#Africa #Markets | 16 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia shares subdued, May’s Brexit options eyed after crushing vote defeat
  • MSCI’s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index down slightly
  • Australian shares gain 0.1 pct, Nikkei off 0.7 pct
  • US stocks end up on gains in tech, internet companies
  • Wall St also helped by China stimulus hopes, dovish Fed comments

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices dip on signs of economic slowdown, but OPEC-led cuts provide support
  • Brent crude futures down 0.3 pct at $60.46 per barrel (0146GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures down 0.4 pct at $51.88 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices rise as failed Brexit vote drags on dollar
  • Spot gold up 0.1 pct at $1,290.56 per ounce (0050GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2 pct at $1,290.60 per ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans edge higher, rebound from 2-wk low
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.3 pct at $5.12-1/2 per bushel (0121GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.5 pct at $3.73-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 0.4 pct at $8.97 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures down 0.2 pct at $10.36 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa’s state capture inquiry resumes today
  • Nigeria inflation data for Dec-18 expected [fcst. 11.6% yy, prev. 11.3%]
  • South Africa retail sales data for Nov-18 due [fcst. 0.6% yy, prev. 2.2%]
  • Day 2 of South Africa’s central bank MPC meeting; decision tomorrow, likely unchanged at 6.75%
  • Kenyan security in focus after terrorist attacks

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Gunmen kill 15 in Kenya hotel compound attack claimed by Somali Islamists
  • US state department official confirms American killed in Kenya attack
  • British, American killed in militant attack in Kenya capital – mortuary
  • Ethiopia protesters end blockade of main highway to sea
  • East Libyan forces heading south to secure oil sites
  • Kenya minister: we have secured all buildings affected by militant attack
  • Tunisia govt, union fail to agree pay deal, strike likely
  • Back from medical leave, Gabon president appears in wheelchair
  • Pernod Ricard says Nairobi staff evacuated after hotel attack
  • Kenyan police: suicide bomber involved in Nairobi attack
  • Ivory Coast’s Gbagbo clear of war crimes, may return to politics
  • Vedanta tells top English court pollution case should be heard in Zambia
  • South African rand slips after dismal mining data
  • Runner-up in Congo poll dispute launches court appeal
  • ICC prosecutor says has right to appeal Gbagbo acquittal
  • Soldiers patrol Zimbabwe streets after protests kill three people
  • Africa Crude – Extra cargo added to Nigeria’s February programme
  • Germany’s SAP says all staff safe after Nairobi attack
  • Kenyan girl’s rescue shows community key to ending child marriage
  • eSwatini to ease ban on South African meat after foot and mouth outbreak
  • Kenya police chief: gunmen may still be at large in suspected “terror attack”
  • East Libyan forces heading south to secure oil sites
  • Three killed in Zimbabwe fuel price protests on Monday – police
  • Somali militants claim responsibility for attack in Kenya capital – spokesman
  • Protesters in Sudan want end to Bashir’s 30-yr rule
  • UK watchdog says has downgraded probe into Credit Suisse over Mozambique loans
  • Widespread looting in Zimbabwe’s second city – South Africa’s SABC
  • Zimbabwe to give public workers living allowance – minister
  • Ugandan shilling forecast to strengthen on coffee dollar inflows
  • Nigerian military clears Islamists from northeastern town
  • Southern African regional bloc calls emergency Congo election meeting
  • Helicopter fires teargas at protesters in Zimbabwe – Reuters witness
  • Uganda’s president “astonished” MTN charged less for telecom license renewal
  • South Africa’s November mining output down 5.6 pct y/y
  • Tanzania’s Bank M assets, liabilities transferred to Azania Bank
  • Sibanye-Stillwater has contingency plans for strike at platinum operations
  • Emerging market bond rally takes yields to lowest since May
  • Zimbabwe says it may need Russia to help modernise its army – RIA
  • Zimbabweans join stay-at-home protest after deadly clashes over price hikes
  • Top Senegalese chef backs ancient grain as next superfood

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 16 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
08:00 Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final 
10:15 UK BoE Gov Carney Speech 
10:30 UK PPI Input YoY 
10:30 UK PPI Input MoM 
10:30 UK Retail Price Index YoY 
10:30 UK Retail Price Index MoM 
10:30 UK Inflation Rate MoM 
10:30 UK Core Inflation Rate YoY 
10:30 UK Inflation Rate YoY 
10:30 UK Core Inflation Rate MoM 
12:00 Israel GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est 
12:00 Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision
NEWS
Japan Machinery Orders Unchanged in November 
Japan Producer Inflation Falls to 21-Month Low 
Panama Inflation Rate Falls to 0.2% YoY 
Jamaica Inflation Drops to 2-Year Low 
US Stocks Close Higher on Tuesday 
Pound Recovers After May Loses Brexit Vote in Landslide 
Argentina Inflation Slows to 2.6% MoM 
UK Stocks End Higher Ahead of Vote on Brexit Deal 
US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism at 13-Month Low 
Belgium Trade Surplus Narrows Markedly in November 
Dominican Republic Inflation Rate at Over 2-Year Low 
Peru Economic Activity Grows 5.27% YoY in November

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

#Africa #Markets | 15 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • China shares prop-up Asia on stimulus hopes, sterling braces for Brexit plan
  • Asian shares recoup earlier losses as cyclicals gain
  • China policymakers signal supportive measures
  • Pound off 2-mth high ahead of UK parliament vote
  • Sterling implied volatilities lower compared to 2016 referendum

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises 1 pct on supply cuts, but economic slowdown weighs on outlook
  • Price climb comes after bigger fall the previous day
  • HSBC cuts its 2019 Brent forecast by $16 to $64/bbl
  • Brent crude futures up 1.1 pct at $59.64 per barrel (0257GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures up 1.2 pct at $51.09 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold steady as dollar gains on fears of economic slowdown
  • Spot gold flat at $1,291.24 per ounce (0114GMT)
  • US gold futures little changed at $1,291.3 per ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans rebound from near 2-wk low
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.4 pct at $5.16-1/4 per bushel (0116GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.5 pct at $3.80-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 0.3 pct at $9.06-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures unchanged at $10.59 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa’s Zondo state capture inquiry resumes today
  • South Africa mining production data for Nov-18 due [fcst. 0.1% yy, prev. 0.5%]
  • South Africa retail sales data for Nov-18 expected [fcst. 0.6% yy, prev. 2.2%]
  • South Africa central bank MPC 3-day MPC meeting starts; decision on 17 Jan

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Islamic State insurgents overrun northeast Nigerian town – security sources
  • Libya halves budget deficit thanks to rise in oil revenues
  • Fuel price protests in Zimbabwe turn deadly
  • Gabon’s president returns home after extended medical leave
  • Congo under mounting foreign pressure for vote recount
  • Israel will begin exporting gas to Egypt in a few months’ time – energy minister
  • Russia’s Alrosa returns to diamond exploration in Zimbabwe
  • Goldman models risk of 1000bps Eskom blowout for South Africa
  • Ethiopia protesters block main highway to the sea
  • Indonesian jets force Ethiopian cargo plane to land over airspace breach
  • Africa Crude – Spot dwindles as new programmes due to emerge
  • Northwestern Congo ethnic violence killed at least 400 in December – local activists
  • Ethiopia charges METEC head with additional corruption case
  • Former Ivorian leader seeks acquittal on war crime charges
  • Public mistrust after Congo election raises ebola epidemic anxiety
  • Russian diamond Alrosa opens Zimbabwe subsidiary
  • Airline Fastjet cancels flights to Zimbabwe due to unrest
  • Libya should hold elections even if draft constitution rejected – parliament chief
  • Senegal blocks popular opposition candidates from presidential race
  • South Africa’s AMCU union to expand Sibanye-Stillwater strike to platinum operations
  • Algeria eyes Exxon deal, trading JV in first half
  • Tanzania court rejects plea to halt draft law curbing opposition
  • Egypt reopens four ports shut by bad weather
  • Sudan’s Bashir says protests will not lead to change in govt
  • Angola’s net reserves fall to $11.121 bln in December
  • Nigeria’s top judge asset declaration trial postponed to Jan. 22
  • Egypt picks banks to manage sale of stakes in state-owned companies – official
  • Zimbabwe deploys police in Harare to control fuel price protests
  • Ugandan shilling steady as tax payments crimp dollar demand
  • Another African bloc wants Congo election recount
  • Zimbabwean protesters burn tyres, block roads over fuel price hike
  • India’s Bharti Airtel in talks to buy Telkom Kenya – sources
  • Egypt yet to set details of Asian market bond issue – finance ministry
  • Kenya shilling gains against the dollar
  • South African rand falls on subdued risk appetite

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 15 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
06:30 Netherlands Balance of Trade 
08:00 Turkey Unemployment Rate 
09:00 Spain Inflation Rate YoY Final 
10:00 Germany Government Budget 
10:00 Germany Full Year GDP Growth 
11:00 Euro Area Balance of Trade 
12:00 Brazil Retail Sales MoM 
12:00 Brazil Retail Sales YoY 
12:00 Ireland Inflation Rate YoY 
13:00 Israel Inflation Rate MoM 
13:45 India Balance of Trade 
14:30 US PPI MoM
NEWS
Indonesia Import Growth Slows Sharply 
Indonesia December Exports Fall for 2nd Month 
Malaysia Jobless Rate Unchanged at 3.3% in November 
Brunei Trade Surplus Largest in 3 Months 
New Zealand Food Inflation Jumps to 5-Month High 
Brazil Shares Trade Above 94,000 Points for the 1st Time 
Zimbabwe Hikes Fuel Prices by 150% 
European Stocks Close Lower on Monday 
Romanian Stocks Slump on Tax Worry 
Mexico Private Investment Rebounds in October 
Ecuador Trade Gap Widens in November 
Poland Current Account Balance Swings to Deficit

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

#Africa #Markets | 14 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares falter from 1-1/2-mth highs, markets wary about China data
  • MSCI ex-Japan skids 0.7 pct, Tokyo on public holiday
  • Chinese shares in red, E-Minis stumbles too
  • Investors expect volatility to increase this week

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices edge up on OPEC-led supply cuts, lower US drilling activity
  • Brent crude futures up 0.5 pct at $60.75 per barrel (0040GMT)
  • US WTI futures up 0.4 pct at $51.81 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices edge higher on expectations of Fed pause
  • Spot gold up 0.2 pct at $1,289.50 per ounce (0040GMT)
  • US gold futures steady at $1,289.90 per ounce

Grains

  • Wheat extends gains into second straight session
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.1 pct at $5.20-1/4 per bushel (0136GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.1 pct at $3.78-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures down 0.1 pct at $9.09-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures down 0.2 pct at $10.75 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria’s chief justice to be arraigned for incomplete assets declaration today [Largely considered ill-timed & political since it is coming about a month to crucial polls; a negative]

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Morocco’s Amazigh want their new year to become official holiday
  • Congo should recount presidential election vote – Southern African bloc
  • Security forces clash with demonstrators in three Sudanese cities
  • Egypt shuts six ports due to bad weather
  • 150 pct price rise fails to fill Zimbabwe’s fuel pumps
  • Egypt settles $39 mln dispute with Mercedes-Benz importer – ministry
  • Egypt plans $2 billion worth of Samurai bonds – govt sources
  • Egypt to issue foreign bonds worth $3 bln – $7 bln – finmin
  • Southern African bloc calls for recount of Congo’s contested election
  • Congo should consider unity govt – Southern African bloc
  • US medic declared ebola-free, leaves Nebraska quarantine
  • Zimbabwe plans new currency as dollar shortage bites – finmin
  • Nigeria’s top judge to face trial on asset declaration charges
  • Sudan protests death toll rises to 24 – fact-finding committee
  • South Africa’s ANC says central bank should broaden economic focus
  • Congo ruling coalition wins legislative majority, constraining president-elect
  • South Africa’s ANC does not want to tweak central bank mandate – top official
  • South Africa’s ANC says job creation, growth should influence monetary policy
  • Congo forces surround presidential runner-up’s residence
  • UAE energy minister says average oil price in 2018 was $70 a barrel
  • Gabon’s Bongo names new prime minister after thwarted coup attempt
  • Zimbabwe plans new currency as dollar shortage bites – finmin
  • Africa currency bloc members aim to issue $4.82 bln in debt in 2019
  • Explosion sparks fire at Aden refinery, cause unknown
  • EU wheat rebounds from 1-wk low as export hopes lift Chicago
  • Congo election runner-up to press fraud dispute in court
  • Burkina Faso extends state of emergency in north by 6 months after attack
  • Security forces fire tear gas as more protests hit Sudanese cities
  • Africa Crude – Sonangol sells Dalia, Nigerian supported
  • Fund battling AIDS, TB and malaria seeks $14 bln to invigorate fight
  • Losing Congo presidential candidate’s campaign says he won in landslide
  • India’s Bharti Airtel to give Tanzania bigger stake in local telecoms firm
  • Ivory Coast cocoa bean quality hit by dry weather, financing woes
  • SADC bloc calls for calm in DRC amid election outcome dispute
  • Stakeholder denies that Togo’s Ecobank faces Nigerian investigation
  • Airtel Tanzania gives up part of its stake to govt – president’s office
  • Ugandan shilling strengthens, drawing support from pending taxes
  • South Africa’s Sibanye-Stillwater extends debt covenants
  • Uganda aims to impose penalties on distributor for power outages
  • South African assets firm on Fed chief’s “patient” comments
  • Kenya 2019/20 budget deficit forecast to fall, overall spending to rise – finmin
  • South Africa’s SA Express airline hopes to break even by FY-end – spokesman

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 14 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

(GMT+1)

CALENDAR
07:30 India WPI Manufacturing YoY
07:30 India WPI Food YoY
07:30 India WPI Fuel YoY 
07:30 India WPI Inflation YoY
08:00 Germany Wholesale Prices MoM 
08:00 Germany Wholesale Prices YoY 
09:30 Sweden Inflation Rate MoM 
09:30 Sweden CPIF YoY 
11:00 Euro Area Industrial Production MoM 
11:00 Euro Area Industrial Production YoY 
12:00 Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY 
13:00 India Inflation Rate YoY
NEWS
China December Imports Drops the Most Since 2016 
China Exports Unexpectedly Falls in December 
China Posts Largest Trade Surplus Since 2015 
China Foreign Direct Investment Rises 3% in 2018 
Irish Construction Activity at 4-Month High in December 
Nicaragua Inflation Rate Falls to 16-Month Low 
US Stocks Edge Lower on Friday 
Uruguay Factory Growth Slows Sharply in November 
Mexico Industrial Output Falls for First Time in 8 Months 
Kosovo Inflation Rate at 10-Month High of 2.9% in December 
US Inflation Rate Lowest in 16 Months 
Belarus Inflation Rate at 3-Month High of 5.6% in December

Source: Trading Economics, Macroafricaintel Research

#Africa #Markets | 11 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks reach 5-wk high, yuan makes weekly gains
  • Powell says Fed can be patient as US economy evolves in 2019
  • China’s top trade negotiator to visit US in January
  • Yuan hits 5-mth high, to make biggest weekly gain since 2005
  • Trump threatens to use emergency power to fund Mexico wall

Oil Markets

  • Oil slips on economic worries, but still set for strong weekly gain
  • Oil prices supported by OPEC-led supply cuts
  • But surging US production could undermine OPEC efforts
  • Brent crude futures down 0.2 pct at $61.55 per barrel (0333GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures down 0.1 pct at $52.52 per barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices inch up as dollar softens on Fed rate outlook
  • Spot gold up 0.2 pct at $1,288.83 per ounce (0117GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2 pct at $1,289.40 per ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans edge higher, set for first weekly fall in three weeks
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up about 0.1 pct at $5.14 per bushel (0202GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.3 pct at $3.77-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active soy futures up 0.3 pct at $9.09-1/4 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures unchanged at $10.85 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Top officials of South Africa’s ruling ANC on the road across country for 107th anniversary activities

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • In Cairo, Pompeo blasts Obama’s Middle East policies
  • South Africa’s Steinhoff says creditor challenges debt restructuring
  • Sudan forces fire tear gas to break up Omdurman protests
  • Congo’s president-elect steps out of father’s shadow but doubts persist
  • EU wheat at 1-wk low as Egypt tender leaves export hangover
  • Company led by ex-MTN Nigeria CEO Wood exits 9mobile
  • Africa Crude – Chinese demand for Angola heats up; Europeans seek Nigerian
  • Miss Algeria trolled for skin colour after winning title
  • Ethiopia charges ex-head of military firm METEC with corruption
  • Zimbabwe unions reject 10 pct pay rise offer
  • Egypt’s urban inflation drops to 12 pct as food prices fall
  • Egypt’s current account deficit narrows in July-Sept quarter – cbank
  • Egypt’s core inflation increases to 8.3 pct y/y in December – cbank
  • Ivory Coast cocoa grind up 9 pct through December – exporter stats
  • South Africa’s Woolworths pulls baby carriers after copying scandal
  • Congo Catholic church disputes presidential election outcome
  • South Africa calls for restraint over DRC election result
  • Tanzania fines Acacia Mining for breaching environmental regulations
  • South Africa’s manufacturing output rises 1.6 pct y/y in November
  • Ex-Mozambique finimin court case postponed – legal team
  • Ugandan shilling unchanged as demand from banks ebbs
  • South African business confidence index falls in December
  • Kenyan shilling firm amid high liquidity
  • Belgium to raise doubts about Congo vote result at UN
  • Zimbabwe doctors end strike without deal as unions meet govt
  • Congo presidential loser’s supporters cry foul after surprise result
  • Kabila advisor accepts election defeat; says democracy triumphed
  • Sibyanye-Stillwater expects gold output to miss forecast amid wage strike
  • French foreign minister questions Congo election result
  • Egypt non-oil private sector activity shrinks in December, but at slowing rate

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters