macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 4 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares slide as Trump raises spectre of longer trade war
  • Trump flags delaying trade talks until after 2020 election
  • Asian stocks follow Wall St lower, safe-havens rise
  • ASX, Nikkei fall 1%

Oil Markets

  • Oil gains ahead of OPEC+ meeting, boosted by fall in US stockpiles
  • Brent up 0.5% at $61.10 a barrel (0151GMT)
  • WTI up 0.5% at $56.37

Precious metals

  • Gold hovers near 1-mth peak as trade concerns linger
  • Spot gold little changed at $1,476.55/oz. (0143GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,483.10/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat extends slide, hits 9-day low on ample global supplies
  • Wheat futures down 0.3% at $5.23-1/2 a bushel (0135GMT)
  • Soybean futures up 0.2% at $8.72-3/4 a bushel
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.80-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria 2018/19 general household survey report release
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa on working visit to Guinea (4 Dec), Ghana (5 Dec) & Togo (6 Dec)
  • Bank of Namibia interest rate decision [fcst. 6.5%, prev. 6.5%]
  • Ghana parliament probes high data cost, telcos summoned
  • South Africa Standard Bank PMI Nov-19 [prev. 49.4]
  • Nigeria Stanbic IBTC PMI Nov-19 [prev. 56.9]
  • Nigeria’s legislature expected to pass 2020 budget
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • African Economic Conference by AfDB, ECA & UNDP in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt; 2-4 Dec

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Kenya forcing importers to use costly new Chinese railway, businessmen say
  • Rio Tinto halts operations at South African unit as violence rises
  • Africa Oil – Nigerian December crude almost sold out, diffs high
  • Egypt’s foreign reserves rise to $45.354 bln in November
  • Namibian state fishing firm suspends CEO in corruption scandal
  • Tunisia grapples with post-revolution economic slide
  • Tunisia PM designate expects govt next week – Reuters interview
  • 23 killed in ceramics factory fire in Sudan
  • Lawyer says establishing Zimbabwe’s Mugabe assets will take a long time
  • South African rand, stocks slide after GDP shrinks
  • South Africa’s Taste Holdings loses second CEO this year as focus shifts to luxury
  • UN sends troops to halt bout of ethnic violence in South Sudan
  • Union calls on South Africa govt to drop inspections on arms exports
  • UN to deliver food aid to 4.1 mln in Zimbabwe, fears ‘major crisis’
  • South African economy contracts 0.6% in third quarter
  • Yield rise in weekly South Africa govt bond auction
  • Egypt to issue first corporate sukuk within weeks – official
  • South Africa’s Q3 expenditure on GDP down 0.3%
  • World Bank says Tanzania’s GDP to grow faster in 2020
  • Zimbabwe’s Mugabe left behind $10 mln, some properties – state media
  • Kenyan shilling under pressure on elevated demand by importers
  • World Bank says Tanzania’s GDP forecast to grow 5.8% in 2020 from 5.6% in 2019
  • Australian minnow Far battles Woodside over West African oil spoils
  • Egypt’s non-oil private sector shrinks to slowest in over 2 years – PMI

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 3 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks drop as Trump’s Latin American tariffs revive trade angst
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan -0.45%, Nikkei down 1.1%
  • Australian shares on track for worst day in 2 mths
  • US tariffs on Brazil & Argentina ‘effective immediately’

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises for a second day as Saudi Arabia pushes supply cut
  • Brent up 0.3% at $61.11 a barrel (0218GMT)
  • WTI up 0.4% at $56.17

Precious metals

  • Gold inches up as Trump’s Latin American tariffs curb risk appetite
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,463.42/oz. (0134GMT)
  • US gold futures unchanged at $1,469.20/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans rebound from near 3-mth low, ample global supplies cap gains
  • Soybean futures up 0.3% at $8.73-1/2 a bushel (0149GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.81-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures up 0.5% at $5.38 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa GDP Q3-2019 [fcst. 1.2% qq saa, prev. 3.1%]
  • Nigeria’s legislature expected to pass 2020 budget
  • South Africa state capture inquiry resumes
  • African Economic Conference by AfDB, ECA & UNDP in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt; 2-4 Dec

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Australia’s Woodside Petroleum submits final plan for Senegal oil project
  • Canada’s Semafo says Boungou mine operations in Burkina Faso not expected to restart this year
  • Tunisia’s police & demonstrators clash in third night of protests
  • Govt in Libya’s capital condemns deadly air strikes
  • East Libyan forces blamed for deadly air strikes in Tripoli, south
  • Accused in Namibian fishing corruption scandal withdraw bail application
  • South African Airways lost over $700 mln in past 2 years – documents
  • After Libya arms embargo breaches, UN Security Council warns countries to stop
  • South African Airways lost over 5 bln rand in 2018/19 – presentation
  • Lebanese salesman acquitted in case over $2 bln Mozambique loans
  • South African regulator tells Vodacom, MTN to cut data prices
  • South Africa’s rand hits 5-wk peak as US manufacturing slip aids EM’s
  • Africa Oil – Asking prices for Angolan slip, demand still robust
  • France’s Macron pays respects to soldiers killed in Mali, says battle goes on
  • Ghana G&S cocoa arrivals reach 208,000 T by Nov. 14 – COCOBOD
  • Poor nations pay price as millions flee ‘climate chaos’, Oxfam says
  • Ethiopia to keep banking sector only for domestic investors – draft law
  • Ivory Coast 2019/20 cocoa port arrivals seen at 694,000 T by Dec. 1 – exporters
  • Uganda reaches deal on tax dispute, paves way for Tullow stake sale
  • Morocco’s poor left behind by development boom
  • Uganda shilling holds steady, seen coming under pressure
  • Kenya shilling weakens on surging importer demand
  • South Africa’s Absa PMI slips to 47.7 in November
  • South Africa’s rand flat ahead of GDP figures

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 2 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks tick up on upbeat China factory reports, trade talk hopes
  • Investors cling to hopes of eventual compromise
  • China private manufacturing PMI surprisingly strong
  • Yen softens on stimulus, pound slips on opinion polls

Oil Markets

  • Oil jumps on Chinese factory growth, hopes for deeper OPEC cuts
  • Brent up 1.2% at $61.23 a barrel (0157GMT)
  • WTI up 1.6% at $56.03

Precious metals

  • Gold dips on upbeat dollar, positive China data
  • Spot gold down 0.3% at $1,461.15/oz. (0059GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.4% at $1,467.30/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans rise for first time in 8 sessions
  • Soybean futures up 0.5% at $8.81 a bushel (0221GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.2% at $3.82 a bushel
  • Wheat futures little changed at $5.41-1/2 per bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • African Economic Conference by AfDB, ECA & UNDP in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt; 2-4 Dec
  • South Africa ABSA manufacturing PMI Nov-19 [prev. 48.1]
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Nov-19 [prev. 91.7]

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • At least 24 killed in Tunisia bus crash
  • Cameroon seperatists fire on passenger jet in northwest
  • South African Airways in talks over funding for shake-up
  • Nigeria commits OPEC agreements before Vienna meeting
  • Comoros seeks $4.6 blnin investment to climb out of poverty
  • Incumbent Geingob wins Namibia presidential election with 56.3% of the vote
  • Tunisians protest in southern town after man sets himself alight
  • Ivorian president says he will stand in 2020 election if former leaders run again
  • Gabon president’s spokesman detained in anti-corruption crackdown
  • AfDB approves $210 mln loan for Nigeria’s power transmission project
  • Nigerian central bank injects $323 mln, 18 mln yuan into currency market
  • Nigeria’s Buhari seeks parliamentary nod on $23 bln in foreign loans
  • South African Airways shunned by insurers as financial doubts grow
  • Africa Oil – Sonangol nearly sells out spot cargoes, Nigerian sales East rise
  • South African rand firms but remains range-bound, stocks fall
  • Africa-focused lender Bayport explores $800 mln London listing – sources
  • Algerian protesters keep up pressure on authorities as vote nears
  • Fatal attacks on Congo clinics risks resurgence of ebola epidemic
  • Sudan’s ex-ruling party condemns law dissolving it, to continue “reforms”
  • Sudan’s former ruling party rejects law dissolving it
  • South Africa’s Hollard excludes SAA from insolvency coverage
  • South Africa’s Telkom says Cell C has rejected takeover offer
  • PwC probe finds certain executives at South Africa’s Tongaat overstated profits, assets
  • Fired Zimbabwe state doctors reject offer to return to work
  • Nigeria gives UK court $200 mln guarantee for stay on asset seizures in P&ID case
  • Kenyan shilling under pressure from end month importer demand
  • Government should nationalise Kenya Airways quickly – CEO
  • South Africa court rejects Zuma appeal to prevent corruption trial
  • Kenya’s annual inflation rises to 5.56% in November
  • Kenya Power, KenGen delay annual results on auditor-general appointment
  • South Africa’s Karoo drills and prays as taps run dry
  • Flight Centre, travel insurer drop South African Airways
  • Kenya’s Safaricom starts digital post services in e-commerce push
  • Kenya’s parliament approves an extra 78 bln shillings in spending
  • French army helicopters crashed in Mali were not under IS fire – general
  • Kenya Power annual results delayed on auditor-general appointment
  • South Africa’s Telkom says Cell C has rejected takeover offer
  • South Africa’s credit demand growth quickens to 7.28% y/y in Oct
  • Sudan moves to dissolve ex ruling party, repeals public order law

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Weekly | 2 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
3 Dec South Africa GDP, % qq saa Q3 2019 1.2 3.1
5 Dec South Africa Current Account Balance, % GDP Q3 2019 -3.9 -4.0
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 1.5 (0.1) 1.2 (0.0)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 2.1 (0.1) 2.4 (0.1)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 3.4 (0.1) 3.5 (-0.1)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 2.5 (0.2) 3.0 (0.2)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 11.9 (1.1) 11.6 (1.1)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 3.6 (0.1) 3.7 (0.0)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 20.0 (0.1) 18.6 (-0.2)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2019 0.1 (0.1) 0.4 (-0.5)

macroafricaintel | Africa FX Monthly – Dec 2019

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Currency   1 month

(31 Dec 2019)

3 month

(28 Feb 2020)

6 month

(29 May 2020)

12 month

(30 Nov 2020)

South African Rand (USD:ZAR) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1
Nigerian Naira (USD:NGN) 361.5 361.3 361.7 363.0
Ghanaian Cedi (USD:GHS) 5.3 5.5 5.1 4.9
Kenyan Shilling (USD:KES) 102.5 102.3 102.7 102.9
Ugandan Shilling (USD:UGX) 3,701 3,709 3,703 3,707
Tanzanian Shilling (USD:TZS) 2,293 2,295 2,301 2,285
Ethiopian Birr (USD:ETB) 30.9 31.2 31.5 32.0
Mauritian Rupee (USD:MUR) 37.1 36.5 36.7 37.3
Namibian Dollar (USD:NAD) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1
Botswanan Pula (USD:BWP) 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.6
Zambian Kwacha (USD:ZMW) 14.5 14.7 14.3 15.0
US Dollar Index (DXY) 98.5 98.3 97.1 97.5

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 29 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks stop short of new peaks as Sino-US tensions weigh
  • MSCI all country equity index just shy of record peak
  • US stock futures dip, Asia bid slightly
  • Major currencies stuck, Chilean peso tumbles

Oil Markets

  • Oil steady amid muted Thanksgiving trade and ahead of OPEC+ meet
  • Brent down 5 cents at $63.82 a barrel (0103GMT)
  • WTI up 1 cent at $58.12

Precious metals

  • Gold eyes worst month in 3 years amid trade deal hopes
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,456.30/oz. (0116GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.1% at $1,462.30/oz.

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 5th Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Malabo; Nigeria’s Buhari attending
  • e-Nigeria conference, exhibitions & Awards in Abuja; 28-29 Nov
  • Togo’s US embassy begins diaspora voter registration
  • South Africa PSCE Oct-19 [fcst. 6.8% yy, prev. 6.2%]
  • South Africa M3 Oct-19 [fcst. 6.9%, prev. 6.1%]

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Sudan moves to dissolve ex ruling party, repeals public order law
  • Sudan repeals public order act used to regulate women’s behaviour – minister
  • Sudan approves law to ‘dismantle’ former regime – state TV
  • After Mali deaths, Macron assesses Sahel options hoping for EU help
  • Sudan’s midwives told to stop genital mutilation on mothers after birth
  • 4 killed in attacks against ebola response centres in Congo
  • Norwegian police probe bank DNB over Namibia fisheries scandal
  • Guess the rain: Kenya gamifies climate change to help farmers
  • South Africa’s Eskom makes interim profit on higher tariffs
  • Africa Oil – Demand for Nigerian oil high, though loading issues continue
  • Cambridge college to return looted Benin cockerel statue to Nigeria
  • Equatorial Guinea announces $1 bln of energy projects
  • Turkey signs maritime boundaries deal with Libya amid exploration row
  • Nigeria gives UK court $200 mln guarantee for stay on asset seizures in P&ID case
  • South Africa’s rand steady, stocks fall as investor eye trade developments
  • Death-defying South African lauded for defence of land and women
  • Uganda allows study of power project in Murchison Falls national park
  • Growth in loans, credit cards poses risk to South Africa’s economy – central bank
  • Macron tells army: ‘all options open’ in Sahel after Mali deaths
  • African migrants among 20 civilians killed in attacks on Yemen within a week – UN
  • East Libyan warplanes attack Chadian forces near southwest oilfields – LNA official
  • Egypt’s parliament confirms reappointment of Amer as central bank governor
  • South Africa’s Eskom makes 1.3 bln rand profit in first half
  • Kenyan shilling weakens on end month dollar demand
  • Rwanda’s Bank of Kigali quarterly pretax profit up 58.9%
  • Zimbabwe president u-turns on scrapping grain subsidies – state media
  • Kenya’s Centum banks on real estate after H1 profit trebles
  • Turkey and Libya sign deal on maritime zones in the Mediterranean
  • Algeria protesters scuffle with police as election nears
  • 3 dead in attacks against ebola response centres in Congo
  • East Libyan forces launch air strikes near southwest oil fields
  • South Africa’s Vodacom CFO to step down
  • Kenya’s Centum’s H1 pretax profit jumps to 7.72 bln shillings

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 28 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares waver, Hong Kong tensions spoil festive mood after upbeat US data
  • Hong Kong law dents optimistic mood
  • Australian shares briefly touch record high, then retreat
  • Currencies in risk-off mode
  • US markets closed for holiday

Oil Markets

  • Oil drops as US inventory build, record output rekindles supply worries
  • Brent down 0.3% at $63.90 a barrel (0141GMT)
  • WTI down 0.4% at $57.90

Precious metals

  • Gold gains as US bill backing HK protesters fuels trade deal doubts
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,457.60/oz. (0132GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,456.30/oz.

Grains (27 Nov)

  • Soybeans steady as traders weigh chances for US-China trade deal
  • Hopes of US-China trade deal lend some support to soybeans
  • Corn, wheat slip in run-up to Thanksgiving closure
  • South American crop weather looks favourable – analysts
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $8.83-1/2 a bushel (1740GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.8% at $3.75-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.5% at $5.28-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa producer inflation Oct-19 [fcst. 2.9% yy, prev. 4.1%]
  • African continental peace summit in Niamey
  • Namibia general election results expected

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria meets with West African neighbours on border closure
  • Eastern Libyan forces regain control of El Feel oilfield – LNA
  • Nigeria meets with West African neighbours on border closure
  • 2 Guinea-Bissau ex-premiers through to presidential runoff
  • New sex offenders register may deter Nigerians with ‘no conscience’
  • Billion-dollar LNG project in southern Mozambique expected in 2020
  • South African govt working to ensure SAA’s survival
  • Africa Oil – More Nigerian progs emerge, new tender issued
  • Egypt sentences top militant suspect Ashmawy to death
  • South Africa’s rand firms on risk-on mood, stocks inch up
  • As France mourns 13 soldiers, top general says full victory in Africa impossible
  • French defence minister heads to Mali to honour troops killed in helicopter crash
  • Appeals judges uphold sentence for Congolese ex-vice president Bemba
  • Fastjet looks to sell Zimbabwe business in effort to survive till 2021
  • Kenyan govt says approves set price for household heating tariffs
  • Kenyan shilling weakens on increased importer demand
  • Namibians vote in tight contest clouded by economic crisis
  • South Africa business confidence improves after 2 years –survey
  • Former Guinea-Bissau PM’s through to run-off in presidential vote
  • In rain-short Niger, wasps deployed in war on crop-munching worm
  • Namibia arrests former justice minister in fishing scandal
  • Uganda shilling unchanged as banks and importers trim appetite
  • Egypt’s Rameda Pharmaceutical to float 49% stake on EGX
  • Botswana’s GDP to slow to 3.5% in 2019 – IMF
  • South Africa’s Woolworths posts 2.2% rise in 20-week sales
  • Shrinking lake in Mali spells end of line for family of fishermen
  • France to start probing black boxes from fatal Mali helicopter crash
  • Kenya parliament body cuts finance ministry’s request for extra spending

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters