macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 28 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • World stocks set for worst week since 2008 as virus fears grip markets
  • MSCI ACWI down 9%, S&P500 in correction in just 6 days
  • Investors shun risk assets as coronavirus spreads globally
  • Safe-haven assets in demand, US yield curve firmly inverted

Oil Markets (Bloomberg)

  • Oil’s worst week since 2011 puts pressure on OPEC+ to respond
  • OPEC’s top official says group showing renewed commitment
  • WTI extend losses Friday, taking weekly drop to around 14%
  • Brent down 2.2% at $51.01 a barrel (0407GMT, 27 Feb)
  • WTI down 2.6% at $45.85 (0407GMT, 27 Feb)
  • Brent at $50.85 (0533GMT, 28 Feb (ICE))
  • WTI at $45.56 (0553GMT, 28 Feb (ICE))

Precious metals

  • Gold rises as coronavirus fuels global slowdown worries
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,645.79/oz. (0055GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.1% at $1,644.20/oz.


  • Wheat set for biggest monthly drop in 7 amid pandemic fears
  • Wheat down 0.3% at $5.26 a bushel (0119GMT)
  • Wheat down 5.1% month thus far
  • Soybean futures up 2.5% so far this month
  • Corn futures down 3.5% for the month

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s EFF protest march on loadshedding & Eskom privatisation
  • Germany’s Steinmeier in Sudan; 27-28 Feb
  • Kenya’s constitutional review consultation forum in Meru (29 Feb); Kenyatta & Odinga to attend
  • South Africa M3 Jan-20 [act. 7.0% yy, fcst. 6.6%, prev. 6.2%]
  • South Africa PSCE Jan-20 [act. 5.0% yy, fcst. 5.5%, prev. 6.1%]
  • South Africa trade balance Jan-20 [prev. ZAR14.8B]
  • Nigeria manufacturing PMI Feb-20 [prev. 59.2]
  • Nigeria FX reserves Feb-20 [prev. $38.1B]
  • Zambia inflation Feb-20 [fcst. 12.5% yy, prev. 13.2%]
  • Kenya inflation Feb-20 [fcst. 5.2% yy, prev. 5.8%]
  • Uganda inflation Feb-20 [fcst. 3.4% yy, prev. 3.4%]
  • Ghana’s Akufo-Addo Europe (Norway, UK, Switzerland, & Belgium) tour; 22 Feb – 4 Mar

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Nigeria confirms first case of coronavirus
  • Train accident in northern Egypt injures 38
  • Namibia economy shrunk by 1.9% in 2019 but set to recover – central bank
  • Embalo sworn in as Guinea-Bissau president, election remains in dispute
  • South Africa president orders repatriation of citizens in Wuhan over coronavirus
  • Moody’s sees ‘elevated’ risks to South Africa budget forecasts
  • Africa Oil – Bonga April loading dates slow to emerge
  • Eni, Naturgy clinch deal that will reopen Egypt’s Damietta LNG plant by June
  • Nigeria police free children, pregnant teens from ‘baby factory’
  • Nigeria’s [terrorists] targeting Christians to prove religious war, says minister
  • Anger as Somali rapist and murder pays 75 camels to escape death
  • Malawi legalises cannabis for medicine and industrial fibres
  • South Africa’s Steinhoff sales rise in Christmas quarter on strong Pepco performance
  • Kenya Airways names budget subsidiary’s boss as new CEO
  • Rand falters as public wage cuts may not save South Africa’s credit rating
  • South Africa unit of Philip Morris welcomes tax stance on cigarette alternatives
  • France says Mali envoy is spreading fake news over its troops
  • Zambia, Uganda currencies seen softening, Kenya’s to firm; in week ahead
  • Running out of time: East Africa faces new locust threat
  • South Africa’s Massmart falls to annual loss; no dividend
  • Flights resume at Libya’s Mitiga
  • Kenya university berated for blaming “reckless” rape victim
  • Zimbabwe state power company to increase electricity tariff by 19.02%
  • Uganda shilling extends losses on the back of banks’ demand
  • Shelling stops flights at Tripoli’s Mitiga airport – statement
  • Kenya shilling inches up on sluggish demand for dollars
  • Kizomba – Angola’s answer to Salsa – gaining global following
  • South Africa’s Implats further delays closure of some shafts
  • South Africa’s Massmart swings to annual headline loss, no dividend
  • South Africa’s Impala Platinum says H1 earnings rise 41%
  • Tunisia’s parliament approves a coalition govt

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

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