macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 13 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks see brighter world as trade, UK clouds lift
  • Pound surges as exit polls show Tories with majority
  • [Labour’s Corbyn to quit before next election, after poor polls]
  • Nikkei highest since Oct 2018 on reports of Sino-US trade deal
  • Markets scale back risk of rate cuts around the world
  • Safe-haven bonds, yen fall away

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices hit highest in 3 mths as US-China trade deal takes shape
  • Brent up 0.8% at $64.68 a barrel (0221GMT)
  • WTI up 0.6% at $59.54

Precious metals

  • Gold prices slip as trade euphoria lifts risk appetite
  • Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,466.35/oz. (0051GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,469.60/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans jump 1% , set for biggest weekly gain in over 2 months
  • Soybean futures up more than 2% for the week; hit high of $9.14-1/2
  • Corn futures up over 1% for the week; hit high of $3.84 a bushel
  • Wheat futures up more than 1% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Ghana’s Akufo-Addo press conference
  • Preliminary results of Algeria’s presidential poll expected
  • South Africa’s EFF 2nd national people’s assembly; 13-16 Dec

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Algerians protest through day of disputed election
  • Libyan commander urges forces to advance towards central Tripoli
  • Namibia rushes to drill boreholes as worst drought in a century bites
  • Voting ends in disputed Algerian election
  • Head of Libya parliament says Turkey-Libyan deal invalid
  • West African court voids Sierra Leone’s ban on pregnant schoolgirls
  • Wintershall to carry out Sirte exploration in Libya at own cost – NOC
  • US threatens visa restrictions over South Sudan peace process
  • Africa Oil – Freight rise set to bite in February but diffs still high
  • South African rand climbs to 6-week best as flat Fed overshadows local data
  • IMF deal lifts Ethiopia bonds as currency slides to record low
  • Turnout in Algeria election 20% at 3pm – official
  • South Africa’s MTN to defend views on data prices if referred to competition tribunal – CEO
  • Most African currencies seen firm; in week ahead
  • Women want in as internet revolution creeps into Chad
  • IMF preliminary deal lifts Ethiopia dollar bonds to near 2-yr high
  • Flights resume at Libya’s Mitiga airport in Tripoli
  • Famine stalks millions in South Sudan after droughts, floods – UN
  • Zambia’s power supply deficit worsens as water levels sink
  • Egypt’s strongman extends crackdown to a new foe: soap operas
  • Ivory Coast farmers push back against cocoa output cap
  • Rwanda GDP growth rises to 11.9% y/y in Q3 2019
  • Hundreds protest in central Algiers against disputed election
  • Turkey sends Libya maritime accord to UN for approval – source
  • Vitol signs 10-yr deal to buy Nigeria’s LNG from 2021
  • Ugandan shilling firmer on central bank liquidity mop-up
  • South African power cuts set to continue as some Eskom units still down
  • Uganda’s Umeme power company gets $70 mln loan for national grid expansion

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

 

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 12 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares rise as Fed cheer offsets trade, UK angst
  • Traders around the world brace for British election
  • Trump to meet advisors on China tariffs
  • Dovish Powell comments hurt dollar
  • Treasury yields rebound in Asia

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices stabilise on OPEC supply deficit forecast
  • Brent up 19 cents at $63.61 a barrel (0100GMT)
  • WTI down 9 cents at $58.85

Precious metals (11 Dec)

  • Gold rises 1% after Fed stands pat on rates, curbs hike hopes
  • Palladium hits peak of $1,917.30; set for 14th straight gain
  • Spot gold up 0.7% at $1,474.62/oz. (2100GMT)
  • US gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $1,475/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans steady as market awaits Sino-US trade updates
  • Soybean futures nearly unchanged at $8.93-3/4 a bushel (0224GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.71-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.3% at $5.17-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Kenya Jamhuri Day; public holiday
  • Algeria presidential election
  • South Africa mining production Oct-19 [fcst. -1.8% yy, prev. 0.2%]
  • South Africa producer inflation Nov-19 [fcst. 3.0% yy, prev. 3.0%]
  • Aswan forum in Egypt; 11-12 Dec [Nigeria’s Buhari et al. attending]

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • France, Niger propose to postpone G5 Sahel meeting to early 2020
  • Australia’s FAR completes $99 mln placement for Senegal project
  • Pompeo says US wants to work with Russia on Libya, reminded Lavrov of arms embargo
  • Production at Libya’s El Feel oil field restarts gradually – engineers
  • Goldman Sachs names new head of Johannesburg office
  • At least 70 soldiers killed in attack on Niger military camp – security sources
  • Africa Oil – High freight weighs, Angolan overhang looms
  • South Africa’s Eskom aims to stabilise grid by end of March after blackouts – president
  • IMF, Ethiopia reach preliminary agreement on $2.9 bln financing package
  • Algeria budget cuts spending, encourages foreign investors
  • South African rand firmer after data shows slowing inflation
  • Angola opens case against ex-minister over Namibia fishing bribe scandal
  • ICC: Central African Republic suspects to face war crimes trial
  • Egypt’s new sovereign fund cherry-picks assets to lure investors – CEO
  • South Africa’s cabinet to discuss self-generation of energy – Ramaphosa
  • Turkey says Libya accord does not include troop deployment
  • Small business owners count cost of South Africa’s power cuts
  • Egypt’s Rameda Pharmaceutical shares end 4.7% lower in debut trading
  • South Africa’s Eskom will work to restore network stability by end of March – Ramaphosa
  • Algerian protesters demand Thursday’s election be cancelled
  • Springfield E&P says it discovers 1.5 bln barrels of oil offshore Ghana
  • US sanctions five South Sudan officials over killings of govt critics
  • South Africa’s retail sales up 0.3% y/y in October
  • Kenyan court grants bail to Nairobi governor charged with corruption
  • South Africa’s Absa appoints new international head
  • Ugandan shilling little-changed, may gain on charity flows
  • South Africa annual consumer inflation slows to 9-yr low
  • Scaled power cuts set to continue in South Africa
  • Kenyan shilling holds steady amid importer demand
  • South African rand falls as nationwide blackouts weigh

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares adrift as tariff deadline looms
  • Investors wary as trade deadline draws closer
  • Nikkei flat, ASX drifts higher
  • Pound wobbles as projected Conservative majority shrinks

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slip on surprise US crude inventory build
  • US crude stocks rise by 1.4 mln bbls – API data
  • Analysts had been expecting a drop in inventory
  • Investors eye China-US trade negotiations for trading cues
  • Brent down 0.6% at $63.97 a barrel (0121GMT)
  • WTI down 0.5% at $58.94

Precious metals (10 Dec)

  • Palladium breaches $1,900 ceiling after South Africa outages
  • Spot gold settled up 0.1% at $1,463.88/oz.
  • US gold futures settled up 0.2% at $1,468.10/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans fall for first time in 7 sessions
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $9.00 a bushel (0221GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.1% at $3.76-3/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.1% at $5.23 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Aswan forum in Egypt; 11-12 Dec [Nigeria’s Buhari et al. attending; Ramaphosa cuts short trip]
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa to meet Eskom executives
  • South Africa inflation Nov-19 [fcst. 3.6% yy, prev. 3.7%]
  • South Africa retail sales Oct-19 [fcst. 0.5% yy, prev. 0.2%]
  • Kenya’s docked maverick Nairobi county governor Sonko bail hearing

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • US imposes sanctions on Islamist rebels in eastern Congo
  • Ethiopia deploys police in universities to stop ethnic violence
  • South African mines grind to halt as floods deepen power crisis
  • Rape map and murdered men – welcome to South Africa’s Republic of Sexual Abuse
  • Al Shabaab gunmen attack hotel near president’s residence in Somali capital – police, group
  • Petra Diamonds restarts South African mines
  • Africa Oil – Freight rates swell as Angolan glut looms
  • Unregulated teak trade fuelling South Sudanese violence – report
  • African cities bet on new technology to fix growing water shortages
  • Libya approves Total’s purchase of stake in Waha concessions
  • South African rand tumbles on blackouts shock, platinum and gold shares shine
  • Brazil’s Embraer signs $194.4 mln deal for 2 E175 jets with Congo Airways
  • Nigerian stocks fall for seventh session to 1-mth low
  • Alphabet’s Loon agrees airspace deal with Uganda for internet balloon service
  • Algeria set for presidential election denounced by protesters as charade
  • South Africa’s rand, Eskom dollar bonds hit by load shedding
  • Madagascar to raise minerals taxes, take 20% stake in mining projects
  • Angolan ex-president’s son on trial in rare corruption case
  • Sudan’s Bashir questioned over 1989 coup that brought him to power
  • Nobel peace laureate Abiy says militants, global powers threaten Horn of Africa
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa cuts short Egypt trip over power crisis
  • Gambia asks UN judges to impose measures to protect Myanmar’s Rohingya
  • Kenya’s coffee crop nosedives due to high temperatures, low prices
  • South Africa’s Tongaat seeks new chapter with equity raise, debt restructure
  • 2 days before election. Algeria jails 2 ex-prime ministers
  • Egypt’s core inflation falls to 2.1% in Nov from 2.7% in Oct – central bank
  • Rwanda’s inflation jumps to 6.9% y/y in Nov. – stats office
  • South Africa’s Eskom plans more load shedding, says crisis manageable
  • South Africa mining companies cut production due to power shortages
  • Kenyan shilling unchanged against the dollar

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares ease slightly as tariff deadline looms
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan -0.04%; Nikkei down 0.23%
  • China says it wants to make a trade deal as soon as possible
  • US official says Trump wants ‘movement’ from China to avoid tariffs
  • China producer prices fall, consumer prices spike in Nov.

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slip again as spectre of trade war, demand concerns haunts market
  • Brent down 0.2% at $64.14 a barrel (0204GMT)
  • WTI down 0.1% at $58.95

Precious metals

  • Gold steady ahead of Fed meet, awaits clarity on fresh US tariffs
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,461.05/oz. (0156GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,465.40/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans extend gains as Chinese purchases stir hopes of US-China deal
  • Wheat futures down 0.1% at $5.22-1/4 per bushel (0156GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.76 per bushel
  • Soy futures up 0.2% at $8.99-1/4 per bushel
  • Rice futures up 0.1% at $12.47 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria’s Buhari & South Africa’s Ramaphosa head to Egypt for Aswan Summit (11-12 Dec)
  • Eskom press conference by leader of South Africa’s DA
  • South Africa manufacturing production Oct-19 [fcst. -5.8% yy, prev. -2.4%]
  • 9th African, Carribean & Pacific Group of States (ACP) summit in Nairobi, Kenya; 9-10 Dec
  • [Air] Routes Africa forum in Mombasa; 8-10 Dec
  • Ethiopia’s Abiy in Oslo to receive Nobel Peace Prize

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • South African Airways is in ‘business rescue’. What does that mean?
  • Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan to meet Jan 13 over dam dispute, US says
  • Libya’s NOC says Tatneft resumed exploring activities in Libya’s Ghadames basin
  • Erdogan: Turkey and Libya can conduct joint explorations in eastern Med
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa vows ‘drastic’ steps to save state companies
  • Qatar Airways to take 60% stake in new $1.3 bln Rwandan international airport
  • Petra Diamonds halts South Africa mines after Eskom ups power cuts
  • Africa Oil – Rising freight rates weigh
  • South Africa’s rand weaker as power cuts weigh on sentiment
  • Charity sues Kenya over treatment of trafficked Indian, Nepali women
  • Jumia Technologies to suspend Jumia Foods delivery service in Rwanda
  • South Africa’s Eskom ups power cuts to 6,000 MW as Medupi plant fails
  • Algeria to cut oil output by 12,000 bpd under new OPEC deal
  • Rights groups urge release of Nigerian ex-presidential candidate
  • UN expert urges Ethiopia to stop internet shutdowns, revise hate speech law
  • Zambia’s Victoria Falls shrink to a trickle, feeding climate change fears
  • Egypt sells $1 bln in dollar-denominated t-bills – central bank
  • Kenya – Nairobi governor pleads innocent to graft charges, bail ruling Wednesday
  • As petrol prices rise, more Egyptians convert to dual-fuel vehicles
  • Uganda shilling unchanged after rate decision
  • Uganda central bank holds key lending rate at 9%, says GDP growth moderating
  • South Africa’s state-owned Prasa placed under administration – minister
  • Egypt considering 3 bond offerings during 2019-2020 FY – finmin
  • Kenyan shilling firms against the dollar
  • South Africa’s rand weak; focus on global cues ahead of US tariff deadline
  • Tullow Oil CEO steps down; scraps dividends on Ghana problems
  • Kenya police seal off court as Nairobi governor set to face draft charges

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 9 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks pulled higher by Wall St jobs rally but China caution prevails
  • US job data shows unexpected strength, calms recession fears
  • China Nov exports fall; import growth may signal demand recovery
  • Oil near multi-month high as OPEC+ agrees on deeper output cuts

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices stumble on weak China exports hangover
  • Brent down 0.5% at $64.06 a barrel (0055GMT)
  • WTI down 0.6% at $58.85

Precious metals

  • Gold rises as prospects of US tariffs lift safe-haven demand
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,460.40/oz. (0158GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,464.90/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans rise for 5th day on tariff waivers by China
  • Soybean futures up 0.4% at $8.93-1/4 a bushel (0132GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.3% at $3.77-3/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.2% at $5.23-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 9th African, Carribean & Pacific Group of States (ACP) summit in Nairobi, Kenya; 9-10 Dec
  • Ethiopia’s Abiy heads to Oslo to receive Nobel Peace Prize
  • Kusi ideas festival: “The next 60 years in Africa” in Kigali; 8-9 Dec
  • Nigeria’s Osinbajo due in UAE, to meet Abu Dhabi Crown Prince

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Sudan says it has reduced troops in Yemen to 5,000
  • South African Airways rescue aimed at saving jobs – minister
  • Congo authorities say ebola survivor falls ill a second time
  • 4 dead after rock collapse at South African gold mine
  • Egypt’s fuel subsidy bill drops by 69% year on year July – Sept – minister
  • Kenya police officers among 8 killed in bus attack
  • Algerian protesters march in last Friday rally before election
  • Mauritanian coast guard intercepts boat carrying 180 migrants – IOM
  • Nigeria files fraud charge in bid to overturn nearly $10 bln penalty
  • Africa Oil – Buyers await Nigerian discounts as gasoline cracks slip
  • President of South African agricultural lobby group resigns
  • South Africa’s power cuts may last the weekend if rain persists
  • 2 Tunisian parties reject coalition role
  • Kenya arrests gold-loving Nairobi governor on suspicion of corruption
  • Nigeria activist Sowore re-arrested hours after has was freed – lawyer
  • Turkey says Greek expulsion of Libyan envoy is ‘outrageous’
  • South African Airways to restructure under ‘business rescue’
  • South Africa’s Eskom tells customers about more power cuts
  • Uganda shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • Greece to expel Libyan ambassador over Turkey-Libya accord
  • IMF approves $247 mln reform loan to Angola
  • Kenyan shilling extends gains, helped by offshore investor flows
  • Sime Darby to sell Liberia plantation to local manufacturer
  • Kenya public prosecutor orders arrest of Nairobi governor on suspicion of economic crimes
  • South Africa’s net foreign reserves fall to $44.4 bln in Nov
  • Burundi ruling party militia forcing citizens to fund 2020 vote – rights group
  • Power cuts to continue in South Africa as Eskom units perform at low levels

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

 

macroafricaintel Weekly | 9-31 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
10 Dec South Africa Manufacturing Production, % yy Oct 2019 -5.8 -2.4
11 Dec South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 3.6 (0.1) 3.7 (0.0)
11 Dec South Africa Retail Sales, % yy Oct 2019 0.5 0.2
12 Dec South Africa Mining Production, % yy Oct 2019 -1.8 0.2
12 Dec South Africa PPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 3.0 (0.3) 3.0 (0.3)
31 Dec South Africa PSCE, % yy Nov 2019 7.7 7.3
31 Dec South Africa M3, % yy Nov 2019 6.9 7.3
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 2.1 (0.1) 2.4 (0.1)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 3.4 (0.1) 3.5 (-0.1)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 2.5 (0.2) 3.0 (0.2)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 11.9 (1.1) 11.6 (1.1)

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 6 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares gain as Trump fuels trade deal optimism, oil firm on OPEC+ output cut
  • Trump still upbeat on deal with Beijing despite gap over tariffs
  • Oil prices hold at recent highs as OPEC+ deepens cuts
  • Investors eye US jobs data, Fed’s policy decisions

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises, US crude trading 2-mth high after OPEC cut
  • Brent up 1 cent at $63.40 a barrel (0101GMT)
  • WTI up 2 cents at $58.45

Precious metals

  • Gold flat as risk sentiment rises on trade optimism; set for weekly rise
  • Spot gold flat at $1,475.51/oz. (0120GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,480.80/oz.

Grains

  • Soybean futures extend gains, linger near 9-day top
  • Soybean futures up more than 0.5% for the week
  • Corn futures down about 0.5% for the week
  • Wheat futures down 3% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 2019 corruption in Nigeria report release by NBS & UNODC
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa on working visit to Togo (6 Dec)
  • 7th OPEC & non-OPEC ministerial meeting in Vienna
  • South Africa FX reserves Nov-19 [prev. $54.53B]
  • South Africa state capture inquiry resumes

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • When did you last see an African video game hero? Asks Kenya’s Usiku Games
  • South Africa makes last-ditch move to save state airline
  • Ethiopia PM shoulld talk to media when collecting Peace Prize – Nobel committee
  • Full of promise? Refugees in Ethiopia impatient for right to work
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria kidnappings raise ship insurance jitters, offers ease
  • Sime Darby to sell Liberia plantation to local manufacturer – minister
  • Pirates kidnap 19 crew members from Greek tanker off Nigeria
  • Nigeria’s parliament passes record 10.59 trillion naira budget for 2020
  • Uber takes to streets of Ivory Coast in African expansion
  • South African rand stumbles on economic data
  • South Africa hit by power cuts as Eskom units break down
  • Half a million ebola vaccine doses to be stockpiled for emergency use
  • Kenya’s Safaricom tests new mobile savings service
  • Landslides in northwest Burundi kill at least 26 people
  • South African Airways to name business rescue practitioner soon
  • At least 58 dead after migrant boat sinks off Mauritanian coast
  • South Africa moves step closer to land expropriation without payments
  • Angola petroleum minister says he supports maintaining OPEC+ oil cuts
  • With memories of Rwanda: The Gambian minister taking on Suu Kyi
  • Measles toll in Congo exceeds 5,000, WHO says
  • Libya’s El Feel oilfield shut due to valve closure – NOC
  • Commercial International Bank Egypt seeks to buy small Kenyan bank
  • Almost half of land sold for first phase of Egypt’s new capital
  • Nigerian court orders security agency to release activist within 24 hours
  • Zimbabwe court appoints Mugabe daughter to identify his assets
  • Egypt to sell $1 bln in 1-yr dollar denominated t-bills on Dec. 9 – c.bank
  • South Africa business confidence improves in November
  • Sluggish demand for dollars supports Ugandan shilling
  • South Africa Q3 current account deficit narrows to 3.7% of GDP
  • Botswana’s Minergy puts UK listing plans on hold
  • OPEC and allies prepare to deepen oil output cuts
  • Kenya shilling firmer on scarce liquidity, remittances
  • Drought and economic woes empty Zimbabwe’s ‘cattle bank’
  • Uganda to borrow 600 mln euros to cover 2019/20 budget deficit
  • South African Airways in line for 4 bln rand boost to continue operating – minister

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters