delay fuels uncertainty
  • Nigeria’s Buhari says reasons for election delay should be investigated after vote
  • Zimbabwe opposition politician fined over election results
  • Kenya shilling edges up against the dollar
  • Nigeria president [holds] emergency meeting with ruling party over election delay
  • Nigeria eurobond yields rise after surprise election delay
  • South Africa’s Bosasa to cease trading as banks close accounts
  • South Africa state airline to be split into three – CEO
  • Uganda shilling steady, investor interest in govt debt to help
  • South Africa’s Bosasa applies for liquidation as banks close accounts
  • South Africa Amplats lost 14,000 platinum ounces during last week’s power cuts
  • South Africa Amplats profit nearly doubles on higher prices, improved operations

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 19 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
08:00 Switzerland Balance of Trade 
09:30 Sweden CPIF YoY 
09:30 Sweden Inflation Rate MoM 
10:00 Poland Employment Growth YoY 
10:30 UK Employment Change 
10:30 UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus 
10:30 UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus 
10:30 UK Claimant Count Change 
10:30 UK Unemployment Rate 
11:00 Euro Area Construction Output YoY 
11:00 Germany ZEW Current Conditions 
11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
NEWS
RBA Sees Risks from Housing Slide and Weak Consumption 
New Zealand Services PMI Jumps to 8-Month High 
Oil Prices Extend Gains 
Belarus Industrial Output Growth Slows in January 
Panama Trade Deficit Narrows in December 
Russia Producer Inflation Slows to 9-Month Low of 9.5% 
Sri Lanka Services Growth Strongest in 5 Months 
Albania Posts Smallest Trade Gap in 2 Years 
Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI at 3-Month High 
Nigerian Shares Fall After Election Delay 
Palladium Prices Hit Another Record High 
Asian Shares Rally on Further US-China Trade Talk

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

#Africa #Markets | 18 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia bulls dare to hope on trade talks, stimulus
  • Nikkei rises to 2019 high after Wall St gains
  • Investors wager on progress at Sino-US talks in Washington
  • Signs mount major central banks turning reflationary

Oil Markets

  • Oil hits 2019-high on OPEC supply cuts, US sanctions on Iran & Venezuela
  • Brent up 0.3 pct at $66.47 a barrel (0051GMT)
  • WTI up 0.5 pct at $55.89 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold at 2-wk high on trade deal hopes; palladium peaks
  • Spot gold up 0.3 pct at $1,324.80 per ounce (0324GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.4 pct at $1,327.8 an ounce

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa state capture inquiry to resume for the week; testimony from national treasury team to be heard

