macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 27 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares slip as new Hong Kong tensions rise
  • Hang Seng falls 0.6%, mainland China down 0.3%
  • Nikkei down 0.2%, ex-Japan Asian loses 0.3%
  • Investors fret over US-China tensions
  • Hopes of economic re-opening support sentiment

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls on demand concerns, US-China tensions
  • Brent down 0.7% at $35.77 (0009GMT)
  • WTI down 1.2% at $33.95

Precious metals

  • Gold hovers near 2-wk low on hopes of economic recovery
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,710.01/oz. (0301GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,703.20/oz.

Grains

  • Corn up for 3rd session as US planting lags expectations
  • Corn futures up 0.4% at $3.20-1/4 a bushel (0040GMT)
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.46-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.1% at $5.06-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%]
  • South Africa publishes level 3 lockdown regulations
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Suspected militia kills at least 17 in northeastern Congo
  • South Africa to let places of worship reopen from June
  • From Brazil to Kenya, coronavirus widows lose their husbands and then their land
  • WHO expects hydroxychloroquine safety findings by mid-June
  • Algeria raises 2020 budget deficit forecast to 10.4% of GDP
  • Hope ‘shattered’ for Kenya forest people three years after landmark ruling
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria’s July loading programmes show output rise
  • South Africa restaurant group Famous Brands expects revenue upturn in June
  • South Africa rand hits 8-wk high vs dollar
  • South Africa Airways aims to resume domestic flights in mid-June
  • Coronavirus to cut South Africa 2020 mining output by 8-10% – industry body
  • Nigeria Bongo oil export terminal shut for maintenance
  • South Africa Absa warns H1 profit likely to drop more than 20%
  • US military says Russia has deployed more fighter jets to Libya
  • New hotline helps families survive abuse in Congo
  • Uganda shilling little changed, may firm on charity and coffee inflows
  • Kenya shilling steady amid slight pick up in dollar demand

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 26 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Japan shares hit 10-wk peak, S&P 500 tests 3,000
  • Nikkei rises 2% to highest since early March
  • S&P 500 futures climb 1.4% to test 3,000 barrier
  • China central bank says to strenghten economic policy
  • Oil up as supply falls, US rigs hit all-time low

Oil Markets

  • Oil climbs as suppliers stick to output cuts, coronavirus lockdowns ease
  • Brent up 0.7% at $35.76 a barrel (0057GMT)
  • WTI up 2.3% at $34.00

Precious metals

  • Gold ticks up on Sino-US tensions over Hong Kong
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,732.38/oz. (0241GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,733.50/oz.

Grains

  • Weak dollar lifts soybeans out of losing streak
  • Soybean futures up 0.5% at $8.37-3/4 a bushel (0115GMT)
  • Corn unchanged at $3.18 a bushel
  • Wheat unchanged at $5.08-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria releases Q1 capital importation stats
  • South Africa briefings on 1 June covid level 3 alert move expected
  • Muslim Eid celebrations; some markets on holiday
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Ivory Coast rejects report showing rising child labour in cocoa sector
  • Morocco to try opposition editor accused of sexual assault
  • WHO fears “silent” virus epidemic unless Africa prioritises testing
  • South Africa Truworths warns on profit, UK footwear options open
  • Burundi ruling party wins presidential election
  • Libya stops nearly 400 migrants attempting to cross to Europe – IOM
  • South Africa Airways administrators can appeal layoff ruling – court
  • South Africa – AngloGold Ashanti reports more covid-19 positive cases at Mponeng mine
  • Hit by coronavirus, Kenyans turn to car boot commerce
  • South Africa Truworths considering all options for UK shoe chain office
  • Mozambique records its first death from covid-19 – health ministry
  • Ivory Coast children head back to school after virus shutdown
  • South Africa Tiger Brands eyes ‘significant’ job cuts on coronavirus
  • Barrick pays Tanzania initial $100 mln after gold shipments resume
  • Barrick’s Tanzania gold concentrate containers clear for export
  • South Africa public sector wage dispute moves to arbitration
  • Nigeria economy expands 1.87% y/y in Q1 – stats office
  • South Africa Tiger Brands reports lower H1 earnings, defers dividend

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 25 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares reverse early gains, eyes on China-US trade relations
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan down 0.1%
  • Hang Seng down 1.4%
  • South Korea, Australia & NZ shares up

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls as US-China tensions take toll
  • Brent down 0.5% at $34.94 a barrel (0152GMT)
  • WTI down 0.2% at $33.19

Precious metals

  • Gold down as potential Japanese stimulus boosts risk appetite
  • Spot gold down 0.4% at $1,728.06/oz. (0252GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.4% at $1,728.50/oz.

Grains (22 May)

  • US wheat, soybean futures fall with export prospects; corn edges up
  • Soybeans slump on US-China tensions
  • Wheat slips back after three successive daily gains
  • Soybeans ends down 1-3/4 cents at $8.33-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat down 7-1/4 cents at $5.08-3/4 a bushel
  • Corn slightly up ¼ cent at $3.18 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Africa Day; activities across continent
  • Nigeria GDP Q1-2020 [fcst. 1.0% yy, prev. 2.6%]
  • South Africa govt briefings on planned 1 June covid level 3 alert move
  • Muslim Eid celebrations; some markets on holiday
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Ivory Coast army joins Burkina Faso in anti-insurgent operation
  • Workers at China Moly’s Congo mine end 1-day strike over covid-19
  • South Africa president says lockdown to ease from June 1
  • AngloGold Ashanti shuts South Africa mine after finding 164 coronavirus cases
  • Libya Haftar seeks to rouse forces against Turkey
  • Zambia information minister tests positive for coronavirus
  • Trump urges Libya de-escalation on call with Erdogan – White House
  • eSwatini cuts rates further in response to virus
  • South Africa, Mozambique discuss aid to fight insurgency
  • Africa’s Muslims celebrate Eid in the shadow of covid-19
  • Namibia culls ten ‘dangerous’ elephants to protect farmers, crops
  • Egypt forces kill 21 militants in North Sinai – state TV
  • Burundi police detain more than 200 opposition election observers
  • UK court throws out Nigeria oil corruption case against Shell, Eni
  • South America is a new covid ‘epicentre’, Africa deaths still low – WHO
  • Anglo American explores sale of South Africa coal alongside spin-off – sources
  • Africa Oil – India’s IOC takes four cargoes
  • South Africa rand retreats as US-China tensions dim risk appetite
  • Libya Tripoli govt retakes more areas of capital
  • Africa music legend Mory Kante dies aged 70 in Guinea
  • World Bank sees Nigeria $1.5 bln loan decision in late July – Bank official
  • UN prosecutor: remains of Rwanda war crimes suspect found in Congo
  • Angola oil exploration evaporates as covid-19 overshadows historic reforms
  • UK’s Blair: Patchy data means Africa could use antibody tests to track covid-19
  • South Africa scientists say up to 50,000 covid-19 deaths possible
  • Uganda shilling unchanged as banks’ appetite flat
  • Egypt strategic rice reserves sufficient until October – supply ministry
  • South Africa’s Sasol full-year earnings drop of at least 20%
  • South Africa’s Nedbank warns on profit amid covid-19 crisis

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Weekly | 25 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
25 May Nigeria GDP, % yy Q1 2020 1.0 2.6
28 May Nigeria Interest Rate, % 13.0 13.5
29 May South Africa PSCE, % yy Apr 2020 8.1 7.8
29 May South Africa M3, % yy Apr 2020 8.9 9.5
29 May Zambia CPI, % yy (mm) May 2020 17.3 (2.2) 15.7 (2.2)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 0.9 (0.2) 0.9 (0.0)
South Africa PPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 3.6 (0.3) 4.5 (0.3)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 4.1 (0.6) 4.1 (0.3)

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 22 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Hong Kong leads Asia shares lower as Beijing readies new security law
  • Hang Seng falls over 3% as Beijing plans new security law
  • Hong Kong latest flashpoint in deteriorating US-China ties
  • China pledges more stimulus, does not set 2020 growth target
  • Major currencies unmoved

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices, gasoline demand climb as countries ease coronavirus curbs
  • Brent up 0.4% at $36.20 a barrel (0040GMT)
  • WTI up 0.2% at $33.97

Precious metals

  • Gold faces weekly decline on signs of growth picking up
  • Spot gold at $1,727.39/oz. (0248GMT); down 1.4% yesterday
  • US gold futures up 0.3% at $1,726.50/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat inches down, but set for 3% weekly gain on supply concerns
  • Wheat futures down 0.2% at $5.15 a bushel (0118GMT)
  • Wheat up nearly 3% for the week
  • Soybeans down 0.5% for the week
  • Corn down nearly 0.5% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Kenya senate votes to impeach deputy speaker Kindiki
  • Egypt starts marketing 3-tranche dollar bonds
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Nigeria’s economy to shrink 8.9% in worst case – finance minister
  • Threat to hit Turkey in Libya underscores risk of escalation
  • Ethiopia to sell 40 pct of Ethio Telecom – Minister
  • Seychelles considers admitting Israelis in initial tourism restart
  • US reaches consensus with Sudan on ‘contours’ of future claims deal
  • South Africa SPAR sees Polish business breaking even in 24 months
  • South Africa rand strengthens after cenbank cuts repo rate, stocks fall
  • South Africa central bank cuts lending rate by 50 bps
  • Hundreds killed in South Sudan tribal clashes – ICRC
  • Vodcacom South Africa now a standalone business
  • World Bank approves record $500 mln to battle locust swarms
  • IMF says over 20 poor countries seek debt relief, extension possible
  • Investec Bank CEO sees no sector-wide relief to come from South Africa banks
  • Nigeria inflation rose for eighth month at 12.34% in April on higher food prices
  • Kenya’s KCB bank sees a quarter of loans hit by coronavirus
  • Egyptians rush to buy treats before Eid al-Fitr curfew
  • Nigeria black market naira seen under pressure; in week ahead
  • South Africa Cell C to place some assets in SPV – regulator
  • Eskom CEO targets massive debt reduction for sustainable future
  • Ethiopia to issue two new telecom operator licenses – regulator
  • Nigeria central bank warns against using FX black market
  • Egypt gets over $12 bln in orders for three-tranche bonds, tightens guidance – document
  • Ethiopia to issue new telecom operator licenses – regulator
  • Nigeria – Lagos doctors to end strike after curfew harassment complaint remedied
  • South Africa’s Cell C to split some assets into new special purpose vehicle – regulator
  • South Africa scientists say up to 50,000 covid-19 deaths possible
  • Rwanda economic growth to slow in 2020 due to coroanvirus
  • South Africa Tsogo Sun Hotels sees core profit hit from travel restrictions
  • Uganda shilling steady helped by auction and commodity exports
  • Kenya shilling steady, helped by tight liquidity
  • Egypt starts marketing 3-tranche dollar bonds – document
  • Rwanda to increase spending 7.5% in 2020/21 – finmin
  • South Africa Eskom aims for 200 bln rand debt balance
  • Rwanda GDP growth to slow to 2% in 2020 from 9.4% last year – finmin
  • South Africa Investec reports 16.8% drop in annual profit
  • Losses at Polish business hit South Africa’s Spar half-year earnings
  • Uganda women fear food shortages will make coronavirus and HIV a deadly mix

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 21 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares temper rally, await China policy meeting
  • Investors question speed of stock rally
  • China shares eye chance of stimulus
  • Oil prices extend gains in Asia

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices climb as US stock drawdown eases supply glut fears
  • US crude stocks fall by 5 mln bbls last week – EIA
  • OPEC chief says market responding well to record supply cut
  • Brent up 0.5% at $35.92 a barrel (0024GMT)
  • WTI up 0.1% at $33.53

Precious metals

  • Gold slides as economic recovery hopes dent safe-haven bids
  • Spot gold down 0.6% at $1,738.97/oz. (0250GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.6% at $1,740.80/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat extends gains as worries about global crops persist
  • Wheat futures up 0.5% at $5.16-1/4 a bushel (0113GMT)
  • Soybeans unchanged at $8.46-3/4 a bushel
  • Corn up 0.1% at $3.19-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s SARB decides interest rates [fcst. 4.25%, prev. 4.25%]
  • Botswana ends 48-day lockdown
  • Kenya politics in focus ahead of Friday senate deputy speaker Kindiki impeachment vote
  • Guinea Bissau Embalo expected to form govt ahead of Friday deadline
  • Nigeria inflation Apr-20 [fcst. 12.5% yy, prev. 12.3%]
  • Kenya extends Nairobi’s Eastleigh lockdown amid protests & mass testing boycott threat
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Total secures $14.4 bln funding for Mozambique LNG – sources
  • South Africa records first neonatal coronavirus death, toll jumps to 339
  • Libya frontline pullback puts eastern offensive in question
  • Botswana to end 48-day lockdown at midnight
  • Algeria activists jailed for criticising authorities, rights group says
  • Burundi voting ends in calm despite fraud allegation
  • Namibia suspends maize and pearl millet imports to protect local farmers
  • Egypt to offr coronavirus testing in all general hospitals
  • Poor countries need more debt relief during pandemic, Germany’s Merkel says
  • Trump, Macron agree on urgent need for de-escalation in Libya – White House
  • Africa Oil – Differentials rise broadly but demand still uncertain
  • Rwanda most-wanted genocide suspect appears before French court
  • Egypt to take 1% from salaries due to coronavirus
  • South Africa rand firms to 5-wk highs, stocks continue to move up
  • Nigeria doctors to strike over treatment by police during lockdown
  • Kenya lender KCB Group Q1 profit after tax misses expectations
  • Migrants and those without ID face hunger in South Africa
  • IIF: Frontier markets face rising funding gaps
  • South Africa retailer Edcon can be saved, administrators say
  • Congo chamber of mines head sees more M&A due to covid-19
  • Egypt GDP growth was 5% in Jan-March quarter – cabinet
  • Prosecutor seeks transfer of Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga to UN custody
  • South Africa central bank to cut rates again, resist QE pressure for now
  • South Africa mobile operator Cell C finalises recapitalisation plan
  • Zambia cuts lending rate by 225 bps to 9.25% as coronavirus hits economy
  • Egypt stocks dip on coronavirus restrictions, FAB boosts Abu Dhabi
  • Kenya new car sales plunge 47% in April due to coronavirus
  • Kenya floods uproot families, disrupt fishing, farming communities
  • South Africa Tiger Brands books $30 mln impairment on export businesses
  • South Africa Harmony Gold confirms two covid-19 cases at Kalgold
  • South Africa retail sales up 2% y/y in February
  • Outlook bright as solar energy keeps Nigeria homeworkers powered up
  • Every day’s a Sunday as Kenya power demand drops
  • World Bank approves $1 bln funding for Kenya budget support
  • Lesotho new PM Majoro sworn in but faces task of uniting fractious elite
  • Kenya shilling steady, tight liquidity helps
  • South Africa Land Bank in talks with lenders after debt default
  • South Africa Dis-Chem Pharmacies posts 12% jump in annual revenue
  • Angola oil exploration evaporates as covid-19 overshadows historic reforms
  • Burundi heads to poll amidst health and violence concerns

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 20 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks adrift as vaccine rally falters
  • Equity rally runs out of puff; MSCI AxJ -0.07%
  • AUD backs off multi-week high, gold and bonds up

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices ease on dim economic outlook despite signs of firmer demand
  • Brent down 0.3% at $34.54 a barrel (0031GMT)
  • WTI down 0.4% at $31.83

Precious metals

  • Gold gains as bleak economic outlook stokes safe-haven demand
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,747.19/oz. (0256GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.4% at $1,753.30/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat eases on improved weather, corn falls after 3 days of gains
  • Wheat futures down 0.2% at $4.98 a bushel (0026GMT)
  • Soybeans up 0.1% at $8.43-1/4 a bushel
  • Corn down 0.4% at $3.20 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Burundi holds presidential election
  • Zambia decides interest rates [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%]
  • Lesotho swears in new prime minister
  • South Africa retail sales Feb-20 [fcst. 0.7% yy, prev. 1.2%]
  • South Africa’s central bank MPC meets; 19-21 May [fcst. 4.25%, prev. 4.25%]
  • Nigeria inflation Apr-20 [fcst. 12.5% yy, prev. 12.3%]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Burundi heads to poll amidst health and violenc concerns
  • Eastern Libya forces say to move back from Tripoli fronts
  • Nigeria woos local firms to boost manufacturing as coronavirus disrupt imports
  • Egypt registers 720 new coronavirus cases in one day
  • South Africa to start phased school re-opening on June 1
  • Egypt says proposed standby funding from IMF aimed at helping businesses
  • South Africa defence firm Denel can’t pay May salaries
  • Ceasefire, diplomacy needed to end Libya crisis – UAE official
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria offers firm
  • UN envoy pushes for end to foreign fueling of Libya conflict
  • Wealthy countries failing Africa during pandemic, presidents say
  • South Africa rand firms on covid-19 vaccine hopes
  • Paris Club debt relief to pick up after G20 deal clarified – France
  • Southern Africa bloc backs Mozambique in fight against insurgents
  • South Africa publishes covid-19 mine safety rules
  • Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga brought before French court
  • Lebanon says it will honour Algeria Sonatrach contract amid probe
  • Lafarge Africa halts capex and warns of second-quarter sales drop
  • South Africa Denel says can’t pay staff salaries in May
  • Egypt to provide $6 bln in loan guarantees to aid businesses
  • DR Congo police crackdown on sect killed 55 in “bloodbath” – Human Rights Watch
  • Namibia lifts foot-and-mouth disease restrictions
  • ‘Reasonable prospects’ South Africa’s Comair can be saved – administrators
  • Successful OPEC+ output deal fits a pattern: Kemp
  • Egypt extends suspension of international flights until further notice
  • Lesotho PM, named as suspect in murder case, bows to pressure to quit
  • Uganda shilling flat as covid-19 lockdown cuts importer demand
  • South Africa manufacturing output down 2.1% y/y in February
  • Zimbabweans in South Africa use app to send food home after border restrictions
  • Rwanda genocide fugitive Kabuga due before French court
  • Sovereign wealth funds fly to relative safety of US assets amid pandemic
  • South Africa BCG booster trials seek low cost weapon against covid-19
  • Kenya shilling firms against dollar, tight liquidity helps
  • Eastern Libya forces pull out of parts of Tripoli
  • Kenya herb farmers crushed by virus blow to exports

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters