macroafricaintel Weekly | 4 Dec

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

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Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
5 Dec South Africa GDP, % qq saa Q3 2017 0.6 2.5
6 Dec Namibia Policy Rate, % 6.75 6.75
7 Dec South Africa Gross Gold & FX Reserves, US$bn Nov 2017 49.1 48.9
7 Dec South Africa Mining Production, % yy Oct 2017 5.8 -0.9
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 3.3 (0.1) 3.5 (-0.4)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 3.6 (0.1) 3.5 (0.0)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 4.0 (0.1) 5.1 (-0.1)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 2.9 (0.1) 3.0 (0.0)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 5.1 (0.2) 5.2 (0.1)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 15.8 (0.7) 15.9 (0.8)
Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 11.6 (0.7) 11.6 (0.9)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 4.9 (0.4) 4.8 (0.3)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Nov 2017 13.4 (0.4) 12.2 (0.3)

 

macroafricaintel Weekly | 6 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

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Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
7 Nov South Africa Gross Gold & FX reserves, US$bn Oct 2017 49.7 49.4
7 Nov Nigeria Budget presentation 2018
8 Nov Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 10.8 (0.2) 12.2 (0.0)
9 Nov South Africa Manufacturing Production, % yy Sep 2017 0.6 1.5
9 Nov South Africa Mining Production, % yy Sep 2017 6.5 6.9
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 13.2 (1.3) 10.8 (2.4)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 5.4 (0.2) 5.3 (0.0)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 4.1 (0.1) 3.5 (-1.0)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 3.1 (0.1) 3.2 (0.1)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 3.5 (0.1) 3.2 (-0.3)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 5.3 (0.2) 5.6 (0.4)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 15.9 (0.8) 16.0 (0.8)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 4.8 (0.3) 5.1 (0.5)

macroafricaintel Weekly | 30 Oct

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

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Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
30 Oct South Africa M3, % yy Sep 2017 6.3 6.5
30 Oct South Africa PSCE, % yy Sep 2017 4.8 6.0
31 Oct Kenya CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 6.6 (0.2) 7.1 (-0.6)
31 Oct Uganda CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 5.1 (0.6) 5.3 (1.0)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 13.2 (1.3) 10.8 (2.4)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 5.4 (0.2) 5.3 (0.0)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 4.1 (0.1) 3.5 (-1.0)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 3.1 (0.1) 3.2 (0.1)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 3.5 (0.1) 3.2 (-0.3)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 5.3 (0.2) 5.6 (0.4)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 15.9 (0.8) 16.0 (0.8)
Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 10.8 (0.2) 12.2 (0.0)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2017 4.8 (0.3) 5.1 (0.5)

macroafricaintel Weekly | 02 Oct

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

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Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
2 Oct Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 4.5 (0.1) 4.6 (0.0)
6 Oct Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 5.1 (-0.1) 5.0 (-0.4)
6 Oct Uganda Policy Rate, % 9.0 10.0
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 3.3 (0.2) 3.4 (0.1)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 3.7 (0.2) 3.9 (0.2)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 5.4 (0.2) 5.4 (0.1)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 16.0 (0.8) 16.0 (1.0)
Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 12.5 (0.3) 12.3 (-0.2)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 4.8 (0.2) 4.8 (0.1)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Sep 2017 9.3 (1.0) 10.4 (1.5)

macroafricaintel | Blue economy: Nigeria could learn from Seychelles

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

Some years ago, at an investor event in London, a prominent Africa-focused portfolio manager wondered if anyone knew where he could get research on Seychelles. The firm I used to work for at the time had perhaps the most comprehensive African macroeconomic research coverage, including such countries as Sierra Leone, The Gambia and so on; which I incidentally covered at the time, but no, we did not cover Seychelles. The reason was not farfetched. It is a small country, even by African standards. When you think of Seychelles, the thought that immediately comes to mind are its beaches and other tourist attractions. Turns out, its economy is also well-run. Of course, I had since moved on to other things. But just recently, a contact wondered if my budding research firm, Macroafricaintel, had any report on the country. I wondered what spurred the sudden interest. She graciously explained her curiosity was aroused by such innovative solutions coming from the country like the proposed US$15 million blue bond, the proceeds from which would be used to fund the development of sustainable fisheries. Just so you know how impressive it is, it earned the 2017 Ocean Innovation Challenge award at The Economist World Ocean Summit earlier in the year. In 2016, Seychelles also struck a “debt-for-adaptation” deal with the Paris Club in partnership with The Nature Conservancy (TNC), an American non-profit environmental organisation. In exchange for promising to protect at least 30 percent of the country’s waters by 2020, authorities got debt relief to the tune of US$21.6 million. Authorities would thus now be able to disburse about US$280 thousand per year from the interest savings to train fishermen, do research and so on. Unsurprisingly, other African countries with similar endowments like Mauritius, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, and the Comoro Islands are now looking to develop similar initiatives, according to The Economist, a British newspaper. But if they hope to succeed, they must first start with a blue economy roadmap like Seychelles did. What is a blue economy, though? Seychelles’ finance, trade and the blue economy minister, Jean-Paul Adam, defines it “as all those economic activities that directly or indirectly take place in the ocean, use outputs from the ocean, and put goods and services into ocean activities.” With tourism and fisheries accounting for 11 percent of its workforce and 33 percent of its GDP, the Seycehellois government clearly has good reason to take its blue economy seriously.

Collaborate to secure waters
For a very long time, fishing boats from Europe and elsewhere have prowled the continent’s waters with impunity, pillaging them for fish and everything else in between. Oceana, an American non-profit organisation dedicated to protecting and restoring the world’s oceans, released a report in September that put illegal fishing costs to West African countries at about US$2.3 billion per annum. It reports 19 vessels from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece illegally spent about 31,000 hours on Gambian waters between April 2012 and August 2015. Perhaps in response, The Gambia has decided to do something about it, announcing ongoing negotiations with at least three private firms to police its waters and stem the pillaging of their marine life. Greater collaboration between African countries, especially West African ones, would help a great deal, though. And surely for an industry with an estimated output of US$1 trillion per year, it should not be too difficult for African governments to be enthused about doing so. There are already some initiatives in this regard. The African Charter on Maritime Security, Safety and Development in Africa (“Lome Charter”), adopted at the African Union (AU) extraordinary summit on maritime security and safety and development in Africa in October 2016, builds on earlier collaboration mechanisms like the 2009 Djibouti Code of Conduct, 2013 Yaounde Code of Conduct and 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy adopted in 2014. The Lome Charter is a huge step as it formalizes what is referred to as a “blue economy”, defining it as “sustainable economic development of oceans using such technics as regional development to integrate the use of seas and oceans, coasts, lakes, rivers, and underground water for economic purposes, including, but without being limited to fisheries, mining, energy, aquaculture and maritime transport, while protecting the sea to improve social wellbeing”.

Make blue economy part of diversification agenda
One is not aware of a robust government policy on fishing in Nigeria. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, the most recent 4-year strategic plan of the government, espouses the need to diversify the economy but does not elaborately consider how the blue economy would be tapped in this regard. It mentions fisheries as part of its agricultural policy, though, but does not spell out specific initiatives. Maritime policy in Nigeria is more focused on shipping and security via two principal agencies: the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA). Their utility is seen primarily through the lens of the revenue they generate for the government through these activiities. Deep-seated corruption at the agencies means the government has been perennially short-changed, though. Even so, they could be doing so much more. And like the Seychellois example shows, an ambitious blue economy agenda need not weigh significantly on the government’s finances: it could be self-funding if creativity is applied. In the Nigerian case, however, any potential gains would require some initial investment by the government to resuscitate the country’s polluted coasts and waters, especially in the Niger Delta region. Nigeria’s blue economy could offer so much more than oil.

Also published in my Premium Times Nigeria column. See link viz. http://opinion.premiumtimesng.com/2017/09/15/a-blue-economy-what-nigeria-could-learn-from-seychelles-by-rafiq-raji/

macroafricaintel Weekly | 04 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

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Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
5 Sep Nigeria GDP, % yy Q2 2017 -0.2 -0.5
5 Sep South Africa GDP, % qq saa Q2 2017 1.2 -0.7
5 Sep South Africa GDP, % yy Q2 2017 -0.2 1.0
6 Sep Mauritius Policy Rate, % 4.0 4.0
7 Sep South Africa Gross Gold & FX Reserves, US$bn Aug 2017 47.1 46.7
8 Sep Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 5.5 (0.1) 5.2 (-0.2)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 9.8 (0.9) 9.4 (1.0)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 3.5 (0.2) 3.4 (0.1)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 4.5 (0.0) 5.3 (-0.9)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 4.1 (0.3) 3.2 (0.3)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 5.4 (0.1) 5.4 (0.0)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 16.0 (1.0) 16.0 (1.2)
Ghana CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 13.3 (0.6) 11.9 (0.7)

macroafricaintel Weekly | 28 Aug

By Rafiq Raji, PhD

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Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
28 Aug Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Jul 2017 16.2 (1.3) 16.1 (1.6)
30 Aug South Africa M3, % yy Jul 2017 6.0 6.0
30 Aug South Africa PSCE, % yy Jul 2017 6.1 6.2
31 Aug South Africa PPI, % yy (mm) Jul 2017 3.3 (0.2) 4.0 (-0.3)
31 Aug Kenya CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 7.6 (0.2) 7.5 (-1.0)
31 Aug Uganda CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 5.1 (0.1) 5.7 (-0.5)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 5.5 (0.1) 5.2 (-0.2)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 9.8 (0.9) 9.4 (1.0)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 3.5 (0.2) 3.4 (0.1)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 4.5 (0.0) 5.3 (-0.9)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 4.1 (0.3) 3.2 (0.3)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Aug 2017 5.4 (0.1) 5.4 (0.0)
Nigeria GDP, % yy Q2 2017 -0.2 -0.5