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Hit by wilder weather, Botswana’s farmers seek welfare payments
  • Tunisia workers kidnapped in Libya have been freed – foreign ministry
  • Mozambique ex-president’s son arrested in $2 bln fraudulent debt case
  • Kenya summons its ambassador to Somalia as territorial row escalates
  • Nigeria candidate says delayed presidential vote could be compromised
  • Egypt’s Pyramids turned into marathon venue
  • Paramount Group in talks to develop Africa’s defence industry
  • Sudan fruit seller dies choking on tear gas fired at protesters – family
  • South Africa sseeks to reopen costly renewables deals to help Eskom
  • South Africa wants lower power prices from older renewables projects – minister
  • Tunisia police and protesters clash after death at police station
  • Nigeria presidential poll postponed, oppostion slams decision
  • 15 Egypt troops killed or wounded in North Sinai – military
  • NBA and FIBA to launch pro league in Africa
  • Zimbabwe rescuers pull 22 bodies from mine, 8 more found alive
  • Islamic State claims North Sinai attack, says 20 Egyptian troops killed
  • Athletics – Ethiopia’s Tefera breaks world indoor 1,500m record
  • Nigeria commission says transport delays behind vote postponement
  • Sahel instability spreading to coastal West Africa – Burkina Faso
  • Congo’s Virunga park reopens eight months after deadly ambush
  • Sudan lawmakers postpone amendment to keep Bashir in power
  • Nigeria opposition candidate accuses govt of hoping to disenfranchise electorate
  • Nigeria opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar urges voters to be patient
  • Nigeria’s president appeals for calm after election delay
  • Zimbabwe rescuers pull out 8 trapped miners alive
  • Nigeria presidential election postponed to Feb. 23 – INEC chair
  • Nigeria presidential election could be delayed in some areas – diplomatic, govt sources
  • Sudan policeman dies from wounds after protesters stone vehicle – spokesman
  • Tunsia oil refinery workers kidnapped in Libya – activist
  • Morocco set on capping fuel price despite regulator’s disapproval
  • Kenya activist death in botched abortion spotlights ‘killer’ backstreet clinics
  • South African Airways to pay Comair $78 mn to settle competition case
  • Frustrated relatives lose hope of finding trapped Zimbabwe miners alive
  • Africa Crude – Nigerian trade pauses ahead of election
  • Anadarko closes in on final Mozambique LNG decision
  • Tunisia economy grew 2.5 pct in 2018 vs 1.9 pct in 2017
  • Citgo Petroleum to dismiss workers in Aruba over US sanctions – prime minister
  • South African rand heads for over 3 pct weekly loss on power crisis
  • South Africa ex-ambassador to Iran arrested in MTN investigation
  • South Africa says has up to 60 tcf of offshore gas potential
  • Ex-Mozambique finance minister denied bail in South Africa
  • South Africa withdraws arrest warrant for Zuma friend Gupta
  • Egypt thwarts bomb attack on Cairo security sources – ministry
  • MTN Group reiterates no money was given to ex-ambassador to Iran
  • Anadarko closes in on final Mozambique LNG decision with another supply deal
  • Morocco’s competition council advises against fuel price cap
  • Rape still endemic with South Sudan’s Unity state despite peace –UN
  • Nigeria’s suspended chief judge charged as election nears
  • Uganda shilling steady; forecast to weaken due to importer dollar demand
  • Ex-intelligence head, chair of 3 state-run companies arrested in Mozambique – source
  • Grand parade to close Dunkin’, Baskin Robbins in South Africa
  • Uganda deports MTN CEO over ‘national security’ concerns
  • Kenya shilling in firm position amid offshore investor flows
  • Nigeria inflation falls to 11.37 pct in January as election nears
  • Zimbabwe inflation quickens to 56.9 percent in January
  • South Africa’s Eskom suspends power cuts but warns system vulnerable
  • South Africa’s Gold Fields FY proft slumps as production drops
  • US military denies taking part in raid on al Qaeda site in Libya

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 18 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
12:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report 
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 
08:00 Switzerland Balance of Trade 
09:30 Sweden CPIF YoY 
09:30 Sweden Inflation Rate MoM 
10:00 Poland Employment Growth YoY 
10:30 UK Employment Change 
10:30 UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus 
10:30 UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus 
10:30 UK Claimant Count Change 
10:30 UK Unemployment Rate 
11:00 Euro Area Construction Output YoY
NEWS
Thailand Quarterly GDP Growth Rebounds Strongly in Q4 
Thailand Q4 GDP Annual Growth Above Expectations 
Singapore NODX Drops the Most in Over 2 Years 
Japan Machinery Orders Drop Less than Expected 
Israel Q4 GDP Growth Above Forecasts at 3.1% 
S&P Upgrades Hungary’s Credit Rating to ‘BBB’ 
Moody’s Changes Mozambique’s Credit Outlook to Stable 
Dominican Republic Inflation Falls to 0.7% YoY 
Overseas Investors Sell US Securities in December 
US Stocks Close Higher on Friday 
Panama Consumer Prices Fall 0.3% YoY in January 
European Stocks End Higher on Friday

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

macroafricaintel Weekly | 18 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
20 Feb South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2019 4.5 (0.3) 4.5 (-0.2)
20 Feb South Africa Budget Balance, % GDP 2018/19 -4.3
20 Feb South Africa Budget Balance, % GDP 2019/20 -4.1
20 Feb South Africa Budget Balance, % GDP 2020/21 -3.9
20 Feb South Africa Budget Balance, % GDP 2021/22 -3.7
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2019 3.5 (0.3) 3.5 (0.1)