macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 27 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Global covid-19 cases surpass 100 mln as nations tackle vaccine shortages
• Asia shares slip, Microsoft’s brisk earnings boost tech sector
• US consumer confidence edges higher; house prices accelerate
• China’s industrial profits extend growth in December amid brisk factory recovery
• US judge blocks deportation freeze in swift setback for Biden
• Oil rises as US oil stockpiles drop, new Chinese covid-19 cases decline
• Brent up 0.2% at $56.02, WTI up 0.2% at $52.71 (0229GMT)
• Gold steady ahead of US Fed policy decision
• Spot gold little changed at $1,849.76/oz., futures down 0.1% at $1,848.60 (0031GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%]
• Nigeria’s Buhari cabinet meets; after welcome replacement of military chiefs
• Kenya’s Uhuru & Raila intensify BBI campaigns; duo take on Ruto as process moves to counties
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Virtual World Economic Forum (24-29 Jan)
• Bank of Ghana MPC meets [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%] (26-29 Jan & 1 Feb)
• Fitch briefing on SSA sovereigns & banks credit outlook (28 Jan)
• South Africa PPI Dec-20 [fcst. 3.1% yy, prev. 3.0%] (28 Jan)
• Kenya inflation Jan-21 [fcst. 5.6% yy (1.0% mm), prev. 6.1% (1.0%)] (29 Jan)
• South Africa PSCE Dec-20 [fcst. 3.6% yy, prev. 3.4%] (29 Jan)
• South Africa M3 Dec-20 [fcst. 9.5% yy, prev. 8.2%] (29 Jan)
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Gambia vows to name and shame lastest covid-19 quarantine cheats
• Nigeria names new military chiefs amid rising militant violence
• Lilly testing new antibody for South Africa coronavirus variant, says company executive
• ‘Everywhere I am in chains,’ says Uganda’s Wine after home arrest lifted
• Pirates kidnap 15 Turkey sailors in attack on container ship off Nigeria
• Stop hoarding covid-19 vaccines, South Africa’s Ramaphosa tells rich nations
• Nigeria central bank holds benchmark lending rate at 11.5%
• Aid workers warn on covid-19 in camps for Mozambique cyclone victims
• Kenya to cut fiscal deficit in 2021/22 to 7.5% of GDP, Treasury says
• Morocco prepares to launch covid-19 vaccination programme
• Tunisia president rejects reshuffle, escalating political crisis
• South Africa plans three renewable energy rounds over coming year

Bloomberg
• Oil companies fear Nigeria plan may deter offshore investment
• South Africa starts $79 mln fund to help tourism industry
• Nigeria central bank chief rebuffs money-printing criticism
• Zimbabwe plans to buy virus shots for two-thirds of population
• Ivory Coast cocoa farmers bemoan bean sales despite good weather
• Uganda’s Bobi Wine demands supporters release after he’s freed
• South Africa cracks down on bitcoin after alleged ponzi scheme
• Tunisia premier promises broad economic reform amid unrest
• Libya oil flow rises on pipeline fix as pay talks continue
• Liberia sees $800 mln ArcelorMittal investment this year
• African Bank reports loss a day after CEO’s surprise resignation
• South Africa stocks post biggest drop this month on Tencent effect
• In Zimbabwe, coronavirus sick told to buy their own ventilators

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 26 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• US Senate votes overwhelmingly to confirm Yellen as first female treasury chief
• China to conduct military drills in South China Sea amid tensions with US
• Asia stocks post biggest fall in 2 months on US stimulus worries
• Oil drops as US stimulus wrangles, rising covid-19 cases hit sentiment
• Brent down 0.5% at $55.60, WTI down 0.5% at $52.52 (0431GMT)
• Gold rises on US stimulus hopes; firm dollar weighs
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,856.33/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,856.80 (0549GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Central Bank of Nigeria decides interest rates [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%]
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Virtual World Economic Forum; South Africa’s Ramaphosa speaks today (24-29 Jan)
• Bank of Ghana MPC meets [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%] (26-29 Jan & 1 Feb)
• Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%] (27 Jan)
• Fitch briefing on SSA sovereigns & banks credit outlook (28 Jan)
• South Africa PPI Dec-20 [fcst. 3.1% yy, prev. 3.0%] (28 Jan)
• Kenya inflation Jan-21 [fcst. 5.6% yy (1.0% mm), prev. 6.1% (1.0%)] (29 Jan)
• South Africa PSCE Dec-20 [fcst. 3.6% yy, prev. 3.4%] (29 Jan)
• South Africa M3 Dec-20 [fcst. 9.5% yy, prev. 8.2%] (29 Jan)
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• No word from pirates who seized sailors off Nigeria, Turkey says
• Rwanda’s Kagame backs proposed global social protection fund
• At least 11 killed after fighting erupts in Somalia’s Jubbaland – doctor
• Egypt arrests cartoonist on 10th anniversary of uprising, sources say
• Minors arrested in sweeps on Ethiopia rebels, says rights group
• Zimbabwe covid-19 deaths pass 1,000 as infections surge
• Thirteen dead, thousands homeless in southern Africa after storm Eloise
• Nigeria lawmakers target April or May to pass oil reform bill
• Uganda court orders opposition leader’s freedom, troops still block his home
• Zambia allocated 8.7 mln covid-19 vaccines from AU
• Gunmen kill 6 Mali soldiers in coordinated attacks
• Severe winds wreck homes, displace thousands in Mozambique – agency
• Pirates kidnap 15 sailors in attack on Turkey container ship off Nigeria

Bloomberg
• Nigeria central bank keeps analysts guessing on rates
• In Zimbabwe, coronavirus sick told to buy their own ventilators
• Zimbabwe gets coronavirus vaccine offers from China, Russia
• South Africa’s Steinhoff revives plans for Pepco listing after pandemic delay
• South Africa’s excess deaths soar as new virus variant spreads
• Uganda court orders authorities to free Bobi Wine from house arrest
• Moderna plans to test booster shot against South Africa strain
• Qatar Air adds Africa flights as Saudi ban lift shorten trips
• Attack in Somalia’s Gedo region escalates tensions with Kenya
• South Africa’s lone female bank chief, Basani Maluleke, quits
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa strikes back at critics over steps to secure vaccines
• Kenya economy seen growing this year after dodging shrinkage
• South Africa stocks rally to record as Tencent surge boosts Naspers
• Zimbabwe seeks to list company holding state mining assets

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 25 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asia shares rise as US stimulus plans offset virus woes
• Big Oil hits brakes on search for new fossil fuels
• Global green bond issuance hit new record high last year
• Saudi sovereign fund to double assets in next five years to $1.07 tln: crown prince
• Oil prices fall for 2nd session as covid-19 lockdown concerns cast pall over demand prospects
• Brent down 0.3% at $55.26, WTI down 0.2% at $52.19 (0158GMT)
• Gold ticks up on weaker dollar, US stimulus hopes
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,854.95/oz., futures down 0.1% at $1,854.30 (0329GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• US to impose South Africa travel ban to combat new covid-19 variant
• Uganda court expected to order release of opposition leader Bobi Wine from house arrest
• South Africa’s Eskom reduces load in some parts of country
• South Africa state capture inquiry resumes
• Nigeria southwest governors meet cattle herders over incessant conflicts with farmers
• Central Bank of Nigeria decides interest rates [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%] (25-26 Jan)
• Virtual World Economic Forum starts (24-29 Jan)
• Bank of Ghana MPC meets [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%] (26-29 Jan & 1 Feb)
• Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%] (27 Jan)
• Fitch briefing on SSA sovereigns & banks credit outlook (28 Jan)
• Kenya inflation Jan-21 [fcst. 5.6% yy (1.0% mm), prev. 6.1% (1.0%)] (29 Jan)
• South Africa PPI (28 Jan), M3, PSCE, trade balance (29 Jan)
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• Exclusive: Biden to impose South Africa travel ban to combat new covid-19 variant – CDC
• ICC has arrested CAR war crimes suspect: statement
• UK detects 77 cases of South Africa covid variant, 9 of Brazilian
• Pirates kidnap 15 sailors in attack on Turkey container ship off Nigeria
• ‘Choose – I kill you or rape you’: abuse accusations surge in Ethiopia’s war
• Hundred march in Tunisia as protests sharpen
• Cyclone hits Mozambique port city, brings property damage, flooding
• Panama detects first case of South Africa covid-19 variant – health ministry
• Exxon Mobil lifts force majeure on exports of Nigeria’s Qua Iboe crude oil – spokesman
• Uganda army says it has killed 189 al Shabaab fighters in Somalia
• Violence in West Africa’s Sahel displaces record 2 mln people, UN says
• Nigeria stunt crew aims to kickstart Nollywood action boom
• Zambia, IMF to hold talks on credit facility from next month
• South Africa tackles secretive party funding with law, but still allows anonymous donors
• Morocco gets 2 mln AstraZeneca vaccine doses, first big shipment to Africa
• After pandemic, oil firms even less willing to cover $3.9 bln cost of South Africa’s clean fuel plan
• Ivory Coast cocoa exporters curb exposure and inventories amid glut
• UK bans passengers from Tanzania, DRC to control spread of covid variant
• UK to extend £330 mln bridge loan to clear Sudan’s debt to ADB
• South Africa’s Mr Price sales rise on work-from-home boost, covid-19 aid
• Nigeria approves release of $16.9 mln to set up oxygen plants amid covid-19 surge
• Brazil’s Vale hires banks to sell coal assets in Mozambique – sources
• New Covid-19 variant in South Africa defeats plasma treatment, may reduce vaccine efficacy
• South Africa presidency minister, former ANC activist Jackson Mthembu dies from covid-19

Bloomberg
• US plans entry ban for most non-citizens from South Africa
• In Zimbabwe, coronavirus sick told to buy their own ventilators
• 4th Zimbabwe cabinet member dies of covid-19 in surge
• Libya guards to halt oil shipments at eastern port in spat
• Labour allies of South Africa’s ANC slam party for inaction
• Pirates attack Turkey ship off West Africa kill 1, kidnap 15
• South Africa’s vaccine holdup heaps pressure on Ramaphosa
• Seychelles imposes curfew as new coronavirus cases rise
• IMF urges spending control for a Tunisia gripped in protests
• Libya reopens oil pipeline to biggest port after fixing leak
• Nigeria to bar exporters witholding proceeds from bank services
• Atlas Mara mulls Nigeria bank options after takeover approaches
• South Africa coronavirus death toll breaches 40,000 mark
• Mauritius receives first 100,000 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine
• Angola’s Sonangol reaffirms interest in keeping Galp stake, Diario says
• Seychelles sees national carrier as ‘great problem,’ Nation says
• Ports, power plants brace for storm heading to southern Africa
• South Africa regulator backs distribution of AstraZeneca shots
• Uganda’s Bobi Wine urges protest against disputed vote results
• Steinmetz sentenced to 5 years in jail in Swiss bribery case
• Zimbabwe govt reduces operations amid covid-19 resurgence
• Kenya beats back fresh wave of desert locust invasions
• South Africa’s widening budget gap may drive up tax targets
• South Africa president signs political party funding act
• Uganda to maintain Facebook ban indefinitely, New Vision says

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 22 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Not company earnings, not data but vaccines now steering investor sentiment
• Wall Street hedges against possible bumps in US vaccine rollout
• Asia markets step back from stimulus-driven record highs
• US labour market recovery fading; housing, factories underpin economy
• Oil prices fall as China’s surging covid-19 cases trigger clampdowns
• Brent down 0.8% at $55.65, WTI down 1% at $52.60 (0445GMT)
• Gold eases as yields tick up, but set for best week in five
• Spot gold down 0.3% at $1,863.56/oz., futures down 0.1% at $1,863.90 (0233GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s ruling ANC NEC holds virtual “lekgotla” (22-24 Jan)
• South Africa’s Eskom reduces load in some parts of country
• CAR declares state of emergency to combat rebels
• Nigeria central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%] (25-26 Jan); Ghana & Kenya central bank MPCs meet next week as well
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Africa’s Covid-19 case fatality rate surpasses global level
• CAR declares state of emergency to combat rebels
• UK bans passengers from Tanzania, DRC to control spread of covid variant
• Nigeria appeals court throws out blasphemy convictions that caused outcry
• Egypt & Qatar agree to resume diplomatic ties, Cairo says
• South Africa presidency minister, former ANC activist Jackson Mthembu dies from covid-19
• Journalist shot dead in Ethiopia’s Tigray – aid worker, residents
• South Africa to pay $5.25 a dose for AstraZeneca vaccine from India’s SII
• Namibia govt supports calls to boycott Shoprite amid wage standoff
• Ethiopians dying, hungry and fearful in war-hit Tigray: agencies
• Ivory Coast appoints Mars executive to lead cocoa initiative
• Ivory Coast says delivery of its first doses of Pfizer vaccine delayed to mid-Feb
• Bovac to distribute vaccines to South Africa healthcare workers – letter
• Zambia expects to find new Mopani investor by year-end, IMF examines Glencore transaction
• Kenya reports two cases of new coronavirus variant first seen in South Africa
• South Africa’s Massmart posts lower Q4 sales on softer Black Friday, signs deal with Genpact

