macroafricaintel Weekly | 16 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
16-20 Sep Kenya Interest Rate, % 8.0 9.0
18 Sep South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2019 4.5 (0.4) 4.0 (0.4)
20 Sep Ghana Interest Rate, % 15.0 16.0
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2019 11.0 (1.0) 11.1 (1.1)
Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2019 10.1 (0.6) 9.4 (0.8)

macroafricaintel | Climate change & conflict in West Africa (3)

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Related conflicts, including criminal violence such as banditry, kidnapping, and political assassinations, are most severe in Nigeria. Pastoralists in Nigeria have invaded farms, colonized villages along their grazing routes and meddled in the local politics of farmer communities with relative impunity. In response, some Nigerian state governments implemented grazing bans. A proposed organized settlement programme by the government for pastoralists in the greener south has been met with political resistance.

Nigerian authorities view the root of the crisis as the shrinking of Lake Chad. Food shortages and violence have already forced at least 2.4 million people to flee the Lake Chad area. In March 2017, the United Nations (UN) Security Council identified climate change (drought, crop failure, etc.) and ecological changes as factors responsible for Lake Chad’s instability. The UN plans to facilitate raising $50 billion to regenerate Lake Chad by transferring water from more abundant Central African lakes. One UN goal is to create more jobs in the area.

Lessons from the Arab Spring
Unprecedented mass protests across the Middle East between 2010 and 2012 dubbed the “Arab Spring” is an outlier. Neither is the case related to local farmer-pastoralist conflict, nor are local climate change effects believed to have been a contributing factor. Instead, drought-induced wheat production shortfalls in China led to a global wheat shortage, driving bread prices up to unbearable levels in Egypt, a major global wheat importer, and elsewhere across the Middle East and North Africa. Still, the authors argue that although global warming may not have directly triggered the Arab Spring, it may have generated conflict that fed its flames.

World wheat prices more than doubled in 2010 due to extreme climatic events in the breadbasket nations of Russia, Ukraine and Canada. Due to their low incomes and reliance on imported wheat, many countries in the North African and Middle Eastern regions fell prey to the resulting price increases. Governments that failed to meet their citizens’ needs for food security appeared less legitimate, leading to protests and ultimately to violence. Thus, institutional weakness (exacerbated by the use of new communication channels) may have enabled the wave of rebellions and revolutions across the region.

Managing farmer-herder conflicts: The case of Ghana
Farmers and nomadic Fulani pastoralists in Ghana clash violently every year; especially during the dry season from December to March. These conflicts have multiple causes, including scarcity of pasture and water resources due to climate change, cattle rustling and weak laws governing ranching. Ethnic differences are an added cultural factor: “farmers construct Fulani identity as non-Ghanaian.” There is a historical basis for this distinction: the Fulani originally migrated to Ghana from Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali early in the 20th century. They did so in search of pasture, water, land and better economic opportunities.

A recent rise in farmer-herder conflicts in Ghana follows increased cow purchases, as a signal of increased wealth from agricultural development. The combination results in less grazing land, yet more cows that need pasture. When we add increased migration of Fulani herders to Ghana from drought-hit Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, we see the seeds of conflict.

Whether in times of peace or conflict, farmers and herders in Ghana have a history of cooperating with one another as “cultural neighbours”. This pattern of cooperation takes the form of neighbourly interactions, intermarriages, friendships, trade, and resource sharing. However, recent increases in conflict among members of the two groups spurred the Ghanaian government to institute a ranching programme. This intervention led to a reduction in the number of violent conflicts among members of the two groups in the pilot area of the programme. This success suggests such interventions by the state might serve as a template for other West African countries grappling with similar issues.

Article was first published by the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Business School, Singapore. References are in the original article.

#Africa #Markets | 13 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares advance on US-China trade progress, ECB easing
  • Ex-Japan Asia MSCI up 0.3%, Nikkei gains 1.0%
  • S&P 500 near record peak hit in late July
  • Euro, bonds lose steam on profit-taking after ECB

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls as spectre of US-China trade war haunts market
  • Brent down 0.3% at $60.21 a barrel (0053GMT)
  • WTI down 0.3% at $54.95 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold treads water as trade optimism lifts risk assets
  • Spot gold flat at $1,497.81/oz. (0105GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,505.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans dip, but set for biggest weekly gain in 3 mths
  • Wheat futures unchanged at $4.83-3/4 per bushel (0017GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.1% at $3.67 per bushel
  • Soy futures down 0.1% at $8.94-1/4 per bushel
  • Rice futures down 0.2% at $12.16 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • ECOWAS summit; ministers meet today, presidents tomorrow
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria plans VAT increase in push to raise non-oil revenue
  • Tunisia’s exiled autocrat in hospital – lawyer
  • De Beers Namibia diamond venture sells mine to local consortium
  • 10 killed in stampede at Mozambique election rally
  • Thousands demand justice for slain protesters in Sudan
  • South Africa’s rand firms on ECB decision, trade hopes, stocks gain
  • Kenya bans foreigners from adopting local children
  • Africa Oil – Nigerian offers hold strong, Angolan weakening
  • Zimbabwe – Mugabe’s family says burial to be private, in snub to successor
  • Kenya targets officials’ overseas trips in “brutal” spending cuts
  • Tanzania leader sacks spy chief ahead of polls
  • Sudan PM visits South Sudan to back new peace roadmap with rebels
  • South Africa’s Mr Price suspends 2 senior managers
  • Up to 50 dead in Congo after train derails
  • OPEC members Iraq, Nigeria agree to cut oil output
  • Jailed Tunisia presidency frontrunner starts hunger strike
  • Rare black rhinos relocated to Tanzania in Serengeti repopulation plan
  • South Africa regulator fines Steinhoff for misleading markets
  • Kenya to cut budget deficit to 4.8% of GDP in 2020/21
  • Egypt’s Sisi selects new public prosecutor – sources
  • Tanzania court adjourns case of prominent jailed journalist for 4th time
  • Kenya’s finance minister pledges “brutal” spending cuts to rein in deficit
  • Algeria looks into allowing foreign ownership in some sectors
  • African telecoms firm Helios Towers revives London listing plans
  • Detained mogul’s presidential run tests Tunisia’s democracy

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Africa #Markets | 12 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks hit 6-wk high on trade war hopes ahead of ECB
  • US & China extend olive branches before trade talks
  • China stocks & yuan rise on renewed optimism
  • Focus on how far ECB will ease policy

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises as US, China swap concessions in trade war, inventories fall
  • Brent up 0.7% at $61.22 (0051GMT)
  • WTI up 0.7% at $56.16

Precious metals

  • Gold slips as thaw in Sino-US trade woes lift equities
  • Spot gold down 0.4% at $1,491.86/oz. (0117GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.3% at $1,499.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans gain; all eyes on USDA report
  • Wheat futures up 0.2% at $4.78-1/4 per bushel (0105GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.4% at $3.61-1/2 per bushel
  • Soy futures up 0.7% at $8.72-1/2 per bushel
  • Rice futures down 0.1% at $12.09 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa mining production Jul-19 [fcst. 4.2% yy, prev. -4.2%]
  • Gambia’s Barrow in Qatar
  • 5th Investing in Africa forum in Brazzaville; 10-12 Sep
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Germany aims to host Libya conference to stabilise oil producer
  • Nigeria tribunal rejects bid to overturn Buhari’s election
  • Mugabe’s body brought home but Zimbabweans unsure of his burial place
  • Mali jihadists say attack on passenger bus was targetting French troops
  • Africa Oil – Nigerian diffs robust on rare Asian demand
  • Sudan’s ruling council, rebel leaders agree on peace talks roadmap
  • Mozambique to continue debt restructuring talks despite ‘tuna bond’ court ruling
  • Egypt to start work on $2.4 bln telecom network for first phase of new capital city
  • South Africa’s rand falls on growth worries, Naspers slumps
  • Nigeria LNG says it moves closer to Train 7 investment decision
  • South Africa’s Aspen posts FY earnings decline, pays no dividend
  • Foreign investment in Egypt treasuries hits $20 bln at end of August – minister
  • South Sudan parties agree to form interim govt by Nov. 12
  • Zimbabwe sets up monetary policy committee to boost confidence
  • Britain agrees post-Brexit trade deal with southern Africa
  • Kenya lawmakers discuss court-ordered changes to rate cap law
  • Zambia central bank opposes bid to remove oversight of public debt
  • South Africa’s business confidence slumps to 2-decade low in third quarter
  • Ivory Coast, Ghana looking to regulate cocoa industry’s sustainability schemes – sources
  • ‘We just have to brave it’: Women face assault on Zimbabwe’s public buses
  • Uganda shilling expands gains amid depressed dollar appetite
  • Uganda leader calls for eye-for-an-eye sentences after nephew murdered

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Africa #Markets | 11 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Bond yields, stock prices supported ahead of central bank meetings
  • Value-oriented shares in US suddenly in favour
  • Investors unwind their positions ahead of central bank meets
  • Bond yields rise, US 10-yr yield up 10bps on Tue

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices after data shows big drop in US inventories
  • Brent up 0.7% at $62.81 a barrel (0053GMT)
  • WTI up 0.8% at $57.87 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices inch up amid cautious; investors eye ECB meet
  • Spot gold up 0.4% at $1,491.60/oz. (0120GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,499.3/oz.

Grains

  • Corn prices hit 8-day high on lower US crop condition
  • Wheat futures down 0.4% at $4.80-1/4 per bushel (0055GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.3% at $3.62-1/2 per bushel
  • Soy futures unchanged at $8.72 per bushel
  • Rice futures unchanged at $12.02 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria presidential election petitions tribunal to rule on Abubakar vs Buhari
  • Gambia’s Barrow in Qatar
  • 5th Investing in Africa forum in Brazzaville; Rwanda’s Kagame et al. attending
  • 1st batch of Nigerian returnees from South Africa expected
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Aug-19 [prev. 92.0]
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Mugabe’s body leaves Singapore for burial in Zimbabwe
  • Cameroon leader says govt will organise talks to solve separatist crisis
  • Chad extends state of emergency in 3 provinces by 4 mths
  • South Africa’s Naspers takes Tencent stake out of Africa with Prosus listing
  • Ivory Coast, Ghana looking to regulate cocoa industry’s sustainability schemes
  • Hundreds of Nigerians to take free evacuation from South Africa
  • South Africa’s rand firms on improved risk appetite, stocks down
  • Kenya Airways cancels flights due to pilot shortage
  • Africa Oil – Angolan, Congolese crude still awaits buyers
  • Banned Nigerian Shi’ite group says police killed 12 in religious marches
  • All remains from Ethiopian Airlines crash site now identified – police
  • Libya’s displaced struggle for shelter as fighting drags on
  • Sudan’s prime minister to join peace talks in Juba with rebels
  • African refugees held in Libya to be evacuated to Rwanda – UN
  • Algeria PM to resign, paving way for vote after protracted protests
  • South Africa’s investment grade rating depends on pace of reform – Moody’s
  • 4 cholera cases confirmed in Sudan, 3 die of acute watery diarrhoea
  • Ivory Coast town sinking underwater as coastal erosion advances
  • “Will we eat democracy?” – Tunisians frustrated as elections approach
  • Egypt’s August inflation rate falls to 7.5%, lowest in years
  • South Africa’s manufacturing down 1.1% y/y in July
  • MTN Group says Zambia, Cote d’Ivoire CEOs stepping down
  • Sudan’s major floods present first challenge for its new leader
  • Lack of clarity on South Africa’s Eskom illustrates policy uncertainty – Moody’s
  • South Africa’s Mossel Bay GTL plant could be out of gas by 2020
  • South Africa’s investment grade rating depends on pace of reforms – Moody’s
  • South African platinum miners’ wage talks go to internal abitrators
  • Kenya shilling strengthens against the dollar
  • Moody’s cuts South Africa’s 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%
  • South Africa’s AMCU declares a dispute in wage talks with platinum firms
  • Action! Nigeria’s film industruy draws global entertainment brands

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Africa #Markets | 10 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks mostly weaker on steep Chinese factory price declines
  • Markets on edge before ECB meeting
  • German bund sell-off hits bonds in Asia
  • Investors await more stimulus for global economy

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises on hopes of extended OPEC production cuts
  • Brent up 0.7% at $63.01 a barrel (0104GMT)
  • WTI up 0.8% at $58.31 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold hits 4-wk low as stimulus hopes, trade optimism boost risk-on mode
  • Spot gold down 0.5% at $1,490.68/oz. (0152GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.9% at $1,497.4/oz.

Grains

  • Corn rebounds from 4-mth low on USDA crop condition report
  • Wheat futures up 0.2% at $4.75-1/4 per bushel (0040GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.6% at $3.56-1/2 per bushel
  • Soy futures up 0.1% at $8.58-3/4 per bushel
  • Rice futures down 0.3% at $11.92 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa manufacturing production Jul-19 [fcst. -3.0% yy, prev. -3.2%]
  • Kenya parliament resumes; 2019 finance bill top on agenda
  • Public hearing on Nigeria medium-term budget
  • Ivory Coast’s Ouattara in Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Mozambique gets green light for eurobond debt swap plan
  • Plans for Israel gas exports to Egypt on track – Egyptian minister
  • Morocco activists denounce arrest of journalist on abortion charges
  • Mozambique says creditors holding 99.5% of eurobond support debt swap plan
  • South Africa’s rand firms as Fed cut bets spur buying, stocks steady
  • Egypt plans up to $7 bln in international bonds in 2019-20
  • Malawi’s economy to grow 5% in 2019, 7% in 2020 – finmin
  • Africa Oil – Nigerian oil suffers along with European margins
  • China’s Xi to visit Brazil in November for BRICS summit
  • Somalia economic growth likely to inch up this year, World Bank says
  • Kenya’s Equity Bank in talks to buy controlling DRC bank stake
  • South Africa’s state defence firm Denel names new finance chief
  • Plane leaves Zimbabwe for Singapore to bring home Mugabe’s body
  • Zambia farm input supplier plans to invest $150 mln in farming
  • Uganda shilling holds steady as demand for dollars wanes
  • South Sudan’s Machar to meet president, discuss stalled peace deal
  • Businesses in Central African union rue tough forex crackdown

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Africa #Markets | 9 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks edge up as weak data lift stimulus hopes
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific index up 0.1%, Nikkei gains 0.4%
  • Stocks up amid US, China & eurozone stimulus hopes
  • Euro capped with ECB expected to cut rates later this week

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises as Saudi Arabia signals OPEC cuts to continue under new energy minister
  • Brent up 7 cents at $61.61 a barrel (0106GMT)
  • WTI up 20 cents at $56.72

Precious metals

  • Gold inches up on hopes of economic stimulus
  • Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,511.30/oz. (0117GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,518.5/oz.

Grains

  • Corn rebounds from 4-mth low; US harvest prospects cap gains
  • Wheat futures unchanged at $4.63-3/4 per bushel (0139GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.4% at $3.56-3/4 per bushel
  • Soy futures up 0.1% at $8.58-3/4 per bushel
  • Rice futures down 0.2% at $11.95 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa state capture inquiry resumes

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 29 killed in 2 attacks in Burkina Faso
  • Experts challenge WHO with “epic” goal to eradicate malaria by 2050
  • Zimbabwe – Mugabe’s family pushes back against govt burial plan
  • Sudan tribes sign peace deal after deadly clashes in Port Sudan
  • Mugabe’s funeral & burial planned for next weekend – Zimbabwe govt memo
  • Televised debates a new step in Tunisia’s young democracy
  • Egypt’s Fawry eyes UAE deal, Saudi & Kuwaiti markets
  • Armed robbery takes place at office at Libya state oil firm in Tripoli
  • Nigeria’s Buhari to visit South Africa after attacks
  • Zimbabweans mourn founder Mugabe but confused over burial
  • Zimbabwe – In Mugabe’s village, relatives say he was very bitter before death
  • Libya – 3 killed in renewed fighting in southern Tripoli – witness
  • Sudan’s Bashir kept key to room with millions of euros, court hears
  • AU lifts Sudan suspension after transitional govt appointed
  • Zimbabwe president declares Mugabe a national hero
  • Former inmate tours Ethiopia torture centre after it opens to the public
  • Prince Harry to visit Diana’s Angola landmine project
  • South Africa – Fired Old Mutual boss plans return to work as court rules against insurer
  • South Africa’s Denel to exit some businesses within months
  • Families press for memorial at Ethiopian Airlines crash site
  • South Africa court rules in favour of sacked Oid Mutual CEO – TV
  • Madagascar forest destruction wiping out humans’ tiniest relative
  • Zimbabwe Mugabe’s legacy: thousands killed in “rain that washes away the chaff”
  • MTN Nigeria shares hit 3-mth high after partial reopening
  • Zimbabwe Mugabe’s farm seizures: racial justice or castastrophic power grab?
  • Ethiopia should slowly liberalise its exchange rate – central bank governor
  • South Africa’s Sasol to release delayed results by Oct. 31
  • Attackers kill 2 aid workers in western Ethiopia
  • South Africa’s net foreign reserves rise to $44.226 bln in August
  • South Africa auto sector in line for $4 bln investment boost – industry body
  • Zimbabwe’s former president Robert Mugabe dies in Singapore

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters