#Africa #Markets | 19 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares rise on US earnings but trade worries rattle yuan
  • S&P 500 index at 5-mth peak on solid US earnings
  • Asian shares gain but lack market-lifting catalysts
  • China markets lag, yuan hits 1-yr low on tariff issues

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices extend gains, buoyed by unexpected drop in US gasoline stocks
  • Brent crude futures up 0.1 pct at $72.98 per barrel (0043GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures up 0.3 pct at $68.96 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold inches higher as US dollar eases
  • Spot gold up 0.1 pct at $1,227.55 an ounce (0058GMT)
  • US gold futures for August delivery little changed at $1,227.40 an ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans edge higher; wheat pauses after recent gains
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures unchanged at $4.94-1/2 per bushel (0101GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.1 pct at $3.61-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 0.2 pct at $8.59 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures up 0.7 pct at $11.91 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Ghana mid-year budget review today
  • South Africa’s central bank to announce interest rate decision [fcst. 6.5%, prev. 6.5%]

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • North Korea, Eritrea have highest rates of modern slavery – report
  • Too good to be true? Slum graffiti warns Kenyans about trafficking risks
  • Airbus inks deal to sell passenger planes to Uganda
  • Egypt determined to find Italian student’s killers – Sisi
  • Guinea’s mining minister says there will be Simandou deal, talks go on
  • Ethiopia asks Saudi for year’s worth of fuel, with payment delayed
  • Africa Crude – Nigerian loading programmes trickle out
  • South African rand dips on dollar resurgence, stocks rise
  • Ghana’s economy seen up to 40 pct bigger after data overhaul – officials
  • Nigerian police say 8 Boko Haram suspects confess to Chibok abduction
  • Light rail line in Nigeria’s capital opens to passengers
  • South Africa gold producers offer single-digit pay hikes to unions
  • Nigeria’s Senate to investigate “anomalies” in renewal of oil leases
  • Nigeria plans re-launch of national airline in December
  • Steinhoff extends ‘early bird’ lock-up fee deadline for second time
  • Equatorial Guinea targets CHC Helicopter in compliance crackdown
  • Flags, flowers greet first Ethiopia-Eritrea flight in 20 years
  • Obama urges Africa to do more to stem brain drain
  • Migrant rescue boat aims for Spain with bodies, shunning Italy
  • Kenya to launch Nairobi financial centre later this year – finmin
  • South Africa’s retail sales up 1.9 pct y/y in May
  • Ugandan shilling weakens as demand from energy, manufacturing firms weigh
  • Egypt remittances expected to rise nearly 50 pct to $26 bln for FY 2017-18
  • South Africa’s CPI rises to 4.6 pct y/y in June
  • UN says global fight against AIDS is at “precarious point”
  • Kenya shilling strengthens on tourism and horticulture inflows
  • Ethiopia says reforms “to unleash private sector”

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 19 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
07:00 Switzerland Balance of Trade 
09:30 UK Retail Sales YoY 
09:30 UK Retail Sales MoM 
09:30 UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM 
09:30 UK Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY 
10:00 Indonesia Interest Rate Decision 
11:00 Ireland GDP Growth Rate YoY 
11:00 Ireland GDP Growth Rate QoQ 
13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 
14:00 South Africa Interest Rate Decision 
14:00 US Fed Quarles Speech 
15:00 Brazil Business Confidence 
00:30 Japan Inflation Rate MoM 
00:30 Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY
NEWS
Dutch Jobless Rate Steady at 3.9% in June 
Australia Jobless Rate Holds at 6-Month Low of 5.4% 
Japan Imports Rise Only 2.5% YoY 
Japan June Trade Surplus Larger than Expected 
Jamaica Inflation Slows Down to 2.8% YoY 
European Shares Gain on Earnings 
US Crude Oil Inventories Rise in Latest Week 
Russia Producer Inflation at Near 7-Year High 
Russia Wages Rise More than Expected in June 
Russia Jobless Rate Holds Steady at Record Low 
US Building Permits Unexpectedly Fall in June 
US Housing Starts at 9-Month Low 
South Africa Retail Sales Rise 1.9% YoY in May 
US Mortgage Applications Drop in Latest Week: MBA

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

#Africa #Markets | 18 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Japan stocks bounce as yen bows before strong dollar
  • Nikkei hits 1-mth peak as dollar climbs on yen
  • Fed’s Powell sticks with gradual rate hikes
  • Gold sinks to 1-yr lows, oil eases on inventories

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices fall after surprise rise in US inventories
  • Brent crude futures down 0.6 pct at $71.76 a barrel (0027GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures down 0.4 pct at $67.82 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices steady as dollar firms after Fed comments
  • Spot gold largely unchanged at $1,227.16 an ounce (0047GMT)
  • US gold futures for August delivery little changed at $1,227 an ounce

Grains

  • Wheat jumps more than 1 pct to hit 8-day high
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 1.4 pct at $5.04-3/4 per bushel (0104GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.7 pct at $3.62-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 0.8 pct at $8.62 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures unchanged at $12.01 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Mandela Day in South Africa today; Ramaphosa to attend centenary celebrations in Eastern Cape province
  • Nigeria to unveil national airline today
  • South Africa inflation data for June expected [fcst. 4.6% yy, prev. 4.4%]
  • South Africa’s central bank MPC meeting enters day 2; decision tomorrow
  • Nigeria’s Buhari to wrap up trip to The Netherlands & The Hague

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Tunisia approves illegal enrichment law to strengthen anti-corruption fight
  • Two migrants die on boat left adrift by Libyan coast guard – charity
  • Guinea’s mining minister says there will be Simandou deal, talks go on
  • Algerian militant suspect expelled by France will be retried – sources
  • Bullet wounds and little aid for Cameroonians fleeing Anglophone conflict
  • South Africa’s Solidarity union to agree wage deal with Eskom – source
  • Obama says world should resist cynicism over rise of strongmen
  • Migrants in Libya face rising threat from ‘stronger’ gangs and traffickers
  • Africa Crude – Traders await Nigerian loading programmes
  • Universal Music Group to open Nigeria division
  • Egypt names first five state companies to float shares under privatisation scheme
  • South Africa’s rand retreats as bears await rate decision; stocks up
  • Kenya Power CEO, senior managers granted bail
  • Kenya launches investigation into rhino deaths
  • Egypt targest social media with new law
  • Nigeria’s Buhari sends $750 mln supplementary budget to lawmakers
  • Prince Harry and Meghan visit Nelson Mandela tribute in London
  • Dubai’s Emaar Properties says to double investments in Egypt
  • Tullow Oil may halt Kenyan oilfield operations due to protest
  • Angola to export 47 crude cargoes in Sept., adds new grade
  • Almost 300 Malians killed this year in militia clashes – UN
  • Egypt’s parliament passes $11 billion sovereign wealth fund
  • Kenyan shilling firms as banks seek local currency to meet regulatory rules
  • South Africa’s Amplats, PIC create venture fund to lift PGM industrial demand
  • South African consumer confidence dips, but still higher than expected – survey

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 18 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
09:00 South Africa Inflation Rate YoY 
09:30 UK Inflation Rate MoM 
09:30 UK Core Inflation Rate YoY 
09:30 UK Inflation Rate YoY 
10:00 Euro Area Inflation Rate MoM 
10:00 Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Final 
10:00 Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final 
10:00 Euro Area Construction Output YoY 
13:30 US Housing Starts MoM 
13:30 US Building Permits MoM 
13:30 US Housing Starts 
13:30 US Building Permits 
14:00 Russia Unemployment Rate 
15:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testimony
NEWS
Malaysia June Inflation Rate at Near 3-1/2 Year Low of 0.8% 
Thailand Car Sales Jump 25.9% in June 
Australia Leading Economic Index Flat in June 
Panama Economic Activity Growth Falls to Near 9-Year Low 
US Stocks Close Higher on Tuesday 
US Treasury International Capital Flows Beat Expectations 
Argentina Inflation Rate at Over 2-Year High 
European Shares Gain on Powell Testimony, Earnings 
Angola Cuts Interest Rate to 16.5% 
Colombia Consumer Morale Highest Since 2015 
Fed Chair Sets Positive Tone for the Economy 
US NAHB Housing Market Index Steady in July 
Senegal Industrial Output Falls the Most in 10 Months 
Cape Verde Inflation Rate Rises to 9-Month High in June

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

#Africa #Markets | 17 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks sag after oil slides, dollar steady before Fed speech
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 0.5 pct, Nikkei adds 0.5 pct
  • Prospect of supply increase weighs on crude oil
  • Currencies await Fed Powell’s first congressional testimony

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices rise from 3-mth low as more Norwegian oil workers strike
  • Brent crude futures up 0.5 pct at $72.20 per barrel (0106GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures up 3 cents at $68.09 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices flat as dollar steady ahead of Fed speech
  • Spot gold steady at $1,239.60 an ounce (0039GMT)
  • US gold futures for August delivery unchanged at $1,239.70 an ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans firm 1 pct to hit 5-day high on USDA condition report
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.5 pct at $4.91 per bushel (0059GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 1.2 pct at $3.59-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 1.0 pct at $8.54-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures down 0.3 pct at $12.02 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Barack Obama in South Africa for Mandela lecture today, day before 18 July Mandela Day. [Mr Obama was in Kenya yesterday]
  • South Africa consumer confidence data for Q2 2018 expected [prev. 26]
  • Nigeria’s Buhari in The Netherlands, to address International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague today on the 20th anniversary of its adoption of the ICC Rome Statute
  • South Africa’s central bank 3-day MPC meeting starts today (17-19 July)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • In job-short South Africa, ‘dating service’ gets young people into work
  • Mass radio campaign saves thousands of child lives in Africa
  • South Africa’s talks tough on mine safety, says to engage tribal chiefs on land
  • Bank of Ghana annuls Belstar Capital purchase of control of ADB
  • Egypt passes law that could shield top military brass from prosecution
  • Liberia’s Weah takes steps to tackle inflation, poverty
  • Thousands of Congolese threatened by national park oil plans – activists
  • Egypt’s ex-military chief of staff Sami Anan in “critical” condition – sources
  • Africa Crude – Angolan programme emerges, Nigerian progs awaited
  • About 20 Nigerian soldiers missing after Boko Haram clash – sources
  • Kenya Power’s CEO charged in court over economic crime
  • Egypt to offer citizenship to foreigners for $400k deposit
  • South African rand firmer in scramble ahead of rates decision, stocks sag
  • France expels Islamist to Algeria
  • Kenya Power appoints an acting CEO after incumbent charged with economic crime
  • Gunmen kill 14 civilians in northeast Mali village
  • Obama urges Kenyan leaders to soothe ethnic tensions
  • South Africa’s Solidarity union on verge of wage settlement with Eskom – source
  • Strike halts gold production at Randgold’s Ivory Coast mine
  • Angola reopens May 2048 dollar bond
  • Wheaton in streaming deal with gold miner Sibanye
  • Russia may borrow $1 bln from BRICS devpt bank – minister
  • Eritrea reopens embassy in Addis Ababa in fresh sign of thaw with Ethiopia
  • Wheaton to pay Sibanye $500 mln for some gold, palladium assets
  • 8 migrants found dead in lorry container in western Libya
  • IMF team due in Zambia to discuss its debt levels
  • Namibia’s economy to grow by 1 pct in 2018 – finmin
  • Ugandan shilling extends gains on interbank sell-off
  • Kenya Power’s board says operations not affected by arrests
  • Kenyan shilling strengthens against the dollar
  • Amplats expects first-half profit to more than quadruple
  • New products, standards buoy Islamic trade finance business

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel | Reporter’s Notebook: At the Afreximbank annual meetings (#AfreximAM18)

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

In the week past, I was in Abuja for the annual meetings of the Cairo-based African Export-Import Bank (11-14 July.) Afreximbank was also celebrating its silver jubilee; it was established in 1993. It was a hectic four days. Even so, I still managed to do a few things outside of the meetings. To do so, I had to forego what turned out to be some good speeches or panel discussions, however. Otherwise, one would never get the time or the opportunity to do so; especially as with almost all events, the schedule is dynamic – as the presence of invited special guests are confirmed or not, for instance. Thankfully, there were more than a tad eminent personalities that graced the occasion. I wish Rwanda’s Paul Kagame and Ghana’s Nana Akufo-Addo were able to attend, though. But as the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, opened the meetings, it was just as well I guess.

Tweets matter
I was a little surprised by how relatively few participants live-tweeted the meetings. Monitoring the news and markets from my workstation in Lagos most of the time, I have found such generous tweets to be most helpful for following key international events; the IMF/World Bank meetings, for instance. Thus, I make it a point to do likewise whenever I attend one. And I did; to the extent I could. Since not everyone can attend these often exclusive events, tweets from participants tend to be much followed by those either not attending or cannot attend. I do not know if it is a deliberate refrain by Nigerian media practitioners, but there is a lot that is missed even for participants otherwise. For even if the entire event were to be filmed the entire time – as indeed this one was – and the videos readily available, it is doubtful anyone other than the video editors would have enough time to watch them all.

Ironically, people from these parts often bandy about aphorisms like “no man is an island” and so on; often to serve a selfish purpose. But the egalitarianism that is supposed to be the consequence of such a lesson is rarely put to action by most. The key question is what is the best way in media to be of service to as many people as possible in the most efficient way. Before the internet and social media, there were not that many options. Privileged journalists, analysts and the like, who hitherto were amongst the very few that could “let other people in” into these exclusive events wielded their power often to their benefit. With social media, that privilege is now available to anyone who wishes it.

Even so, I have observed a certain level of conservatism amongst some journalists from these parts. Not all of them. On the final day (14 July) of #AfreximAM18, as I sought a good position to get a good picture snap of the Nigerian president, Muhammadu Buhari, as he exited after his speech, it was the not so conservative few in the room that enabled me get a sense of what was happening inside the hall before. Why was I outside? I arrived late; deliberately. The only key event of interest to me that final day was the president’s speech. However, I thought, as is often the case in these parts, the VIP would arrive late. Mr Buhari was prompt. And in line with protocol, the doors were shut once he got inside. It was a pleasant surprise. “Nigerian time”, the deliberate tardiness of Nigerian VIPs has become such an institution that it is taken for granted. How did that come about? During the military era, and even now, secret service agents (or other security or private agents of VIPs) would survey a venue ahead of the arrival of their principals. This was done (and still is) for security reasons and social ones as well; if the event is not well-attended, the VIP might choose not to attend, for instance.

Threads for those interested
If you are interested in getting a good feel of the 4-day meetings, you could go to my Twitter handle (@DrRafiqRaji) or search these two hashtags together (“#RR #AfreximAM18”). In the thread, you will find slides from some very excellent presentations. You would certainly find the one on “Nigeria’s Trade & Investment Prospects” quite useful. Another, on the “Investment Prospects for ECOWAS under the AfCFTA”, is also quite rich. You might also want to check my live-tweets (#RR #AdebayoAdedeji”) of the memorial symposium held in Lagos on 7 July 2018 by the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) in honour of their former executive secretary, Prof. Adebayo Adedeji, who died recently. If God wills, I should do a reporter’s notebook on it in due course. But now, I have articles to write. Till next time.

Also published in my BusinessDay Nigeria newspaper column (Tuesdays)

#Global #Markets | 17 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
09:00 South Africa Consumer Confidence 
09:00 Poland Employment Growth YoY 
09:00 UK BoE Gov Carney Speech 
09:15 Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY 
09:30 UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus 
09:30 UK Unemployment Rate 
09:30 UK Claimant Count Change 
09:30 UK Employment Change 
14:15 US Industrial Production MoM 
14:15 US Industrial Production YoY 
15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index 
15:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testimony 
21:00 US Overall Net Capital Flows 
21:00 US Net Long-Term Tic Flows
NEWS
China Q2 Industrial Capacity Utilization Rises Slightly 
No Strong Case for A Near-Term Rate Adjustment: RBA 
Singapore NODX Rises Less than Expected in June 
New Zealand Inflation Rate Climbs in Q2 
New Zealand Services PMI at 66-Month Low 
Peru Economy Expands 6.4% YoY in May 
UK Shares Slump Amid Falls in Commodity Stocks 
Botswana Trade Deficit Widens in April 
Oil Prices Drop 3% 
US Business Inventories Rise 0.4% in May 
Russia Industrial Output Growth Slows to 6-Month Low 
Sri Lanka Service Activity Rises the Most in 6 Months 
Sri Lanka Manufacturing Growth Eases in June 
Dominican Republic Inflation Rate Highest Since 2013

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research