Bloomberg
• South Africa’s vaccine holdup heaps pressure on Ramaphosa
• India begins covid-19 vaccine exports to Brazil, Morocco
• South Africa: Gold Fields hires CEO who may fix troubled giant mine
• South Africa stocks set record as CEO news boosts Gold Fields
• Africa trade pact secures $1 bln to offset revenue losses
• Ethiopia denies Somalia forces involved in fighting in Tigray
• Kenya bourse eyes incubator for record listings this year
• Sudan to spend 60% more in 2021 in its bid for economic growth
• Libya to lean on foreign oil firms to fix rotting infrastructure
• South Africa holds key rate and signals hiking may start sooner
• South Africa perplexed over inertia in Mozambique crisis
• Nigeria now expects first covid-19 vaccine doses in February
• Eskom’s biggest union blames CEO for South Africa’s power cuts

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 21 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asia stocks at record highs as Biden inauguration lifts stimulus hopes
• Biden swiftly begins sweeping away Trump’s immigration barriers
• Biden announces return to global climate accord, new curbs on US oil industry, revokes KXL permit
• Dollar on back foot as Biden optimism bolsters riskier currencies
• Oil dips after surprise rise in US crude stocks; focus on Biden, stimulus
• Brent down 0.4% at $55.86, WTI down 0.5% at $53.07 (0500GMT)
• Gold scales 2-wk high as dollar slips on stimulus optimism
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,872.25/oz., futures up 0.3% at $1,871.70 (0308GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Kenya IEBC publishes verified BBI signatures
• South Africa central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• World Bank hosts East Asia – Africa policy dialogue
• South Africa public protector Mkhwebane faces perjury charges
• South Africa retail sales Nov-20 [fcst. -4.9% yy, prev. -1.8%]
• UK foreign secretary Raab visits Kenya (from 20 Jan)
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopians dying, hungry and fearful in war-hit Tigray: agencies
• 43 Africans drown off Libya in first Mediterranean shipwreck of 2021 – UN
• Nigeria restaurants struggle as inflation compounds pandemic impact
• Egypt & Qatar agree to resume diplomatic ties, Cairo says
• Intensifying insurgency drives Mozambique humanitarian crisis
• UK helps Kenya prepare to rollout covid-19 vaccine
• South Africa experts urge govt to lay out covid-19 vaccine plan
• Tunisia protesters revive ‘Arab Spring’ chant, riots continue
• Kenya to save 27 bln shilling from China debt service suspension deal
• Covid-19 shots to cost $3 to $10 under AU vaccine plan
• Zimbabwe foreign minister dies after contracting covid-19
• Dam down, water supplies failing in Ethiopia’s conflict-hit Tigray
• Ivory Coast cocoa backlog threatens forward sales, sector sources say

Bloomberg
• Nigeria reopens schools after lockdown triggered spike in dropouts
• CDC Group targets $1 bln of Africa investments in 2021
• South Africa’s vaccine holdup heaps pressure on Ramaphosa
• Egypt to toughen penalties for FGM
• South Africa study into new virus strain raises vaccine fears
• South Africa wealth tax could raise $10.7 bln, study shows
• China delays $245 mln of Kenya govt debt payments

