macroafricaintel | South Africa – Revision of forecasts

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

Click to download PDF version

South Africa Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2017 2018 2019
GDP Quarterly % Change (saa)   1.2 0.6 2.8 -1.2 2.0 0.4 2.0      
GDP Annual % Change 0.5 0.9 1.7
CPI Quarterly % Change   5.2 5.0 5.1 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.5      
CPI Annual Average % Change 5.3 4.0 2.9
C/A Quarterly Average % Change -4.1 -4.3 -4.5 -4.6 -4.4 -4.1 -4.4 -4.2      
C/A Annual Average % Change -4.4 -4.3 -4.1
PPI Quarterly % Change yy   4.5 5.2 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3      
PPI Annual Average % Change 4.8 4.2 4.3
Repo Rate Long Term Forecast   7.0 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0      
Repo Rate Long Term Forecast 6.5 6.0 5.0

macroafricaintel | Nigeria – Revision of forecasts

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

See PDF copy of presentation viz. macroafricaintel-nigeria-brief-nov-2016-updated

See Q4-2016 Outlook report for reference viz. https://macroafricaintelligence.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/macroafricaintel-q4-2016-outlook-nigeria.pdf

macroafricaintel-nigeria-brief-1

macroafricaintel-nigeria-brief-2

Real GDP Growth % qq % yy
Q1 2015 -11.6 4.0
Q2 2015 2.6 2.4
Q3 2015 9.2 2.8
Q4 2015 3.1 2.1
Q1 2016 -13.7 -0.4
Q2 2016 0.8 -2.1
Q3 2016 9.0 -2.2
Q4 2016F 4.0 -1.4
Q1 2017F -10.0 2.9
Q2 2017F 2.0 4.1
Real GDP Growth %
2016F -1.5
2017F 3.0
2018F 3.1

macroafricaintel | South Africa – Revision of forecasts

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

See Q4-2016 outlook report for reference: https://macroafricaintelligence.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/macroafricaintel-q4-2016-outlook-south-africa.pdf

Oct-16
South Africa Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 2016 2017 2018
GDP Quarterly % change 0.0 2.6 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.0
GDP Annual % change 0.2 1.9 1.7
CPI Quarterly % change 6.8 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.1
CPI Annual average % change 6.3 5.2 4.9
Current account Quarterly average % change -4.1 -4.4 -4.3 -4.5 -4.6 -4.4
Current account Annual average % change -4.7 -4.5 -4.4
PPI quarterly % change yy 7.5 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.6
PPI annual average % change 7.2 5.0 4.5
Repo rate long term forecast 7.00 7.00 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.50
Repo rate long term forecast 7.00 6.50 6.00

macroafricaintel | South Africa – Revision of forecasts

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

See Q2-2016 outlook report for reference: https://macroafricaintelligence.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/macroafricaintel-q2-2016-outlook-south-africa.pdf 

Jun-16
South Africa Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 2016 2017 2018
GDP Quarterly % change -1.10 0.30 0.00 2.70 3.10 1.70
GDP Annual % change -0.20 2.40 1.70
CPI Quarterly % change 6.30 6.50 7.60 6.50 6.20 6.30
CPI Annual average % change 6.50 6.40 5.90
Current account Quarterly average % change -5.60 -5.30 -5.10 -5.40 -5.30 -5.50
Current account Annual average % change -5.70 -5.50 -5.40
PPI quarterly % change yy 6.70 7.50 7.50 5.30 4.80 4.70
PPI annual average % change 7.20 5.00 4.50
Repo rate long term forecast 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
Repo rate long term forecast 7.50 7.50 7.00