macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 12 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia shares left guessing on trade, await Trump speech
  • Shares mark time in Asia, bonds bounce a little
  • Awaiting Trump speech in New York for news on trade
  • Reports Trump to delay auto tariffs on EU for 6 mths
  • Sterling holds gains after Boris gets a Brexit boost

Oil Markets

  • Oil dips for 2nd day on lack of trade talk progress
  • Brent down 0.2% at $62.04 a barrel (0256GMT)
  • WTI down 0.3% at $56.68 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold flat as investors shift focus to Trump speech
  • Spot gold flat at $1,455.55/oz. (0057GMT)
  • US gold futures unchanged at $1,456.60/oz.

Grains

  • Soybean futures rebound from 1-mth low
  • Soybean futures up 0.1% at $9.17-3/4 per bushel (0148GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.73-3/4 per bushel
  • Wheat futures little changed at $5.05-3/4 per bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • International Conference on Population & Development (ICPD) in Nairobi; 12-14 Nov
  • 2019 Africa investment forum by AfDB et al. in Johannesburg; 11-13 Nov
  • Lesotho PM Thabane in Kenya

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Guinea president replaces security minister following deadly protests
  • Jordan, UAE, Turkey, Sudan accused of violating sanctions on Libya – UN report
  • Ghana to finalise $600 mln cocoa loan package this week
  • Kenya hosts global sexual health summit amid protests from Catholics, pro-life groups
  • Africa Oil – Spot muted after previous flurry of sales
  • South Africa’s rand weaker on China-US trade deal delay
  • Nigeria’s mental health system routinely chains patients up, says Human Rights Watch
  • After fanfare, new Zimbabwe banknotes fail to arrive
  • Egypt sells 695 mln euros in euro-denominated t-bills – central bank
  • Gambia files Rohingya genocide case against Myanmar at World Court – justice minister
  • Reopening of Boungou mine in Burkina will depend on security – Semafo
  • Founder of South African asset manager Allan Gray dies at 81
  • South Africa’s MultiChoice H1 profits rise 22%
  • South Africa – Johannesburg seeks to avert ‘ecological disaster’ from beetle-infested trees
  • African oil states offer new deals to lure more selective investors
  • South Africa’s Absa to open New York office by end of the year
  • Egypt’s core inflation rises to 2.7% in Oct from 2.6% in Sept – c.bank
  • Drought-hit Zimbabwe readies mass wildlife migration
  • Egypt has imported rice reserves through first week of February – minister
  • Congo central bank lowers 2019 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%
  • Egypt targets 6.4% growth, 6.2% deficit in fiscal 2020/2021 – finance ministry
  • Kenyan shilling firms to 4-mth high, helped by remittances
  • ArcelorMittal South Africa to close Saldanha operation
  • South Africa’s Aspen to sell Japan business to Novartis in bid to reduce debt
  • South Africa’s Vodacom H1 profits rise 19%

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares give up gains as HK chaos hits sentiment
  • Focus on US-China trade talks
  • Gold near 3-mth lows

Oil Markets

  • Oil slips on jitters over US-China trade talks progress
  • Brent down 0.6% at $62.12 a barrel (0117GMT)
  • WTI down 0.6% at $56.89

Precious metals

  • Gold inches up on concerns over trade deal, disappointing China data
  • Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,462.46/oz. (0110GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,463.30/oz.

Grains

  • Corn falls on stronger dollar, USDA estimate caps losses
  • Corn futures down 0.5% at $3.75-1/4 a bushel (0116GMT)
  • Soybean futures down 0.4% at $9.27-3/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.5% at $5.07-1/2 per bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 2019 Africa investment forum by AfDB et al. in Johannesburg; 11-13 Nov