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 20 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Biden to assume US presidency amid deep division and raging pandemic
• Alibaba’s Jack Ma makes first live appearance in 3 months in online meet
• Biden intelligence pick favors ‘aggressive’ stance on China threat
• Asia shares hit a record high after Yellen calls for big spending
• Brent up 0.3% at $56.09, WTI up 0.3% at $53.15
• Gold gains as dollar weakens on US stimulus outlook
• Spot gold up 0.6% at $1,850.66/oz., futures up 0.5% at $1,850 (0604GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Ghana’s Akufo-Addo to announce new cabinet; appoints new staffers
• South Africa inflation Dec-20 [fcst. 3.1% yy, prev. 3.2%]
• PM Johnson hosts UK-Africa investment conference
• Nigeria governors meet on covid-19 2nd wave
• South Africa retail sales Nov-20 [fcst. -4.9% yy, prev. -1.8%] (21 Jan)
• South Africa central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%] (21 Jan)
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• EU eyes scheme to share surplus covid-19 vaccines with poorer nations
• Violence flares for third day in Sudan’s Darfur
• Dozens of migrants scale fence into Spain’s Melilla enclave
• Macron opens door to France pulling some troops out of Sahel
• Tunisia protesters revive ‘Arab Spring’ chant, riots continue
• Nigeria to seek covid-19 vaccines less dependent on cooling facilities – official
• Liberia’s Johnson Sirleaf discouraged by covid vaccine rollout plan
• Vedanta Resources settles Zambia copper mine pollution claim
• Kenya braces for return of devastating locust swarms
• Cash-strapped Zambia takes on $1.5 bln debt to buy Glencore copper mine
• Uganda accuses US envoy of subversion for trying to visit candidate
• Violence create food crisis in northern Mozambique – WFP
• Nigeria’e exhausted medics keep waiting for covid-19 vaccines
• Rwanda re-imposes strict lockdown in capital after covid-19 cases surge
• Young Tunisians clash with police days after revolution anniversary
• Striking Ivory Coast cocoa growers threaten to block deliveries
• Nigeria requests 10 mln covid-19 vaccine doses from AU

Bloomberg
• Oxygen demand in Nigeria’s biggest city jumps as covid-19 spikes
• Uganda opposition leader Bobi Wine confined at home
• Macron signals he’s set to scale back France mission in Africa
• US imposes visa restrictions on Tanzania officials over vote
• Tunisia premier labels unrest ‘criminal’ as protests rage on
• Fourfold pay hike offer falls short of Zimbabwe banker demands
• Nigeria’s biggest bank picks 8 Africa nations for expansion
• Africa private equity has $2 bln cash pile after virus dip
• Libya forum agrees on way to select transitional govt
• New year, old problems see South Africa yield curve steepen
• Piracy pays in Africa’s Gulf of Guinea
• Algeria to take axe to spending as energy revenues tumble
• Ramaphosa’s nemesis clings to South Africa ruling party post
• Chevron to invest in pipelines to send Israel gas to Egypt
• Glencore seals Zambia copper sale but must wait for the cash
• Sudan races to quell Darfur violence in test for govt
• Rebel attack heightens risk of war in Russia’s Africa ally CAR
• South Africa’s new virus strain is 50% more infectious
• Uganda’s election loser now has the world’s attention
• Ethiopia pulls Tigray party license ahead of June elections

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 19 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asia shares look to China for recovery lead, earnings in focus
• IMF chief sees ‘high degree of uncertainty’ in global outlook
• Yellen says US must ‘act big’ on next coronavirus relief package
• Outlook darkens for Wall Street as Biden’s regulators take shape
• US asks Australia to scrap proposed laws to make Facebook, Google pay for news
• Brent edges up as optimism over economy trumps demand concerns
• Brent up 0.3% at $54.92, WTI down 0.2% at $52.25 (0150GMT)
• Gold gains as dollar eases off 4-wk high
• Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,840.81/oz., futures up 0.5% at $1,839.40 (0226GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Ghana supreme court begins hearing of Mahama election petition
• South Africa mining production Nov-20 [fcst. -4.0% yy, prev. -6.3%]
• South Africa inflation Dec-20 [fcst. 3.1% yy, prev. 3.2%] (20 Jan)
• PM Johnson hosts UK-Africa investment conference (20 Jan)
• Nigeria governors meet on covid-19 2nd wave (20 Jan)
• South Africa retail sales Nov-20 [fcst. -4.9% yy, prev. -1.8%] (21 Jan)
• South Africa central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%] (21 Jan)
• Nigeria central bank MPC meets (25-26 Jan)
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Malawi to close schools, make bars shut early to curb pandemic
• Violence flares for third day in Sudan’s Darfur
• China says its ready to help Kenya deal with its debt challenges
• Vaccine nationalism puts world on brink of ‘catastrophic moral failure’: WHO chief
• Uganda opposition says troops raid its offices amid election challenge
• CAR top court confirms President Touadera’s re-election
• Ghana president warns of health system overload as covid cases soar
• South Africa is promised 9 mln J&J vaccine shots – Business Day

Bloomberg
• Africa central bankers out of policy space to fight recessions
• Ivory Coast cocoa farmers strike as unsold beans pile up
• South Africa mining dealmaker plots M&A push before retirement
• Bobi Wine faces uphill slog to overturn Uganda election outcome
• Deadly fighting rocks Sudan’s Darfur after peacekeeping mission ends
• China in talks with Kenya for debt relief after Paris Club deal
• South Africa opposition demands clarity on vaccine strategy
• Mozambique president hands control to army in insurgency battle
• Zimbabwe banks shut 17% of branches as virus drives digitization
• Hundreds arrested in Tunisia protests as PM plans new cabinet

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 18 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• America braces for violent protests, crowds remain thin
• China’s economy picks up speed in Q4, ends 2020 in solid shape after covid-19 shock
• Asia shares pare losses as China economy rebounds
• Oil drops 1% as rising coronavirus cases end supply-led rally
• Brent down nearly 1% at $54.65, WTI down nearly 1% at $51.93 (0207GMT)
• Gold recovers as US stimulus prospects offset firm dollar
• Spot gold up 0.6% at $1,837.21/oz., futures up 0.3% at $1,835.70 (0559GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Kenya’s Uhuru & Raila start aggressive BBI campaign; to counter Ruto “wheelbarrow” rallies
• Schools resume in Nigeria, Ghana; after covid-19 closures
• South Africa SACCI business confidence Dec-20 [prev. 93.4]
• South Africa mining production (19 Jan), CPI (20 Jan), retail sales (21 Jan)
• South Africa central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%] (21 Jan)
• Nigeria central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%] (22 Jan)
• South Africa’s Eskom implements stage 2 loadshedding
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ghana president warns of health system overload as covid cases soar
• Egypt unveils 3000-yr old coffins in latest archaeological discovery
• Tunisia PM appoints new ministers in sweeping cabinet reshuffle
• Uganda opposition party says it will challenge election result; two dead in protests
• At least 48 dead in militia attack in El Geneina, West Darfur – SUNA
• UK calls for concerns over Uganda election to be investigated
• Libya talks make progress towards new temporary govt, UN says
• Uganda main opposition presidential candidate says blocked by military from leaving compound
• WHO stops short of advising proof of covid-19 shots for travel
• EU suspends Ethiopia budget support over Tigray crisis
• South Africa scientists discover new chemicals that kill malaria parasite
• WHO sees poorer countries getting first covid vaccines this quarter
• Zambia hires communication adviser over debt restructuring
• Libya releases bodies found in mass grave for burial
• UN security council approves new UN Libya mediator
• Trump receives Morocco’s highest award for Middle East work: official
• Tunisia police clash with protesters after police beating
• Kenya Airways plans more pay cuts due to pandemic – memo
• EU suspends Ethiopia budget support over Tigray crisis
• Namibia suspends poultry imports from 10 European countries due to bird flu
• South Africa’s mining industry to support covid-19 vaccine rollout
• AU vaccines to be allocated according to population
• Kenya remittance inflows jump by nearly 11% in 2020 to $3 bln – cenbank
• Nearly 60,000 have fled CAR violence: UN
• IMF hopes to present Kenya program to its board in early 2021

Bloomberg
• South Africa treasury considers tax hike to fund vaccines: Business Day
• JP Morgan strategists say $40,000 is key test for bitcoin boom
• Eskom extends South Africa power cuts due to lack of capacity
• Benin’s president to seek new mandate in April polls, RFI says
• Death toll from violence in Sudan’s West Darfur rises to 48
• Libya oil output drops as pipelines creak from war-era neglect
• Conflict-ravaged Libya inches closer to new unity govt
• Record kidnappings draw Maersk call for action in Gulf of Guinea
• Nigeria govt hasn’t yet bought any coronavirus vaccines
• Uganda leader Museveni clinches sixth straight election win
• Futuregrowth sees South Africa Land Bank as threat to state lending
• Exhausted nurses toil on South Africa wards full of virus cases
• Nigeria’s big oil-refining revamp gets off to a slow start
• Uganda opposition leader Bobi Wine says home under army siege
• Eskom forecasts power shortages in South Africa through April
• Zimbabwe health minister denies hospitals overwhelmed by virus

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 15 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Wall Street cheers Biden’s $1.9 tln rescue package for hard-hit economy
• US says Capitol rioters meant to ‘capture and assassinate’ officials – filing
• Asia shares turn lower as recovery concerns resurface
• China steals march on West in developing nations’ vaccine rollout
• Oil mixed as China lockdowns raise demand questions
• Brent down 3 cents at $56.69, WTI up 12 cents at $53.69 (0133GMT)
• Gold rises on US stimulus hopes, dovish Fed stance
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,848.75/oz., futures flat at $1,851 (0548GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Uganda counts votes of general elections
• Ghana parliament makes determination on division in hung parliament
• Kenya’s Nairobi MCAs vet governor nominee Kananu; subject to court ruling
• Nigeria inflation Dec-20 [fcst. 15.8% yy, prev. 14.9%]
• South Africa’s Eskom implements stage 2 loadshedding (14-17 Jan)
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• 46 civilians feared killed in eastern Congo attack, official says
• Major violations of international law at Tigray refugee camps: UN
• UN calls for probe into Camerron army attack on civilians
• Ugandans choose between longtime leader and popstar politician
• South Africa’s Pick n Pay CEO Brasher to retire in April
• Africa cannot relax now Covid-19 vaccines are coming, health boss says
• Emirates temporarily suspends flights to South Africa
• 3 UN peacekeepers killed, 5 wounded in Mali attack
• AU secures 270 mln covid-19 vaccine doses from manufacturers
• Cameroon army killed civilians in village raid, witnesses and lawyer say
• Uganda orders internet blackout until further notice – MTN
• South Africa central bank to hold repo at record low through 2021
• Darfur displaced fearful as UN peackeepers hand over to local forces

Bloomberg
• Mysterious Ethiopia wheat deals complicate fight against hunger
• South Africa sees vaccine deal terms finalized within a month
• Liquidators want more power to probe South Africa bitcoin trader
• Sudan to work with South Sudan in bid to double oil production
• South Africa miners can scale up vaccination, Sibanye says
• Bank’s assets targeted over Shell’s $479 mln Nigeria debt
• South Africa may restart covid unemployment relief, unions say
• AU secures 270 mln vaccines from 3 drugmakers
• Nigeria’s Lagos boosts infrastructure spend after youth protests
• Mozambique pushes for Total to restart $20 bln project
• South Africa power cuts expected for days as new plant fails
• Nigeria plans covid-19 vaccination for 40% of population in 2021
• Researchers detect covid-19 variant unique to Kenya, Nation says

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 14 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asia shares make cautious gains after Wall Street rises as US yields fall
• Dollar extends rebound as investors await US stimulus details, bitcoin bounces
• Twitter CEO says banning Trump was right decision but sets dangerous precedent
• House votes to impeach Trump again
• Oil price dip on rise in virus cases; US stock draw checks losses
• Brent down 5 cents at $56.01, WTI down 1 cent at $52.90 (0124GMT)
• Gold rises on inflation bets ahead of Biden unveiling stimulus
• Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,848.07, futures down 0.4% at $1,847.70 (0054GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Uganda holds general elections
• Ghana supreme court hears Mahama petition
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Nigeria inflation Dec-20 [fcst. 15.8% yy, prev. 14.9%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Uganda orders internet blackout until further notice: MTN
• 3 UN peacekeepers killed, 6 wounded in Mali attack
• Cameroon army killed civilians in village raid, witnesses & lawyer say
• Ethiopia says ex-foreign minister killed by military after refusing to surrender
• Sudan’s Darfur displaced fearful as UN peacekeepers hand over to local forces
• US senators call for release of journalists in Ethiopia
• Over 80 killed in attack in Ethiopia border region with Sudan – state rights commission
• IMF approves $34.4 mln disbursement for CAR
• Gulf of Guinea pirate kidnappings hit record in 2020
• Sudan says Ethiopia military aircraft crossed border
• US cancels its observation of Uganda presidential election
• Data on AstraZeneca vaccine and South Africa variant should come soon, UK expert says
• Ethiopia warns Sudan it is running out of patience over border dispute
• Senegal in talks to buy covid vaccine from China’s Sinopharm, says minister
• Bullets and panic: rebels attack CAR capital
• Steinmetz denies corruption in Guinea case; says he was not in charge
• Nigeria senate president vows action on long-delayed oil reform law
• Tech investors eye Africa’s education & financial sectors

Bloomberg
• UN calls for probe into France raid that killed 19 in Mali
• Seychelles struggles to pay wages as covid-19 hits tourism
• Uganda authorities step up security ahead of fraught elections
• Zimbabwe trade data offer glimmer of hope to beleaguered economy
• Sudan says Ethiopia plane breached border
• AU secures about 300 mln covid-19 vaccines
• Zimbabwe invites tenders for oxygen supply as covid cases surge

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg