#Africa #Markets | 25 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares shaky after Trump ditches summit with North Korea
  • South Korean shares down 0.65 pct
  • Vix at 4-mth low as investors used to Trump tactics
  • Oil dips on speculation output cuts may be relaxed

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices ease after Russia says it may gradually raise output
  • Russia has been withholding supply with OPEC since 2017
  • OPEC, non-OPEC producers to meet in June to discuss production
  • Russia says supply restrictions could be eased “softly”
  • Brent crude futures down 1 cent at $78.78 per barrel (0024GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures down 2 cents at $70.69 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices slip but hold above $1,300
  • Spot gold down 0.2 pct at $1,302 per ounce (0100GMT)
  • US gold futures for June delivery down 0.2 pct at $1,301.90 per ounce

Grains

  • Wheat set for weekly gain pct as dry weather threatens global output
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.2 pct at $5.31-1/2 per bushel (0038GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.1 pct at $4.04-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active soybean futures up 0.3 pct at $10.38-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures down 0.5 pct at $11.51 per hundredweight

Soft commodities (24 May)

  • Sugar at 8-week highs as truckers strike in Brazil
  • July raw sugar settled up 0.2 pct at 12.38 cents per lb
  • August white sugar settled up 0.6 pct at $351.40 per tonne
  • July arabica coffee settled up 1 pct at $1.2055 per lb
  • July robusta coffee settled up 0.2 pct at $1,755 per tonne
  • July London cocoa settled down 0.9 pct at £1,865 per tonne
  • July New York cocoa settled down 0.6 pct at $2,603 per tonne

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • African Liberation Day today
  • Final day of AfDB Annual Meetings in Busan, South Korea, today

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Impact of fighting on civilians in Libya’s Derna ‘devastating’ – UN
  • Algeria’s Sonatrach hopes for Exxon Mobil deal on shale gas
  • Egypt state security orders prominent blogger Wael Abbas detained for 15 days
  • Morocco’s Rif protest leader on hunger strike, father says
  • Burundi opposition push to annul vote extending president’s term
  • Nigeria’s Bodo community claims win over Shell after latest UK court ruling
  • South Africa authorities halt flights of state-run SA Express
  • Militia attacks Banro Corp’s east Congo gold mine – geologist
  • South African central bank holds repo rate at 6.5%, sees upside risks to CPI
  • US raises concerns over Egyptian activists’ arrests – W.House
  • Yields on Kenya’s 91-day, 182-day and 364 day t-bills dip at auction
  • South Africa probe into influence peddling to start hearings in August
  • Angola central bank holds benchmark rate at 18 pct
  • South African child who was kidnapped for bitcoin is found
  • Tunisian parties discuss cabinet reshuffle, exit of prime minister
  • Infection alert after dying Ebola patients taken to Congo prayer meeting
  • China applauds Burkina Faso decision to cut ties with Taiwan
  • Kenya’s treasury avoids dealing with rate cap in draft law
  • Kenya aims to issue green sovereign bond in 2018/19
  • Sudan says committed to Yemen military campaign, weeks after signalling doubts
  • South Africa confirms Hadebe as CEO of struggling Eskom
  • Kenya’s treasury wants to regulate ‘predatory lending’ – official
  • Kenya’s central bank sells dollars to the market after shilling weakens – traders

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 25 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Time Data/Event Previous Consensus
0800GMT Germany Ifo Business Climate MAY 102.1 102.7
0830GMT UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1 0.4% 0.1%
0830GMT UK GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q1 1.4% 1.2%
1130GMT India Foreign Exchange Reserves 26/MAY $417.7B
1130GMT India Deposit Growth YoY 12/MAY 8.2%
1130GMT india Bank Loan Growth YoY 12/MAY 12.6%
1230GMT US Durable Goods Orders MoM APR 2.6% -1.4%
1400GMT US Michigan Consumer Expectations Final MAY 88.4 86.9
1700GMT US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 25/MAY 844

#Africa #Markets | 24 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia markets lower on renewed US-China trade concerns
  • Trump says ‘different structure’ needed in US-China trade talks
  • US Federal Reserve minutes reassure on rate rises
  • Oil prices flat after Wednesday falls in US inventory build

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices drop on potential increase in OPEC output
  • Brent crude futures down 0.2 pct at $79.65 per barrel (0103GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures down 0.1 pct at $71.74 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices extend gains after dovish Fed stance
  • Spot gold up 0.1 pct at $1,294.58 per ounce (0046GMT)
  • US gold futures for June delivery up 0.3 pct at $1,294 per ounce

Grains

  • Soybeans firm, hit 20-day as China to buy US supplies
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.2 pct at $5.32-1/4 per bushel (0137GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.1 pct at $4.09 per bushel
  • Most active soybean futures up 0.4 pct at $10.43-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures down 0.2 pct at $11.90 per hundredweight

Soft commodities (23 May)

  • Sugar extends gains to highest in more than 6 weeks
  • July raw sugar settled up 1.7 pct to 12.35 cents per lb
  • August white sugar settled up 1.9 pct at $349.90 per tonne
  • July New York cocoa settled up 1.1 pct at $2,618 per tonee
  • July London cocoa settled up 1.4 pct at £1,882 per tonne
  • July arabica coffee settled down 1.2 pct at $1.1935 per lb
  • July robusta coffee settled down 2.2 pct at $1,751 per tonne

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • AfDB annual meetings continues in Busan, South Korea (21-25 May)
  • South Africa’s central bank to decide interest rates [fcst. 6.25%, prev. 6.5%]

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria’s military committed war crimes, crimes against humanity – Amnesty
  • Libya cuts oil output by up to 120,000 bpd due to power problems – official
  • Algeria to expel 105 Malians over Ansar Eddine militant group – source
  • South Sudan peace talks end without deal – mediators
  • US to send experimental ebola treatment to Congo – official
  • Voltalia signs power sale contract in Kenya
  • Egypt and Russia sign 50-yr industrial zone agreement
  • France to push Libya accord at new Paris meeting, diplomats say
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa sets up inquiry into tax service under Zuma
  • Libyan oilfield suffers ‘distribution delay’ amid protest threat
  • Ebola patients slip out of a Congo hospital as medics try to control outbreak
  • Africa Crude – HPCL takes Nigerian, more programmes emerge
  • Kenya central bank 15-yr bond yield at 13.078 pct in auctions
  • Protesters urge workers at Libya’s eastern Wahan oilfield to stop production
  • Zimbabwe army won’t allow opposition to rule – minister
  • Nigeria’s Trans Forcados crude oil pipeline ramping back – sources
  • Irregular expenditure almost doubles at South African municipalities – Auditor General
  • Libya ships first cargo of propane gas to Italy in four years – NOC
  • Freeing Congo’s Mokoko must be condition for IMF deal – opposition lawyers
  • Zuma ally resigns after anti-graft protests in South African province
  • Guinea parliamentary majority rejects calls for Bollore inquiry
  • AngloGold plans 2,000 job cuts in South Africa
  • Egypt detains prominent blogger, latest in arrest series
  • Botswana court reverses ruling to end Tati Nickel’s liquidation
  • Ethiopia opens up telecoms sector to limited competition
  • Change policy to scale up climate-smart farming in Africa – experts
  • Royal Air Maroc, Alitalia sign code sharing deal
  • Shell says Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude still under force majeure
  • Rwanda signs tourism sponsorship deal with Arsenal
  • Algeria’s Sonatrach says no plans to buy more foreign refineries
  • South African provincial premier steps down after anti-graft protest
  • Ghana producer inflation rises to 6.4 pct in April
  • Storm in Somaliland kills dozens, wipes out farms, livestock
  • Crisis-hit Steinhoff repays $2.3 bln African debt
  • South Africa’s CPI jumps in April to 4.5 pct as VAT pain, fuel hikes kick-in
  • Cholera outbreak kills 12 in northeast Nigeria
  • South Africa kidnappers demand ransom in bitcoin to free teenager
  • Egypt tourism revenue jump 83 pct to $2.2 bln in Q1 – govt official
  • UK court convicts pensioner for raping girls in Kenya

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 24 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Time Data/Event Previous Consensus
0500GMT Japan Coincident Index Final MAR 116 116.3
0500GMT Japan Leading Economic Index Final MAR 105.9 105.6
0600GMT Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUN 10.8 10.8
0600GMT Germany GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1 0.6% 0.3%
0600GMT Germany GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1 2.9% 2.3%
0830GMT UK Retail Sales MoM APR -1.2% 0.7%
0830GMT UK Retail Sales YoY APR 1.1% 0.1%
1230GMT US Continuing Jobless Claims 12/MAY 1707K 1754K
1230GMT US Initial Jobless Claims 19/MAY 222K 220K
1300GMT South Africa Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5%
1300GMT US House Price Index MoM MAR 0.6% 0.5%
1400GMT US Existing Home Sales MoM APR 1.1% -0.2%
1400GMT US Existing Home Sales APR 5.6M 5.57M
1430GMT US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change 18/MAY 106Bcf 92Bcf
1500GMT US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index MAY 33.0
1700GMT US 7-Year Note Auction 2.95%

#Africa #Markets | 23 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares pressured as Trump tempers Sino-US trade optimism
  • Trump says not pleased by recent trade talks with China
  • Turkish lira tumbles after rating agency warnings
  • Oil prices near 3 1/2 –year high on supply concerns

Oil Markets

  • Oil dips after rally, OPEC may ease supply curbs
  • Brent futures down 4 cents to $79.53 a barrel (0006GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures down 2 cents to $72.18 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold rises, market eyes US-China trade talks, Fed minutes
  • Spot gold up 0.2 pct at $1,293.53 per ounce (0112GMT)
  • US gold futures for June delivery little changed at $1,292.50 per ounce

Grains

  • Wheat firms to linger near 18-day high on fears for global production
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures up 0.6 pct at $5.24-3/4 a bushel (0100GMT)
  • Most active corn futures up 0.2 pct at $4.05-1/2 per bushel
  • Most active soybean futures down 0.1 pct at $10.29-3/4 per bushel
  • Most active rice futures unchanged at $12.33 per hundredweight

Soft commodities (22 May)

  • Raw sugar at 5-wk high on India buffer stocks plan
  • July raw sugar settled up 0.4 pct at 12.15 cents per lb
  • August white sugar settled up 0.9 pct at $343 per tonne
  • July New York cocoa settled down 1 pct at $2,589 per tonne
  • July London cocoa settled down 0.3 pct at £1,857 per tonne
  • July arabica coffee settled up 0.5 pct at $1.2085 per lb
  • July robusta coffee settled down 0.3 pct at $1,790 per tonne

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • AfDB annual meetings continue in Busan, South Korea (21-25 May)
  • South African inflation data for Apr-18 due [fcst. 3.9% yy, prev. 3.8%]
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa presents budget for presidency in parliament today
  • Zimbabwe’s Mugabe could testify before parliament today in $15 bln diamond revenue loss probe

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Ghana president demands criminal probe into soccer body chief
  • Rights group accuses Egypt of mass demolition of homes in Sinai
  • Two more die of Ebola in Congo; seven new cases confirmed
  • UN criticizes Algeria for mass deportations of migrants
  • Clashes intensify in east Libya as car bomb kills two
  • Shell’s oil spill dispute with Nigeria’s Bodo villagers back in UK court
  • Former PM says Libya risks partition if it rushes to elections
  • Africa Crude – Nigeria market struggles with unsold cargoes
  • With Nigeria’s central bank holding rates, doubts arise over cuts
  • Nigeria’s central bank keeps benchmark lending rate at 14 pct.
  • Barry Callebaut to boost Ivory Coast cocoa grinding capacity
  • South Africa land reform unlikely to mean constitutional change – analysts
  • Burkina Faso forces kill 3 suspected Islamist militants in early morning raid
  • South Africa’s ANC to “test constitution” on land expropriation
  • Ivory Coast grinding up 2 percent by end-April – exporters
  • Yields rise in weekly South African govt bond auctions
  • South Africa’s finimin Nene says outlook for tax revenues unchanged
  • Kenyan shilling weakens on increased importer demand
  • Ugandan shilling unchanged, weakened by fuel importer demand
  • ATON raises stake in South African target Murray & Roberts to 40 pct
  • Egypt sets deadlines for oil and gas exploration bids
  • Africa’s green revolutions stumbles at Congo project to solve food shortages

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

#Global #Markets | 23 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Time Data/Event Previous Consensus
0030GMT Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash MAY 53.3 53.6
0130GMT Australia Construction Work Done QoQ Q1 -19.4% 1.1%
0430GMT Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM MAR 0.4% 0.1%
0730GMT Germany Markit Composite PMI Flash MAY 54.6 54.7
0730GMT Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAY 58.1 57.8
0730GMT Germany Markit Services PMI Flash MAY 53.0 53.0
0800GMT Euro Area Markit Composite PMI Flash MAY 55.1 55.0
0800GMT Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAY 56.2 56.0
0800GMT Markit Services PMI Flash MAY 54.7 54.6
0800GMT South Africa Core Inflation Rate YoY APR 4.1% 4.5%
0800GMT South Africa Inflation Rate YoY APR 3.8% 4.7%
0800GMT South Africa Inflation Rate MoM APR 0.4% 0.8%
0830GMT UK Core Inflation Rate YoY APR 2.3% 2.2%
0830GMT UK Retail Price Index YoY APR 3.3% 3.4%
0830GMT UK Retail Price Index MoM APR 0.1% 0.5%
0830GMT UK Inflation Rate YoY APR 2.5% 2.5%
0830GMT UK Inflation Rate MoM APR 0.1% 0.5%
1100GMT US MBA Mortgage Applications 18/MAY -2.7%
1100GMT US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 18/MAY 4.77%
1345GMT US Markit Composite PMI Flash MAY 54.9 55.0
1345GMT US Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAY 56.5 56.5
1345GMT US Markit Services PMI Flash MAY 54.6 54.9
1400GMT Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash MAY 0.4 0.4
1400GMT US New Home Sales MoM APR 4.0% -2.0%
1400GMT US New Home Sales APR 0.694M 0.679M
1430GMT US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 18/MAY -1.404M -2.5M
1430GMT US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 18/MAY -3.79M -1.508M
1700GMT US 5-Year Note Auction 2.84%
1800GMT US FOMC Minutes
2300GMT Japan Reuters Tankan Index MAY 21
2350GMT Japan Foreign Bond Investment 19/MAY ¥827B
2350GMT Stock Investment by Foreigners 19/MAY ¥126.3B

#Africa #Markets | 22 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares stumble as dollar strengthens, oil surges
  • MSCI ex-Japan up 0.1 pct, Nikkei flat despite strong Wall St
  • Dollar near four-mth highs vs yen, near 6-mth top vs euro
  • Oil near 2014 highs after Venezuela’s presidential elections

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices rise on worries over Venezuelan supply
  • Venezuela vote stokes concerns over oil supply from country
  • Oil markets tight on OPEC cuts, looming US sanctions on Iran
  • US, China appear to step back from brink of trade war
  • Brent crude futures up 15 cents at $79.37 per barrel (0110GMT)
  • US WTI crude futures up 25 cents at $72.49 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold prices steady on weaker dollar
  • Spot gold nearly unchanged at $1,292.66 per ounce (0044GMT)
  • US gold futures for June delivery up 0.1 pct at $1,292.50 per ounce

Grains

  • US soybeans edge down from 11-day high on USDA planting report
  • Most active CBOT wheat futures down 0.2 pct at $5.06-1/4 per bushel (0142GMT)
  • Most active corn futures down 0.3 pct at $4.01-3/4 per bushel
  • Most active soybean futures down 0.3 pct at $10.22-1/4 a bushel
  • Most active rice futures nearly unchanged at $12.23 per hundredweight

Soft commodities (21 May)

  • Raw sugar sees biggest rally in 2018, arabica coffee jumps
  • July raw sugar settled up 3.8 pct at 12.1 cents per lb
  • August white sugar settled up 3 pct at $340 per tonne
  • July arabica coffee settled up 1.9 pct at $1.202 per bonne
  • July robusta coffee settled up 1.9 pct at $1,795 per tonne
  • July New York cocoa settled down 2.4 pct at $2,615 per tonne
  • July London cocoa settled down 1 pct at £1,863 per tonne

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria’s central bank’s interest rate decision today [forecast is 14%; unchanged]
  • South Africa’s central bank starts 3-day MPC meeting today [fcst. 6.25%, prev. 6.5%]
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa to address COSATU meet today

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Guinea’s Conde names new PM amid rising political tensions
  • Production vessel at Ghana’s Jubilee oilfield shut temporarily
  • Burundi approves new constitution extending presidential term limit
  • US says Burundi constitutional referendum ‘marred’
  • Zimbabwe sets new date for Mugabe hearing, doubts over his apperance
  • Congo begins giving experimental ebola vaccine to medics
  • Africa – Crude-Nigerian overhang persists, tenders drag on trade
  • Zimbabwe applies to re-join Commonwealth, invites poll obsevers
  • Algeria cancels plan to let foreigners into farmland concessions
  • Ghana central bank cuts policy rate to 17 pct
  • South Africa agrees modest wage deal with state workers
  • Drought, armyworms cut Malawi maize crop by 19 pct – minister
  • Congo begins ebola vaccinations in northwest city – witness
  • Kenya clears fuel spillage after cargo train derails on coast
  • WHO says ebola preparedness much better now than in 2014
  • Nigeria sends request for proposal to banks for eurobond – sources
  • Egypt to hold 2 international bid rounds for oil, gas explorations – statement
  • Offshore investors net sellers of South African stocks, bonds
  • Nigeria’s economic growth slows for first time since end of season
  • Shell says force majeure still in place on Nigerian Bonny crude

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters