By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji
| Q1 2018a | Q2 2018f | Q3 2018f | Q4 2018f | |
| -13.40% | 3.00% | 8.50% | 3.00% | |
| yy | 1.95% | 1.56% | 1.35% | -0.31% |
| Q1 2019f | Q2 2019f | Q3 2019f | Q4 2019f | |
| -10.00% | 3.50% | 6.00% | 3.50% | |
| yy | 3.60% | 4.10% | 1.70% | 2.19% |
| Source: NBS, Macroafricaintel Research | ||||
By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji
| Q1 2018F | Q2 2018F | Q3 2018F | Q4 2018F | 2018F | |
| -12.3 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | ||
| % yy | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 1.4 |
Source: Macroafricaintel Research
| Q1 2019F | Q2 2019F | Q3 2019F | Q4 2019F | 2019F | |
| -10.0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 3.5 | ||
| % yy | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Source: Macroafricaintel Research
| Q1 2017 | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | 2017 | |
| -13.3 | 3.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | ||
| % yy | -0.9 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
Source: NBS, Macroafricaintel Research
By Rafiq Raji, PhD
| South Africa | Q1 2017 | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| GDP Quarterly % Change (saa) | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | -1.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | ||||
| GDP Annual % Change | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | ||||||||
| CPI Quarterly % Change | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.5 | ||||
| CPI Annual Average % Change | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | ||||||||
| C/A Quarterly Average % Change | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 | -4.6 | -4.4 | -4.1 | -4.4 | -4.2 | |||
| C/A Annual Average % Change | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.1 | ||||||||
| PPI Quarterly % Change yy | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | ||||
| PPI Annual Average % Change | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.3 | ||||||||
| Repo Rate Long Term Forecast | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | ||||
| Repo Rate Long Term Forecast | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
We have revised our Nigeria and South Africa forecasts; to be published shortly.
By Rafiq Raji, PhD
By Rafiq Raji, PhD
See PDF copy of presentation viz. macroafricaintel-nigeria-brief-nov-2016-updated
See Q4-2016 Outlook report for reference viz. https://macroafricaintelligence.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/macroafricaintel-q4-2016-outlook-nigeria.pdf
| Real GDP Growth | % yy | |
| Q1 2015 | -11.6 | 4.0 |
| Q2 2015 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Q3 2015 | 9.2 | 2.8 |
| Q4 2015 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Q1 2016 | -13.7 | -0.4 |
| Q2 2016 | 0.8 | -2.1 |
| Q3 2016 | 9.0 | -2.2 |
| Q4 2016F | 4.0 | -1.4 |
| Q1 2017F | -10.0 | 2.9 |
| Q2 2017F | 2.0 | 4.1 |
| Real GDP Growth | % |
| 2016F | -1.5 |
| 2017F | 3.0 |
| 2018F | 3.1 |
By Rafiq Raji, PhD
See Q4-2016 outlook report for reference: https://macroafricaintelligence.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/macroafricaintel-q4-2016-outlook-south-africa.pdf
| Oct-16 | |||||||||
| South Africa | Q4 2016 | Q1 2017 | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | Q1 2018 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| GDP Quarterly % change | 0.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | |||
| GDP Annual % change | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | ||||||
| CPI Quarterly % change | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | |||
| CPI Annual average % change | 6.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | ||||||
| Current account Quarterly average % change | -4.1 | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.5 | -4.6 | -4.4 | |||
| Current account Annual average % change | -4.7 | -4.5 | -4.4 | ||||||
| PPI quarterly % change yy | 7.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | |||
| PPI annual average % change | 7.2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | ||||||
| Repo rate long term forecast | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.50 | 6.50 | |||
| Repo rate long term forecast | 7.00 | 6.50 | 6.00 |
By Rafiq Raji, PhD
See Q2-2016 outlook report for reference: https://macroafricaintelligence.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/macroafricaintel-q2-2016-outlook-south-africa.pdf
| Jun-16 | |||||||||
| South Africa | Q2 2016 | Q3 2016 | Q4 2016 | Q1 2017 | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| GDP Quarterly % change | -1.10 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 1.70 | |||
| GDP Annual % change | -0.20 | 2.40 | 1.70 | ||||||
| CPI Quarterly % change | 6.30 | 6.50 | 7.60 | 6.50 | 6.20 | 6.30 | |||
| CPI Annual average % change | 6.50 | 6.40 | 5.90 | ||||||
| Current account Quarterly average % change | -5.60 | -5.30 | -5.10 | -5.40 | -5.30 | -5.50 | |||
| Current account Annual average % change | -5.70 | -5.50 | -5.40 | ||||||
| PPI quarterly % change yy | 6.70 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 5.30 | 4.80 | 4.70 | |||
| PPI annual average % change | 7.20 | 5.00 | 4.50 | ||||||
| Repo rate long term forecast | 7.00 | 7.25 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | |||
| Repo rate long term forecast | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.00 |
We have cut our 2016 growth forecast to -0.2% (from 0.7% in our Q2 outlook report published in May.)
Other changes to be published in due course.