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Congo army kills leader of splinter Hutu militia group
  • Malta had deal with Libya coastguard over migrant interceptions – report
  • QP says Egyptian Refining Company Refinery now operating, to reach full production Q1 2020
  • Congolese forces kill 25 Islamist rebels in eastern offensive – army
  • Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation falls to 3.1% in October
  • ‘So many dead’: Survivors describe terrifying Burkina Faso ambush
  • Guinea-Bissau newly appointed PM resigns under pressure from ECOWAS
  • Tunisia’s moderate Islamist party may choose outside candidate as PM
  • Morocco’s Attijariwafa bank gets $5 bln from China’s Exim for Africa export fund
  • Mauritius elects incumbent PM for 5-yr term
  • Africa Oil – Flurry of spot cargoes sell as new IMO rules loom
  • Zimbabwe fires 211 striking doctors as economy worsens
  • South Africa power cuts hurt rand as they put economy under more pressure
  • Zimbabwe suspends South African livestock imports after foot and mouth outbreak
  • Libya’s NOC boosts production capacity at Nafoora oil field
  • Kenya passes data protection law crucial for tech investments
  • Nigeria’s Dangote enters Togo with fertiliser and cement deals
  • Vodacom Tanzania’s H1 core earnings rise on M-Pesa, data revenue
  • No apologies: Africans say their need for oil cash outweighs climate concerns
  • Mauritius starts counting votes after parliamentary election
  • Kenyan shilling firmer on offshore investor inflows
  • South Africa’s Steinhoff says could issue shares to help settle lawsuits
  • South Africa’s Tiger Brands looking at sale of processed meats business
  • Power cuts hit South Africa’s rand
  • South Africa’s Gold Fields maintains annual production outlook
  • Africa must quadruple power investment to supply electricity for all, IEA says

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

Culture & Doing Business in Africa

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

I present a cultural framework for investing in Sub-Saharan Africa. If you are looking to invest in Africa, it is important to be aware of the cultural characteristics of the various countries and how they affect the likelihood of success. In general, most African countries have collectivist cultures. Still, there are differences. South Africa ranks relatively high for individualism, for instance.

I rely on the 2019 soft power rankings by the Nanyang Centre for Emerging Markets (CEM) Singapore for a quantifiable proxy for culture. Thereafter, I juxtapose this culture proxy with the 2019 World Bank Doing Business rankings to identify countries with cultural characteristics and business environments likely to make investing in them worthwile endeavours. And for the selected countries, I identify the sectors that are best suited to these characteristics.

The framework differentiates between investments aimed at production, consumption or both. Because even when the production of a good or service may not be ideally suited for some countries, consumption via importation may be viable. So, for instance, high-end goods, which may not be ideally suited for production in many African countries ex-South Africa, in light of the individualism-innovation nexus, may still do very well if imported, since collectivist face-saving cultures make even those not well-to-do aspire to the consumption of high-end goods.

Based on CEM’s 2019 Emerging Market Rankings[1], I identify the following top 2-3 countries for each region as ideal investment destinations. Botswana is the only African country in the rankings’ 2nd-level “accelerating” EM countries. South Africa and Namibia are the only SSA countries in the 3rd-level “intermediate” EM countries category, while the remainder Ghana, Senegal, Rwanda, Uganda, and Kenya form part of the penultimate 4th level “early” EM countries category of the rankings.

These choices correlate with the cultural thesis of my prior “culture and development” paper[2], which put Southern African countries on top. The CEM 2019 Soft Power Ranking[3] similarly identifies South Africa, Namibia, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Rwanda as the top 5 SSA countries with soft power. I recommend the top 2 countries in each region based on these indices. They are thus Botswana & South Africa (Southern Africa), Ghana & Senegal (West Africa) and Rwanda & Kenya (East Africa).

Figure 1: SP-DB mapping of African countries

Thus, my framework relies on these factors – culture, doing business ranking, EM status, & soft power ranking – to recommend sectors in Africa that are likely to be successfully tapped by foreign investors. I rely on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)[4] in this regard.

  1. Energy

Oil & gas exploration decisions are not primarily culture-based. If there is no prospect of finding oil & gas resources in a jurisdiction, it does not matter what cultural variables there are. But in areas where exploration does take place, culture does matter. The pervasive and entrenched corruption in the Nigerian oil & gas industry has cultural underpinnings, for instance.[5] There is also a cultural element to why a robust indigenous value chain around oil & gas exploration has been elusive in Nigeria, the continent’s top oil producer. Government-owned refineries, the only ones in any case, are moribund or underperforming. Instead, fuel is largely imported.

Would it be profitable for a foreign investor to invest in a refinery in Nigeria, say? It is highly unlikely without local support. But a local investor like Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, who is currently building a refinery in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, is incidentally likely to be successful, however. This is because in addition to his having access to foreign capital, he is also fully enmeshed in the political, social and cultural fabric of Nigerian society.[6] A foreign investor looking to invest in the sector would thus be well-advised to invest through such an influential local investor; if at all.

  1. Materials

A good example in this regard is cement manufacturing, which with increased automation, no longer requires as much manpower as in the past. And with automation comes requirements for new skillsets and know-how, most of which are scarce on the African continent and take time and resources to acquire locally. Top-tier management talent is also in short supply. The pan-African success of Nigeria’s Dangote Industries, which relies a great deal on Indian expatriates, who are world-renowned for their work ethic[7], to fill the skills gap bears lessons in this regard.[8] So even when an investment decision on a materials venture on the continent relies on where the key raw material is located, disadvantages related to skilled labour and capital could easily be overcome with foreign alternatives.

The success of the Chinese in illegal Ghanaian gold mining, which contiunes unabated despite government action, is also a case in point.[9] Chinese entrenchment in Ghana’s mining sector is on the back of a pervasive local culture of artisanal-type but illegal “galamsey” small-scale mining practice. With many poor Ghanaians dependent on galamsey for their livelihoods, and the Chinese now major players, it has become very difficult for the government to clean up the sector. The illegality is not at all endorsed here. But the cultural element as a factor in the success of the Chinese in the Ghanaian gold mining industry is noteworthy.

  1. Industrials

Aerospace & defence, machinery and transportation industry groups thrive in innovative cultures. Southern African countries are ideal. They score highest for individualism and other relevant cultural dimensions. Incidentally, these industry groups already thrive in South Africa. Would they do similarly well in the identified countries in East and West Africa? The low scoring for individualism and high power distance rankings do not recommend them well for such investments.

  1. Consumer Discretionary

Downstream automobile production is enjoying a resurgence in Africa. Foreign brands have set up bases (or plan to) in Rwanda, Kenya and Ghana.[10],[11],[12] Unsurprisingly, much more upstream activities (e.g. design) take place in South Africa, which already has a thriving automobile industry. There is easily a cultural explanation for why the labour-intensive but less innovative downstream activities (e.g. assembly) are more viable in East and West Africa while a broader spectrum of the value chain thrives in South Africa. On the consumption side, however, almost every African country qualifies.

Retailing (apparel, etc.) is also more lucrative in South Africa, where a mall culture is already entrenched. The case of South African retailer Woolworths is instructive.[13] When it expanded to West & East Africa, it failed. Still, its business continues to thrive in South Africa. Incidentally, relatively small-scale local retailers, who import apparels etc., thrive in these same West & East African countries.

  1. Consumer Staples

Food & staple retailing has been found to be successful in almost all African countries. South African retailer Shoprite’s success in its African ventures is a good example; albeit they are floundering lately. And while largely a low-cost retailer, this has not been primarily the source of its competitive edge in its operations outside South Africa. A local culture of projecting success in Nigeria, say, means a visit by the average shopper to Shoprite during the weekend is more than just about shopping.[14] In general, food, beverage & tobacco investments have been similarly successful across the continent. Still, foreign and local firms involved in the industry have had to rely on robust market research on local cultures to succeed.

  1. Healthcare

High-end pharma activities are largely not viable in most African countries. Still, when a venture relies on certain local factors for success, it is still feasible. 54gene, a Nigerian healthcare startup, leverages on the local population for Africa-focused genetics research.[15] That is, even as local expertise is scarce. Diaspora expertise fills this gap. And much of its output feeds into ventures abroad. So, this is an example of a high-end innovative venture that uses the advantages of a large population and overcomes the expertise constraint using highly qualified diaspora Africans who also understand the local culture.

  1. Financials

There are now quite a number of pan-African banks; mostly headquartered from South Africa & Nigeria. Insurance has not been similarly successful across Africa, with West Africa the continental laggard.[16] Insurance unsurprisingly thrives in South Africa, which scores high on individualism and low on power distance. I would not advise foreign investments in the insurance sector in West & East Africa, for instance. But my framework would certainly recommend one in South Africa.

  1. Information Technology

Only southern Africa comes close to being well-suited for high-end tech hardware and semiconductor production. The latter is virtually non-existent on the continent, in any case. Low-end tech hardware like PC assembly could thrive almost anywhere. But such low-end tech hardware production is already being phased out. A Chinese firm manufactures phones on the continent, though.[17] Software and services, on the other hand, could be viable in most African countries. The success of Nigerian tech talent firm Andela is a good example. Call centres would certainly also thrive across the continent, since talking is a favourite past-time.

  1. Communication Services

Collectivism, high power distance scores, etc. support talking as a past-time in most African countries. The huge success of South Africa’s MTN in Nigeria is an ideal case of how an investment decision based on a cultural practice proved to be quite profitable.

  1. Utilities

Except for South African countries, where there is relatively high state capacity, my framework would not recommend an investment in the African utilities sector; not in the traditional way, at least. Innovative solutions like off-grid, solar & other renewable power solutions are proving to be viable, though. But they tend to be development-oriented and better suited for NGO-type ventures.

  1. Real Estate

My framework would not recommend REITS ex-South Africa. There is a culture of direct house ownership for those who can afford it. And for rented real estate, there is a huge informal element in most African countries.

 

Appendix
Table 1: Soft Power v Doing Business

Soft Power Ranking Doing Business Ranking
South Africa 19 82
Tunisia 29 80
Botswana 31 86
Namibia 40 107
Ghana 41 114
Morocco 47 60
Senegal 52 141
Egypt 54 120
Sierra Leone 55 163
Kenya 57 61
Zambia 61 87
Rwanda 62 29
Algeria 65 157
Malawi 66 111
Gabon 68 169
Mauritania 69 148
Ivory Coast 73 122
Uganda 74 127
Zimbabwe 75 155
Burkina Faso 76 151
The Gambia 77 149
Tanzania 78 144
Togo 79 137
Madagascar 80 161
Guinea 81 152
Nigeria 82 146
Mozambique 85 135
Libya 86 186
Angola 87 173
Mali 88 145
Niger 89 143
Cameroon 91 166
Congo Repubic 92 180
Chad 93 181
Sudan 95 162
Burundi 96 168
CAR 99 183
DRC 100 184
South Sudan 102 185

Source: Nanyang CEM, World Bank

 

References
[1] Nanyang Centre for Emerging Markets (2019). 2019 Emerging Market (EM) Rankings: Feeling the pulse of an investor. Retrieved from http://www.nbs.ntu.edu.sg/Research/ResearchCentres/CEM/Research/Pages/Annual-Emerging-Market-Rankings.aspx

[2] Raji (2019). Culture & development: The case of Africa. Available at https://rafiqraji.com/2019/10/31/culture-development-the-case-of-africa/

[3] Nanyang Centre for Emerging Markets (2019). Revisiting Soft Power: 2019 Rankings. Retrieved from http://www.nbs.ntu.edu.sg/Research/ResearchCentres/CEM/Research/Pages/Annual-emerging-market-soft-power-index.aspx

[4] S&P Global & MSCI (2018). Global Industry Classification Standard. Retrieved from https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/documents/112727-gics-mapbook_2018_v3_letter_digitalspreads.pdf

[5] Ehiemua, S. (2015). Nigeria crude oil: Sources of corruption and economic disparity in the nation. European Journal of Research in Social Sciences, 3 (4), 76-83. Retrieved from https://www.idpublications.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/NIGERIA-CRUDE-OIL-SOURCES-OF-CORRUPTION-AND-ECONOMIC-DISPARITY-IN-THE-NATION.pdf

[6] Akinyoade, A & Uche, C. (2016). Dangote Cement: An African success story? ASC Working Paper 131/2016. Leiden: African Studies Centre. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Akinyinka_Akinyoade/publication/311596676_Dangote_Cement_an_African_success_story/links/58502a6108aecb6bd8d20efb/Dangote-Cement-an-African-success-story.pdf

[7] Indians are most hardworking workforce in the world: Survey. (2018, November 8). Financial Express. Retrieved from https://www.financialexpress.com/jobs/indians-are-most-hardworking-workforce-in-the-world-survey/1377344/

[8] Akinosho, T. (2017, December 21). Aliko and the 40 Indians. Africa Oil + Gas Report. Retrieved from https://africaoilgasreport.com/2017/12/kickstarter/aliko-and-the-40-indians/

[9] Burrows, E. & Bird, L. (2017, May 30). Gold, guns and China: Ghana’s fight to end galamsey. African Arguments. Retrieved from https://africanarguments.org/2017/05/30/gold-guns-and-china-ghanas-fight-to-end-galamsey/

[10] Uwiringiyimana, C. (2018, June 26). Volkswagen opens Rwanda’s first car plant. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-rwanda/volkswagen-opens-rwandas-first-car-plant-idUSKBN1JN0NF

[11] Herbling, D. (2018, April 6). Nissan eyes bigger East African market with Kenya auto plant. Bloomberg. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/nissan-eyes-bigger-east-african-market-with-kenyan-vehicle-plant

[12] Leggett, D. (2018). VW to invest in Ghana and Nigeria. Just Auto. Retrieved from https://www.just-auto.com/news/vw-to-invest-in-ghana-and-nigeria_id184309.aspx

[13] Minto, R. (2013, November 7). Woolworths: Nigeria not so easy. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/a3539fad-e61a-3665-9a60-e9a1035d2b2f

[14] Chutel, L. (2016, December 1). Shopping Right: The grocery chain that became Africa’s biggest retailer by betting on its middle class. Quartz. Retrieved from https://qz.com/africa/833966/the-grocery-chain-that-became-africas-biggest-retailer-by-betting-on-its-middle-class/

[15] Monks, K. (2019, September 26). Unlocking the life-saving secrets of African DNA. CNN. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/26/health/unlocking-the-life-saving-secrets-of-african-dna-intl/index.html

[16] Davis Jr, K. (2013, September 7). The state of West and Central Africa’s insurance industry. Ventures Africa. Retrieved from http://venturesafrica.com/state-west-central-africas-insurance-industry/

[17] Kazeem, Y. (2019, March 29). The biggest mobile phone maker in Africa is going public in China. Quartz. Retrieved from https://qz.com/africa/1583473/chinas-transsion-of-african-tecno-phones-to-ipo-in-shanghai/

macroafricaintel Weekly | 11 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
13 Nov South Africa Retail Sales, % yy Sep 2019 2.2 1.1
14 Nov South Africa Mining Production, % yy Sep 2019 -2.2 -3.2
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2019 2.5 (0.2) 3.0 (0.1)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2019 3.7 (0.1) 3.4 (-0.1)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2019 3.2 (0.3) 3.3 (0.3)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2019 11.7 (1.1) 11.2 (1.0)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2019 3.9 (0.3) 4.1 (0.3)

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 8 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks close in on record highs on US-China trade deal hopes
  • MSCI’s global gauge near record 2018 peak
  • Beijing says US, China agree to cancel tariffs in phases
  • Sources say the plan meets opposition within White House
  • Bond yields soar

Oil Markets

  • Oil drops on doubts US-China trade deal will be signed soon, rising US stockpiles
  • Brent down 11 cents at $62.18 a barrel
  • WTI down 22 cents at $56.93

Precious metals

  • Gold a tad firmer at $1,468.78/oz.
  • Hit 5-week low of $1,460.7/oz. on Thursday

Grains

  • Soybeans set for weekly loss as US-China trade deal unsigned
  • Soybean futures down nearly 0.5% for the week
  • Corn futures down more than 3% for the week
  • Wheat futures down 0.5% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Results of Mauritius general election expected
  • Africa oil week; 4-8 Nov
  • Week-long celebrations in South Africa; after Rugby World Cup win
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Africa must quadruple power investment to supply electricity for all, IEA says
  • Australia’s Perenti says 19 of its employees killed in Burkina Faso attack
  • South Africa’s Eskom warns of more power cuts on Thursday
  • Tunisia’s main parties refuse new government led by moderate Islamists
  • US imposes sanctions on leader of Mali Islamist militant group
  • War crimes judges jail Congolese warlord Ntaganda for 30 years
  • Africa Oil – Sellers of Nigerian crude raise offer levels
  • Sudan president, ex-rebel leader agree to delay unity govt – Uganda
  • South Africa’s rand boosted by US-China trade deal hopes, stocks inch up
  • Rivals promise better wealth distribution as Mauritius votes
  • DRC – Glencore strikes deal with Katanga over $5.8 bln rights issue
  • African pay-TV group Multichoice forecasts profit rise
  • South Africa sees new Saudi-backed $10 bln refinery onstream by 2028
  • South Africa manufacturing, business confidence falls take shine off investment drive
  • Africa FX – Bank stock investors seen supporting Kenyan shilling
  • Axian, ECP to acquire majority stake in Togo state telco
  • Kenya’s president finalises removal of rate cap for banks
  • South African retailer TFG’s H1 profits up 3%
  • Congo disputes Canadian miner Banro’s suspension of operations
  • South Africa’s manufacturing down 2.4% y/y in September
  • Congo Republic: Kosmos, Eni-Lukoil consortium succeed in 2018/19 round
  • Angola to name licensing winners in April, new round in Jan – ANPG official
  • Senegal’s new energy bid process to ensure transparency – state firm
  • Hamstrung Zimbabwe miners call to keep export earnings in dollars
  • Uganda shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • South Africa business confidence dips in Oct. as blackouts unnerve investors
  • Saipem wins $100 mln Equatorial Guinea pipeline contract
  • Court postpones hearing for 7th time for Tanzanian journalist jailed since July
  • South African drugstore Dis-Chem half year profits fall
  • South Africa’s net foreign reserves rise to $44.6 bln in Oct
  • Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan to try to resolve dam dispute by Jan. 15 – Treasury

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 7 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks stymied by trade talk frustration
  • Nikkei idles near 13-mth high, most markets flat
  • Reuters reports phase 1 trade deal delayed to Dec
  • Bonds bounce, dollar cedes some gains to yen

Oil Markets

  • Oil unchanged after overnight losses amid caution over trade talks
  • Brent flat at $61.74 a barrel (0158GMT)
  • WTI down 3 cents at $56.32

Precious metals

  • Gold little changed as investors seek clarity on trade negotiations
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,490.89/oz. (0107GMT)
  • US gold futues down 0.1% at $1,491.70/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans hover near 1-wk low as trade deal delay weighs
  • Soybean futures trading at $9.27-3/4 per bushel (0017GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.79 a bushel
  • Wheat futures little changed at $5.17-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Mauritius general election
  • Kenya’s Kibra constituency by-election
  • South Africa manufacturing production Sep-19 [fcst. 0.1% yy, prev. -1.8%]
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Oct-19 [fcst. 92.5, prev. 92.4]
  • South Africa FX reserves Oct-19 [prev. $54.9B]
  • Nigeria diaspora investment summit; 6-7 Nov
  • UNDP high-level dialogue in Accra
  • Africa oil week; 4-8 Nov
  • Week-long celebrations in South Africa; after Rugby World Cup win
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan to try to resolve dam dispute by Jan. 15 – Treasury
  • At least 37 killed in attack on Canadian miner Semafo convoy in Burkina Faso
  • Water crisis builds in Egypt as dam talks falter, temperatures rise
  • Trump says talks with Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan on dam dispute went well
  • ‘Wave of hope’ to end FGM in Ethiopia as activist pioneer dies
  • Ride-hailing market revs up in Egypt
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa cheers $24 bln more for investment drive
  • Algeria aims to cut imports, balance of payment deficit in 2020
  • Hacked Moroccan lawyer urges action against cyber spies
  • Ghana to change laws on licences to spur oil production
  • Militia in Congo kills 10 civilians in village raid
  • Heavy rains, flooding displace hundred of thousands in East Africa
  • Africa Oil – Cargoes clear, IOC tender result awaited
  • Rugby – ‘Beast’ Mtawarira retires after beauty of a World Cup win for South Africa
  • South African rand inches lower while stocks reach 2 mth highs
  • Kenyan lenders target small and medium businesses with digital loans
  • Total seeks to sell stake in major Nigerian offshore block
  • Angola bid round for 10 fields in Namibe, Benguela basins closes next week
  • Egypt to auction 1-yr euro t-bills on Nov. 11 – central bank
  • Equatorial Guinea to award 7-8 blocks in Nov, press for more drilling
  • Uganda aims for Q1 investment decision on oil pipeline – minister
  • Nearly half of Kenyans surveyed by police watchdog report abuses by officers
  • Zimbabwe police stop public workers from marching for better pay
  • Ivory Coast petroleum ministry announces tenders for 5 offshore blocks
  • Ghana to revoke 4 petroleum licences for lack of development – deputy minister
  • Uganda revamps century-old rail network after China delays funding
  • DR Congo hydrocarbons minister says change of power in country encouraging investment
  • Uganda energy minister invites bidding on 5 oil blocks
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa bets $13.5 bln of investment pledges at summit
  • Ghana deputy energy minister says laws must change for more offshore exploration
  • Mozambique to appeal South African ruling to set aside extradition of ex-finmin
  • Tullow CEO says too early for new investment date on Uganda oil project
  • Some Nigerians blame govt, not religious leaders, for shocking school abuses
  • Kenyan shilling stronger after parliament removes lending rate cap
  • Mozambique sees new oil and gas bidding round in 2020
  • Kenyan bank shares up after parliament passes rate cap appeal
  • Australia’s South32 exits South Africa thermal coal business

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 6 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks grind lower as markets await clues on trade talks
  • Asian equities swing between gains and losses
  • Treasury yields reverse course and fall in Asia
  • Traders looking for more progress in US-China trade row

Oil Markets

  • Oil slips on huge US crude build; hopes for US-China trade talks check losses
  • Brent down 0.4% at $62.73 a barrel (0120GMT)
  • WTI down 0.4% at $57.05

Precious metals

  • Gold firms as markets await clarity on trade talks
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,486.53/oz (0121GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.3% at $1,488/oz

Grains

  • Corn firms for first time in five sessions
  • Corn futures up 0.3% at $3.83 a bushel (0013GMT)
  • Soybean futures little changed at $9.34-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat futures up 0.3% at $5.16-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Ethiopia dam talks in Washington DC
  • Africa oil week; 4-8 Nov
  • Week-long celebrations in South Africa; after Rugby World Cup win
  • South Africa Investment Conference; 5-7 Nov

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Tunisian TV channel owner arrested on corruption allegations
  • Kenya vows to cut emissions as dirty stoves and fuels kill 21,500 a year
  • Zimbabwe public workers to press ahead with pay protest
  • African Oil – Angolan offers steady, fewer December cargoes remain
  • Tunisian inflation slows to 6.5 percent
  • South Africa’s rand flat as Moody’s relief wanes
  • Angola forms consortium with 5 oil firms for $2 bln LNG project
  • Nigerian police free 259 people from Islamic institution
  • Moody’s lowers South African Eskom’s rating deeper into junk
  • Kenya ditches cap on banks’ commercial lending rates
  • Total aiming for 2 additional LNG trains in Mozambique LNG
  • Kenyan president’s bid to remove lending rate cap passes parliament
  • Goldman’s sub-Saharan Africa CEO Coleman to leave firm
  • South Africa’s PetroSA eyes Russia for $359 mln farmout deal
  • Moody’s lowers South African Eskom’s junk rating on restructuring doubts
  • Total to drill another offshore well in South Africa early 2020
  • Senegal announces launch of oil and gas licensing round
  • Portfolio investors help support Kenyan shilling
  • South African consumer confidence hits lowest since 2017
  • Kenya private sector growth slows in Oct – Markit Stanbic Bank
  • South Africa’s private sector contracts again in Oct – PMI
  • South African fuel prices to drop in Nov
  • Rwanda appoints new foreign minister, internal security minister
  • Egypt non-oil private sector shrinks for third straight month in Oct – PMI
  • Trump speaks with Egypt’s Sisi, backs talks on disputed Ethiopia dam

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters