#Africa #Markets | 11 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia shares near 3-week lows, sterling struggles on Brexit woes
  • Pound near 20-mth trough on Brexit related uncertainty
  • Disappointing economic data, Sino-US trade war weigh
  • Chinese shares bounce on trade optimism, sentiment cautious
  • Focus on Indian markets after RBI governor resigns

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices rise on Libyan export interruption, but markets remain weak
  • Libya’s National Oil Company declares force majeure
  • But sentiment on prices remains weak amid stock market slump
  • Speculators cut their long crude positions to 2016 lows
  • Kuwait, Iran lower price for January oil supplies to Asia
  • Brent crude oil futures up 0.3 pct at $60.19 per barrel (0336GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures up 0.3 pct at $51.16 per barrel

Grains

  • Soybeans extend losses to hit 5-day low
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures down 0.6 pct at $5.22 per bushel (0119GMT)
  • Most active corn futures down 0.3 pct at $3.83 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures down 0.3 pct at $9.06-3/4 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures unchanged at $10.67 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa mining production data for Oct 2018 due [fcst. -1.7% yy, prev. -1.8%]
  • South Africa manufacturing production data for Oct 2018 expected [fcst. -0.1% yy, prev. 0.1%]

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Kenya struggles to give life to futuristic ‘Silicon Savannah’ city
  • UK to invest 100 mln pounds in sub-Saharan Africa renewables fund
  • Ex-head of Egypt’s Customs Authority faces graft charges – prosecution office
  • Libya’s NOC won’t negotiate with group that closed Sharara oilfield – chairman
  • Africa Crude – Unsold Angolan cargoes whittled down, Nigerian still struggling for buyers
  • Egypt sells $1.1 bln in 1-yr t-bills – central bank
  • Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mukwege worried Congo vote could lead to war
  • UK’s Experian to buy Africa’s Compuscan
  • Egypt’s urban inflation drops back within target range
  • UN members adopt global migration pact rejected by US and others
  • Sudan pound slides to widest over official rate since devaluation
  • Ivory Coast aims to double gold output by 2025
  • South Sudan health workers to get ebola shots as Congo outbreak grows
  • Egypt’s core inflation decreases to 7.94 pct y/y in Nov – c.bank
  • EU renews Congo sanctions ahead of presidential election
  • South Africa’s MTN says still in talks with Nigerian authorities
  • Congo’s Gecamines to boost stake in Boss Mining JV to 49 pct
  • Kenyan pipeline, health insurance fund officials charged over graft
  • South Africa needs to bail out Eskom, says former Eskom adviser Rothschild
  • UN members adopt global migration pact – Moroccan foreign minister
  • Nigeria’s economy grew 1.81 pct in Q3, driven by non-oil sector, stats office says
  • KPMG South Africa appeals for second chance after corruption scandals
  • Kenya’s Consolidated Bank says seeking investor to inject 3.5 bln shillings
  • Heavy rains to slash Nigeria’s 2017/18 cocoa output by 10 pct

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 11 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
10:30 UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus 
10:30 UK Unemployment Rate 
10:30 UK Claimant Count Change 
10:30 UK Employment Change 
11:00 Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 
11:00 Germany ZEW Current Conditions 
11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 
14:30 US PPI MoM 
14:30 US Core PPI MoM 
22:30 US API Crude Oil Stock Change 
00:00 South Korea Unemployment Rate 
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
NEWS
Philippines Exports Grow 3.3% YoY 
Philippines Imports Rise 21.4% YoY 
Philippines Trade Gap Hits Record High in October 
US Stocks Edge Higher on Monday 
European Stocks Slump on Growth, Brexit Worries 
Ukraine Inflation Rate Rises Less than Expected 
US Job Openings Beat Forecasts 
Sterling Falls on Brexit Uncertainty 
Canada Building Permits Fall 0.2% MoM in October 
Canada Housing Starts Beats Estimates in November 
Mozambique Annual Inflation Rate at 6-Month Low 
Egypt Inflation Rate Hits 3-Month Low of 15.7%

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

macroafricaintel Weekly | 10 Dec [Update]

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
10 Dec Nigeria GDP, % yy Q3 2018 0.8 [act. 1.8] 1.5
11 Dec South Africa Mining Production, % yy Oct 2018 -1.7 -1.8
11 Dec South Africa Manufacturing Production, % yy Oct 2018 -0.1 0.1
12 Dec South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 5.3 (0.3) 5.1 (0.5)
12 Dec South Africa Retail Sales, % yy Oct 2018 2.8 0.7
13 Dec South Africa PPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 6.8 (0.4) 6.9 (1.4)
31 Dec South Africa PSCE, % yy Nov 2018 5.2 5.8
31 Dec South Africa M3. % yy Nov 2018 5.7 6.0
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 4.1 (0.2) 3.4 (0.2)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 2.9 (0.2) 3.2 (-0.3)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 3.8 (0.4) 3.6 (0.7)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 5.3 (0.4) 5.1 (0.4)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 11.4 (0.9) 11.3 (0.7)
Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 9.2 (0.6) 9.5 (0.7)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 11.1 (0.3) 11.5 (-0.3)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 2.7 (0.3) 2.8 (0.4)

#Africa #Markets | 10 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks extend slump as global growth worries mount
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 1.4 pct, Nikkei sheds 2.25 pct
  • Latest flare-up in US-China trade tensions take toll
  • Dollar drops broadly after soft US jobs data

Oil Markets

  • Brent oil prices rise after OPEC-led group announces 1.2 mln bpd supply cut
  • OPEC to curb supply by 800k bpd from January
  • Group of non-OPEC members led by Russia to cut 400k bpd
  • Fuel demand-growth set to slow next year amid economic woes
  • Brent crude oil futures up 0.2 pct at $61.81 per barrel (0016GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures down 0.5 pct at $52.35 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold steady near 5-mth peak, soft US jobs data supports
  • Spot gold steady at $1,247.80 per ounce (0103GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2 pct at $1,254.6 per ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans fall as US-China trade war escalates
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures down 0.5 pct at $5.28-1/2 per bushel (0123GMT)
  • Most active corn futures down 0.3 pct at $3.84-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures down 0.6 pct at $9.11-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures down 0.7 pct at $10.70 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nobel peace prize ceremony today; big day for Africans
  • Nigeria GDP data for Q3-2018 expected [fcst. 0.8% yy, prev. 1.5%]

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Libya is shutting down El Sharara after field seized by tribesmen – sources
  • More than 150 govts to adopt UN migration pact in Morocco
  • Nigeria opposition says govt has frozen VP candidate’s accounts
  • Opposition parties in Tanzania say proposed law will criminalise them
  • Egypt aims to kickstart African trade as it takes AU chair
  • Motion filed to impeach Somalia president – statement
  • Egypt’s Carbon Holdings secures $1.25 bln to build petrochemical complex
  • World Bank shifts focus to Egypt’s private sector with $1 bln loan
  • Nobel Peace prize winners seek justice for war rape victims
  • Congo’s outgoing president Kabila doesn’t rule out running again in 2023
  • Egypt approves BP purchase of 25 pct of Nour gas concession
  • Mubadala buys 20 pct interest in Egypt’s Nour oil concession
  • Libya’s NOC warns of “catastrophic” consequences if Sharara oilfield halted
  • At least 7 officials killed in Sudan helicopter crash – news agency
  • Protesters force shutdown at Libyan El Sharara oilfield – sources
  • Cities to work together to tackle migration ahead of UN pact
  • Libyan state oil firm scrambles to keep El Sharara oilfield open amid “occupation”
  • Gold output on hold at Randgold’s Loulo mine over pay dispute – union
  • UN climate negotiators sweat over detail and divides
  • IMF approves $3.7 bln credit facility for Angola
  • Roadside blast injures three in northeast Kenya – official
  • Fifteen civilians killed in ethnic attack on Mali village
  • Egypt says police kill two suspects in November attack on Christians
  • Air fares in Sudan soar due to local currency’s devaluation
  • Telecom Egypt, Liquid Telecom sign data centre, infrastructure deal
  • Belgium’s Africa Musuem reopens to confront its colonial demons
  • 3 Sudanese miners dead, 10 trapped in collapsed gold mine – company
  • Zambian court says Lungu can run for president in 2021, opposition cries foul
  • Nigeria oil minister expects green light for Bonga oilfield by February
  • Cocoa companies fail on pledge to stop Africa deforestation – report
  • Militants kill at least 18 civilians in Congo’s ebola zone
  • Africa Crude – Angolan cargoes sell slowly, Qua offer steady
  • Kenya Pipeline Company’s CEO arrested over loss of funds
  • Mozambique loan holders will not get future gas revenues in debt overhaul – legal counsel
  • Fastjet has only enough cash to fly for a week
  • South Africa’s minimum wage to apply from January 2019
  • South Africa axes board at state nuclear firm Necsa
  • Senegal opens new art musuem honouring black civilization
  • Nigeria’s cabinet agrees to send 2019 budget to parliament
  • Egyptian court to hear petition to cancel presidential term limits
  • Nearly half of Tanzania’s banks vulnerable to financial shocks – IMF
  • Kenya shilling firms on liquidity tightness
  • Tunisia PM says he expects new foreign exchange law
  • Kenya’s Ascent Capital looks to raise $120 mln for second fund
  • Amnesty says executions rising in South Sudan, govt denies it
  • Congo arrests army colonel in connection with killing of UN monitors – lawyer
  • South Africa’s Distribution and Warehousing sees bigger loss
  • Seawalls and forests aim to save the living – and dead – in Tanzania
  • South Africa’s Absa bank aims to lift lagging return on equity in 2021
  • Kenya’s NIC Bank shares surge 32 pct on merger talks with CBA
  • Kenya finance minister welcomes NIC Bank, CBA merger talks
  • South Africa’s Nov net foreign reserves rise to $42.577 bln

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Weekly | 10 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
10 Dec Nigeria GDP, % yy Q3 2018 0.8 1.5
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 4.1 (0.2) 3.4 (0.2)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 2.9 (0.2) 3.2 (-0.3)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 3.8 (0.4) 3.6 (0.7)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 5.3 (0.4) 5.1 (0.4)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 11.4 (0.9) 11.3 (0.7)
Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 9.2 (0.6) 9.5 (0.7)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 5.3 (0.3) 5.1 (0.5)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 11.1 (0.3) 11.5 (-0.3)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2018 2.7 (0.3) 2.8 (0.4)

#Global #Markets | 10 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 
07:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate 
08:00 Germany Balance of Trade 
08:00 Turkey GDP Growth Rate YoY 
08:00 Turkey GDP Growth Rate QoQ 
09:00 Nigeria GDP Growth Rate QoQ 
09:00 Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY 
10:00 Italy Industrial Production MoM 
10:30 UK Construction Output YoY 
10:30 UK Industrial Production YoY 
10:30 UK Industrial Production MoM 
10:30 UK Manufacturing Production YoY
NEWS
Irish Construction Activity Picks Up in November 
New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Drop in Q3 
China Producer Prices Rise the Least in Over 2 Years 
China Inflation Rate Slows to 4-Month Low of 2.2% 
Week Ahead 
China Exports Growth Slows Sharply 
China Trade Surplus Largest in 11 Months 
China Imports Rise the Least in Over 2 Years 
S&P Revises Qatar’s Outlook to Stable 
Nicaragua Inflation Rate Eases to 13-Month Low 
US Stocks Tumble on Friday 
US Consumer Credit Growth Beats Expectations

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

Reporter’s notebook – In support of the northeast

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

In mid-November, I covered the launch of the “Nigeria Humanitarian Fund – Private Sector Initiative” (NHF PSI) in Lagos for London-based African Business magazine. Edward Kallon, the United Nations (UN) resident/humanitarian coordinator in Nigeria, calls it a “global first” and says it “provides a blueprint for private sector engagement in humanitarian action through a country-based pooled fund set up and managed by the United Nations.” The NHF PSI is primarily aimed at funding the relief efforts in northeast Nigeria, where over 7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Having already secured more than $70 million in contributions from 17 countries, the launch in Lagos was to get private sector actors to contribute their quota.

In attendance were representatives of numerous non-governmental organisations (NGOs) operating in the region, chief executives of banks and oil firms, ambassadors, politicians, and so on. I struck conversations with at least three of the NGO-types in the room. A major point that kept coming up was corruption. There have been quite a lot of money from donors towards helping the victims of the violence in the northeast. Not nearly enough, of course. Sadly, an ample portion of the little that there is never gets to the actual people in need.

The lower house of the federal legislature recently raised concerns about the seeming pilferage of humanitarian assistance for the northeast. Their focus was on government expenditure via the emergency agency, however. And while the motive of their investigations was likely also political, there is genuine concern. Those who have visited the internally-displaced persons (IDPs) in their camps express shock at their plight. They wonder how after so much resources were supposedly put towards assisting IDPs, they could still be in such deplorable circumstances.

There has not been similar controversy around the humanitarian efforts of NGOs, private-sector actors and multilateral organisations. What they have in transparency and efficiency, they lack in scale, however. In other words, while the NHF PSI is likely to avoid some of the problems found to be associated with the government’s efforts, it would require much more heft to have a huge impact.

Thankfully, there were generous pledges by the many deep pockets at the launch of the NHF PSI. I am also aware that the Lagos Business School Alumni Association (LBSAA), the governing council of which I am a member, plans to help out in the northeast as well. As do many other similarly-minded bodies in the country.

Still, you do not have to be wealthy to help out. Every raised voice in advocacy for more relief efforts in the region matters. And the ubiquity of social media means almost everyone can add their voice to the cause relatively cheaply.

Voices must also be raised about the welfare of our men and women in uniform. If they are not able to secure the region, there can be no meaningful humanitarian assistance to the displaced. The recent killing of soldiers by terrorists in the region should be a wake-up call to the government not to become complacent. Our soldiers should be well-equipped and kitted to perform their patriotic duty. Their salaries and welfare packages must be paid in full and on time.

Another set of people I had a chat with at the launch were some young medics. It was not long before they started bemoaning the state of the country. I was a little bemused. After all, they were employed. Naturally, they want more. And they were convinced their chances would be better abroad. England, America and Canada were top choices. Having travelled a bit myself, I tried to convince them that things are not as rosy over there as they think. Silence would have been golden.