macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets
• World stocks hit record high as techs lead relief rally
• MSCI ACWI hits record high; Apple leads tech shares
• Relief over US-iran tensions support sentiment
• Gold, safe-haven currencies, oil all weaker

Oil Markets
• Oil prices fall further as threat of Middle East war recedes
• Brent down 0.2% at $65.23 a barrel (0119GMT); down over 4% last 2 days
• WTI down 0.2% at $59.42

Precious metals
• Gold inches down as easing US-Iran tensions whet risk appetite
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,551.02/oz. (0045GMT)
• US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,551.40/oz.

Grains
• Soybeans edge higher as US-Iran anxiety ebbs, set for 0.5% weekly rise
• Soybean futures up 0.2% at $9.45 a bushel
• Corn futures down over 0.5% for the week
• Wheat futures up more than 1% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]
• Kenya’s Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) forum in Kisii county
• South Africa’s Eskom implements stage 1 loadshedding
• Kenya’s stranded opposition figure Miguna court case
• Egypt & Sudan to start 50MW joint electricity grid (12 Jan)
• South Africa’s ruling ANC 108th anniversary events in Northern Cape;
Jan. 8th statement by Ramaphosa on 11 Jan.

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
• East Libya forces to press campaign against Tripoli rivals despite
ceasefire call
• Sudan’s PM visits rebel stronghold in Kordofan on peace mission
• Morocco using laws to silence dissent – rights groups
• W.Africa Oil – Angolan cargoes dwindle as diffs stay steady
• Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan deadlocked over giant Nile dam, look to
Washington talks
• Italian foreign policy flounders amidst Libyan blunders
• Egyptair to resume flights to Baghdad on Saturday
• Power cuts, weak data hold back South African rand
• Egypt’s annual headline inflation rises to 7.1% in December
• Egypt’s core inflation accelerates to 2.4% in December – c.bank
• South African power cuts to drag on into Friday
• Extreme weather leaves Congo capital residents underwater
• South African military plane crash lands in Congo, no sign of major damage
• Sudan opens up gold market in bid to raise revenue
• Ethiopia passes gun control law to tackle surge in violence
• 20 wounded in northern Mali rocket attack on UN base
• South Africa’s manufacturing down 3.6% y/y in November
• Congo’s Jan-Nov copper output up 16%, cobalt production falls 18%
• South African business confidence index edges up in December
• Kenyan shilling holds steady against importer demand
• Kenya’s KCB Group injects 5 bln shillings into NBK after acquisition
• Militant attack in Nigerian town kills 20 soldiers, displaces 1,000 residents

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 9 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares erase losses as Mideast tensions ease
  • [Oil up after sharp fall on Wed.], stocks rise
  • Safety rush turns to relief rally as Mideast tension ebbs
  • Gold & yen give back gains

Oil Markets

  • Oil edges up after plunge, as market recovers poise
  • Brent up 0.8% at $65.99 a barrel (0109GMT); after tumbling 4.1% on Wed.
  • WTI up 1% at $60.22; after nearly 5% drop on Wed.

Precious metals

  • Gold inches up as investors still wary of US-Iran conflict risk
  • Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,560.36/oz. (0300GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,560.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans flat ahead of USDA report
  • Soybean futures steady at $9.47-3/4 a bushel (0201GMT)
  • Corn futures unchanged at $3.84-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures up 0.2% at $5.53-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Guinea on state visit
  • South Africa manufacturing production Nov-19 [fcst. -0.6% yy, prev. -0.8%]
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Dec-19 [prev. 92.7]
  • Kenya’s Nairobi county assembly special sitting on Sonko crisis; county executive meeting also called
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa in Northern Cape for ANC Pre-Jan. 8 mass mobilization drive

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Turkey, Russia seek Libya ceasefire on Jan. 12 as rivals clash
  • Militant attack in Nigerian town kills 20 soldiers, displaces 1,000 residents
  • Norway to take 600 Libya evacuees from Rwanda camp
  • Libya’s NOC Sanalla says production rates reached 1.174 mln bpd – NOC Facebook
  • Niger urged to work with traffickers to curb violence
  • US imposes sanctions on South Sudan vice president
  • Sudan seizes assets of Bashir’s former ruling party
  • South Africa’s Eskonm cuts power for 2nd night in a row
  • Africa Oil – More Angolan crude trades, but cargoes linger
  • EU pushes Libya’s PM Serraji for ceasefire, warns on Turkey deal
  • South African edges up after Iran-US fears abate
  • Libyan PM Serraj to meet Italy PM – Italian govt source
  • Algeria names panel to amend constitution as protests persist
  • Stowaway found dead at Paris airport after Ivory Coast flight – airline
  • Rival Libyan forces clash west of Sirte
  • EM stocks fall as Iran retaliates against US; South African rand firms
  • Kenyan shilling holds steady against dollar
  • Loud explosion heard in Somalia’s Mogadishu at a busy junction
  • South Africa’s net foreign reserves rise to $44.897 bln in December

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 8 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks tumble, gold & crude soar after Iran strike on US forces
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan falls 1%
  • Iran launches missile attacks on Iraqi bases housing US forces [Iran signals retaliatory measures largely symbolic; Trump reply suggest likely relatively muted reaction from US]
  • Crude futures, gold soar amid fears of further escalation
  • US treasury yields fall amid flight to safety

Oil Markets

  • Oil jumps as Iran rocket strike on US forces jolts markets
  • Brent touches 4-mth high before investor tensions ease
  • Brent jumps 2.3% (0207GMT); WTI up 2%
  • Iran strike stokes fears of wider conflict, supply disruption
  • ‘It’s getting really serious’ – analyst
  • Brent up 2.3% at $69.83 (0207GMT); earlier rose to $71.75
  • WTI up 2% at $63.95

Precious metals

  • Gold soars past $1,600/oz. after Iran attack on US forces
  • Spot gold up 1.9% at $1,603.21/oz. (0056GMT)
  • US gold futures up 2% at $1,605.80/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans fall on Middle East conflict fears
  • Soybean futures down 0.4% at $9.40-1/4 a bushel (0147GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.5% at $3.82-3/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.7% at $5.46-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Kenya’s Miguna finally expected in Nairobi; after much drama in Frankfurt
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa in Northern Cape for ANC Pre-Jan. 8 mass mobilization drive
  • South Africa foreign exchange reserves Dec-19 [prev. $54.893B]
  • South Africa ABSA manufacturing PMI Dec-19 [prev. 47.7]
  • Guinea-Bissau awaits court ruling on presidential election challenge

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Morocco to spend $12 bln to secure water supply over next 7 years
  • South Africa’s Desmond Tutu & Al Gore urge end to fossil fuels
  • Ethiopia GDP forecast to grow 10.8% in 2019/20 – c.bank
  • European powers condemn Turkish plans to send troops to Libya
  • 4 Kenyan school children killed in al Shabaab attack on telecom mast
  • South Africa’s struggling Eskom to cut power overnight
  • Africa Oil – Angolan selling but supply remains ample
  • South African rand firms as demand for riskier currencies returns
  • EU’s Borrell rejects Turkish plans to send military to Libya
  • Italy’s Di Maio says Europe must do more to help stabilise Libya
  • Kenyan retailer Nakumatt to close as creditors back liquidation
  • Russia’s VTB sues Mozambique over loan in $2 bln debt scandal
  • Egyptair suspends flights to Baghdad for 3 days – statement
  • Tripoli-aligned forces say they quit Libya’s Sirte to avoid bloodshed
  • Kenyan shilling weakens due to importer demand for dollars
  • EU, Italy, UK, France, Germany to discuss Libya in Brussels on Tuesday
  • Creditors of Kenyan retailer Nakumatt vote to unwind the chain – administrator
  • Muted importer demand for dollars supports Ugandan shilling
  • Chalco ships first cargo from Guinea bauxite project

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 7 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks bounce, oil slips as Iran anxiety ebbs
  • Nikkei rallies 1.3% as Mideast risks reconsidered
  • Oil retreats on doubts Iran would disrupt supplies
  • Safe havens pull back with yen and gold easing

Oil Markets

  • Oil dips as markets await Iran response to US killing of military commander
  • Iran more likely to focus on US military targets – Eurasia
  • Dec OPEC output falls by 50,000 bpd – survey
  • US crude stocks likely to drop 4th week in a row – poll
  • Brent down 44 cents at $68.47 a barrel (0200GMT)
  • WTI down 41 cents at $62.86

Precious metals

  • Gold slips from near 7-yr high as US-Iran tensions ease
  • Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,562.81/oz. (0107GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,566/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans gain for 2nd day on hopes of higher Chinese demand
  • Soybean futures up 0.2% at $9.46-1/4 a bushel (0138GMT)
  • Corn futures little changed at $3.85 a bushel
  • Wheat futures little changed at $5.50-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Ghana’s Constitution Day; public holiday
  • Kenya’s controversial lawyer Miguna expected back in Nairobi; after court orders govt to allow his entry
  • South Africa’s 2019 national senior certificate (“matric”) results to be announced

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Ivory Coast president plans constitutional revision before election
  • Russia’s VTB sues Mozambique state firm at centre of $2 bln debt scandal
  • 30 killed in northeast Nigeria bombl blast on crowded bridge
  • Kenya arrests 3 men for trying to breach British army camp
  • UN Libya envoy blames deadly military academy strike on Haftar ally
  • Libyan commander Haftar’s forces say they have taken Sirte
  • US bolsters Kenya base security after Americans killed in attack
  • UN special representative for Libya to other countries: ‘Keep out’
  • Somalian parliament approves new petroleum law – minister
  • Zimbabe vice president’s wife freed on bail after attempted murder charge
  • Africa Oil – Angolan cargoes linger as demand remains slack
  • South Africa’s rand edges up after slump on Iran-US tensions
  • Tanzania’s gold export earnings up 42% in year to November – central bank
  • Egypt shuts 2 Mediterranean ports because of bad weather
  • OPEC December oil output slips as Nigeria, Iraq comply more
  • Ugandan shilling weakens due to increased dollar demand from banks
  • Egypt sells $865 mln in 1-yr t-bills at average yield of 3.54%
  • Uganda police disperse Bobi Wine supporters with tear gas
  • South Africa power shake-up looms as ailing Eskom welcomes new CEO
  • Ghana’s 2019/20 cocoa arrivals reach 456,000 T by Dec. 19 – Cocobod
  • Ivory Coast 2019/20 cocoa arrivals 1,153,000 T by Jan. 5 – exporters’ estimates
  • Kenya plans to refinance or exchange commercial debt with cheaper options
  • Years of drought threaten South Africa’s wildlife industry
  • Zimbabwe’s CBZ bank issues bonds under scheme to raise funds for maize, soy farming
  • Ailing Eskom’s new CEO takes helm with power shake-up on agenda
  • Kenyan shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • Kenya police arrest 3 for trying to breach British army camp
  • Kenya private sector activity up slightly in December – PMI
  • South Africa’s Absa appoints former central bank deputy governor as CEO
  • South African private sector shrinks for 8th straight month in Dec – PMI
  • South Africa’s rand weakens as power cuts resume, Mideast tensions escalate
  • Contraction in Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity slows slightly – PMI

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 6 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Gold, oil jump in Asia as US & Iran trade threats
  • Nikkei skids as Japan returns from holiday
  • Oil supply jump on fears of supply disruptions; Brent > $70
  • Safe-haven yen, bonds & gold all in demand

Oil Markets

  • Oil extends gains on rising Mideast tensions
  • Brent up 2.4% at $70.27 a barrel (0222GMT)
  • WTI up 2.1% at $64.39

Precious metals

  • Gold jumps to near 7-yr high as Mideast tensions spur safe-haven appetite
  • Spot gold up 1.4% at $1,573.14/oz. (0124GMT)
  • US gold futures up 1.6% at $1,577.80/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans inch higher on bargain hunting; US export pace caps gains
  • Soybean futures up 0.1% at $9.42-1/4 a bushel (0222GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.87 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.2% at $5.53-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa’s ruling ANC pre-Jan.8 statement media briefing
  • Liberia anti-government protests
  • Nigeria Stanbic IBTC PMI Dec-19 [prev. 57.7]
  • South Africa Standard Bank PMI Dec-19 [prev. 48.6]
  • South Africa ABSA manufacturing PMI Dec-19 [prev. 47.7]
  • Ghana’s Constitution Day tomorrow; public holiday (7 Jan)

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • 3 Americans killed in militant attack on base in Kenya
  • Nigerian police on heightened alert after US killing of Iranian commander
  • Turkish military units moving to Libya, Erdogan says
  • South Africa’s Eskom to end power cuts late on Sunday
  • Angola & Congo tell dos Santos to cooperate with justice after asset freeze
  • Turkey, Libya may contract international firms to search for hydrocarbons in eastern Med
  • Egypt’s net foreign reserves rise to $45.42 bln in December – c.bank
  • At least 30 killed in Libya military academy attack
  • Saudi Arabia condemns Turkish escalation in Libya – statement
  • South Africa’s Eskom resumes power cuts after Medupi fault
  • 14 killed in bomb attack on bus convoy in Burkina Faso
  • Kenya says starts spraying of locusts seen as threat to food security
  • Egypt reopens 2 Mediterranean ports which were shut due to bad weather
  • Egypt arrests tax authority chief on charges of receiving bribes
  • Flights suspended in Libya’s capital as violence intensifies
  • Violence in Sudan’s West Darfur left 65 dead, peacekeepers say
  • Africa Oil – Scarce buyer interest as Angolan cargoes linger
  • Losing Guinea-Bissau presidential candidate contests results in court
  • Somali govt detains record number of journalists
  • Egypt appeals against escalation in Iraq following US strike – statement
  • Ugandan shilling weakens as banks exert demand
  • Flights suspended in Libya’s capital due to rocket fire – official
  • South Africa’s rand slips to 2-wk low as Middle East tensions sour risk demand

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Weekly | 6 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
9 Jan South Africa Manufacturing Production, % yy Nov 2019 -0.6 -0.8
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 2.0 (0.3) 1.7 (0.3)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 2.1 (0.1) 2.1 (0.1)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 3.7 (0.5) 3.8 (0.5)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 3.0 (0.2) 2.5 (0.1)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 12.2 (1.0) 11.9 (1.0)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 3.9 (0.2) 3.6 (0.1)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 20.3 (1.0) 20.8 (0.7)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Dec 2019 1.0 (0.3) 0.3 (0.3)

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 3 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks extend New Year cheer, Mideast air strikes drive oil higher
  • Oil surges after reports Iran officials killed in US air strike
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.4%
  • Brent up 1.9% at $67.48
  • Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,536.54/oz.
  • China easing, positive China, Korea data seen supporting

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices jump $1 after US air strike kills Iran, Iraq military personnel
  • Brent up 1.9% at $67.48 a barrel (0202GMT)
  • WTI up 1.7% at $62.21

Grains

  • Soybeans set for 5th week of gains on Chinese demand hopes
  • Wheat futures up 0.2% at $5.61-1/4 a bushel (0152GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.92 a bushel
  • Soy futures up 0.1% at $9.57 a bushel
  • Rice futures down 0.4% at $13.11 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Uganda parliament to vet new Museveni ministers
  • South Africa ABSA manufacturing PMI Dec-19 [prev. 47.7]

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Billionaire dos Santos’ suitability as shareholder in question after asset freeze – Bank of Portugal
  • Military plane crash in Sudan’s West Darfur leaves 18 dead
  • South African photographer kidnapped in Syria back home – source
  • Algeria appoints new govt amid worst political crisis in decades
  • Turkish parliament passes Libya deployment bill, but troops unlikely for now
  • Trump tells Erdogan foreign interference complicating Libya – White House
  • Prominent South Sudan economist, 30 others pardoned by President Kiir
  • Ethiopia relaxes curbs on political gatherings with new anti-terror law
  • Algeria releases protest detainees
  • Egypt holds domestic fuel prices steady
  • South Africa’s rand weaker as dollar recovers; stocks gain
  • Africa Oil – Asking prices reduced amid slow holiday sales
  • Turkey says Trump, Erdogan discussed Libya on phone call
  • Egypt condemns Turkey decision to allow troop deployment to Libya
  • Tunisian president says parliament to vote on government
  • South Africa’s MTN exits towers businesses in Ghana and Uganda
  • Armed assailants kill 3 in Kenya’s Lamu county
  • Kenyan shilling seen rising, Zambia’s kwacha under pressure
  • Turkey to back Libya deployment bill but troops unlikely for now
  • Nigerian teen in pink aims to ‘take the golf world by storm’
  • Zimbabwe’s parched Bulawayo rations to save dwindling water

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters