macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 17 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares firm as China’s GDP raises hopes of recovery
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.1%, Nikkei +0.49%
  • Global stock index inches up to record highs
  • China 2019, Q4 GDP growth in line with expectations

Oil Markets

  • China’s 2019 & Dec crude oil runs hit record highs; up 7.6% y/y
  • Brent up 3 cents at $64.65 a barrel (0123GMT)
  • WTI up 6 cents at $58.58 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold eases on demand for riskier assets, set for week in 2 mths
  • Gold down 0.1% at $1,550.96/oz. (0118GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,550.80/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans fall, set for biggest weekly loss in 5 mths
  • Soybeans fall as China says US buys dependent on market
  • Soybean futures down 2.3% week thus far; little changed at $9.24-1/2 a bushel (0206GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.5% at $3.77-1/2 a bushel; down 2% for the week
  • Wheat futures little changed at $5.65-3/4 a bushel; up nearly 0.5% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria inflation Dec-19 [fcst. 12.2% yy, prev. 11.9%]
  • South Africa – India joint ministerial commission in New Delhi; Pandor co-chairing
  • Comoros parliamentary elections
  • Nigeria’s Buhari heads to London today for UK-Africa summit (20 Jan)
  • Libya Berlin conference (19 Jan)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • South African central bank surprises with rate cut by 25bps to 6.25%
  • South Africa’s rand firms on surprise rate cut
  • Sibanye cuts fewer jobs than planned in Marikana restructuring
  • South Africa’s finance minister seeking funding for airline SAA
  • Senegal rape law offers hope after years of silence
  • German foreign minister says Libya’s Haftar backs ceasefire: n-tv
  • Lesotho PM Thabane says he intends to resign: SABC
  • Record 45 mln people across Southern Africa face hunger: UN food agency
  • EU parliament condemns rights crackdown in Burundi ahead of 2020 election
  • UK seeks to confiscate convicted Nigerian politician’s loot
  • Angola’s dos Santos moots presidency run despite charges
  • Nigerian militants free 3 aid workers, other civilian hostages: U.N
  • Seeking peace in Libya & Iran, past inaction haunts EU diplomacy
  • MTN Group appoints Kyomukama as South Sudan CEO
  • South Africa scours state coffers in bid to rescue SAA
  • Firm linked to Nigerian oil firm Lekoil welcomes loan scam probe
  • Makgoba appointed interim chair at South Africa’s Eskom
  • Erdogan says Turkey starting troop deployment to Libya
  • South African Airways selling nine Airbus aircraft – tender document
  • Kenyan shiiling firms against dollar on back of remittances, investors buying stocks

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 16 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • World stocks pause at record peak as markets assess US-China deal
  • MSC ACWI, S&P 500 at record high after Phase 1 deal inked
  • Chinese shares little moved
  • Bond yields dip on low inflation data

Oil Markets

  • Oil gains after US-China trade deal, rise in inventories
  • Brent up 0.7% at $64.45 a barrel (0310GMT)
  • WTI up 0.7% at $58.20

Precious metals

  • Gold steady as uncertainties linger after US-China trade deal
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,556.69/oz. (0140GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,556.40/oz.

Grains

  • US soybeans fall to near 1-mth low on doubts about Chinese purchase
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $9.27-3/4 a bushel (0138GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.86-3/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.4% at $5.71-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 6.5%, prev. 6.5%]
  • Team South Africa pre-World Economic Forum breakfast meeting in Johannesburg
  • South Africa mining production Nov-19 [fcst. 0.2% yy, prev. -2.9%]
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Erdogan, Trump discuss Libya developments in phone call
  • Firm linked to Nigerian oil firm Lekoil welcomes loan scam probe
  • Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan to finalize Blue Nile dam agreement this month
  • South African Airways flights at risk without $139 mln from govt – union
  • Turkey summons Egypt diplomat after raid on Anadolu agency in Cairo
  • Amid fears US will pull troops from Africa, French minister heads to Washington
  • South Africa’s Telkom could cut 3,000 jobs – letter to unions
  • Macron says wants “useful” meeting on Libya, unsure on attendance
  • Mali’s gold production rises 7% in 2019 to record high
  • Too early to say Libya ceasefire has collapsed – Turkish defence minister
  • Africa Oil – Sonangol sells out, Nigerian glut mounts
  • Egypt forms a new team to investigate the death of Italian student
  • Egypt could resell Israeli gas to Europe within months – Israeli minister
  • Makgoba appointed interim chair at South Africa’s Eskom
  • Egypt issues new mining law regulations – cabinet
  • South Africa’s rand firms on better-than-expected retail sales data
  • Italian appeals court acquits Saipem, Eni in Algerian graft case
  • Morocco begins talks to curb trade deficit with Turkey
  • South Africa’s Eskom takes energy regulator to court over tariffs
  • Ethiopian Airlines to start building new $5 bln airport this year – CEO
  • Sudan reopens airspace after revolt quelled
  • Ethio Telecom posts 32% rise in H1 revenue
  • Egypt orders retrial of monks sentenced to death for bishop’s murder
  • Ethiopia sets tentative August date for elections
  • Germany sets out broad aims for Berlin Libya conference
  • Scientists hope to revive near-extinct northern white rhino in Kenya
  • EasyJet to restart UK flights to Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh resort
  • Uganda shilling weakens on importer demand
  • Kenya to ditch wide fiscal deficits – finmin
  • South Africa’s retail sales up 2.6% y/y in November
  • Mozambique leader Nyusi sworn in despite opposition boycott
  • Trafficking risk high for hundred of migrants sent back to Libya
  • Congo opens Chinese-owned Deziwa copper and cobalt mine
  • South African nuclear firm Necsa’s board members resign
  • Ghana sells 280,000 T of 2020/21 cocoa export contracts with LID by Jan. 7
  • Ivory Coast sells around 720,000 T of 2020/21 cocoa export contracts with LID by Jan.3 – CCC
  • Ivory Coast 2019/20 Q1 cocoa grind up 4.4% by end Dec.
  • Kenya shilling trading in tight range against the dollar
  • Kenya’s Treasury cuts 2019 growth estimate to 5.6%

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 15 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks tread water ahead of signing of initial US-China trade deal
  • US-China Phase 1 trade deal to be signed later (1630GMT) on Weds [@macroafrica: Market neutral to negative event with tariffs still in place]
  • Tariffs to stay until there is Phase 2 agreement: Mnuchin
  • Wall St stocks flat; Yields inch lower; FX subdued except yuan

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slip on concerns US-China trade deal may not boost demand
  • US output to rise in 2020 more than previously expected – EIA
  • Brent down 0.3% at $64.28 per barrel (0206GMT)
  • WTI down 0.4% at $58.00

Precious metals

  • Gold inches up as US says China tariffs in place till Phase 2 deal
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,547.23/oz. (0117GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,547.80/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat up for 2nd session, trades near 1-1/2 year high
  • Wheat futures up 0.3% at $5.70 per bushel (0156GMT)
  • Corn futures unchanged at $3.89 per bushel
  • Soy futures up about 0.1% at $9.42-3/4 per bushel
  • Rice futures up 0.1% at $13.37 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Mozambique’s Nyusi inauguration; South Africa’s Ramaphosa attending
  • Nigeria’s armed forces remembrance day; Buhari to preside over official event
  • South Africa retail sales Nov-19 [fcst. -0.2% yy, prev. 0.3%]
  • South Africa central bank MPC meets on interest rates (14-16 Jan)
  • Egypt, Ethiopia & Sudan meet over Nile dam in Washington DC; 15 Jan deadline for agreement
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Sudan’s airspace is open, sovereign council chief says
  • Natural gas pumping from Israel to Egypt to start on Wednesday – statement
  • Sudan quells revolt of former spy service men after clashes
  • Sudan govt forces retake all intelligence buildings in capital – military source
  • World Court to rule on emergency measures in Myanmar genocide case on Jan. 23 – Gambia
  • Africa Oil – Nigerian offered in window, Angolan programme expected
  • South Africa will embrace private power generation, Ramaphosa says
  • South Africa rand slips as Woolworths, Old Mutual lead stocks higher
  • Kenya’s president reshuffles cabinet amid rift with deputy president
  • Turkey won’t shun “teaching a lesson” to Libyan commander Haftar if attacks continue
  • Germany invited Libya’s Serraj, Haftar to conference
  • Russia: Libya’s Haftar is taking 2 days to discuss ceasefire deal – Ifax
  • Reprieve for South Africa’s Old Mutual as court rules against fired CEO
  • Gunfire head in Sudanese capital – witness
  • South Africa’s Woolworths appoints Roy Bagattini CEO
  • Morocco 2020 economic growth seen rising to 3.5%
  • Kenya’s president reshuffles cabinet, confirms Yatani as finance minister
  • Turkey says ready to act against Haftar if Libya attacks continue
  • Kenyan shilling firms against the dollar
  • South African consumer confidence remains near 2-yr low – survey
  • South African court upholds Old Mutal appeal against reinstatement of ex-CEO
  • Kenya’s president urges the central bank to prevent predatory lending
  • Libya’s Haftar leaves Moscow without signing ceasefire – TASS
  • Eastern Libyan forces says ready and determined to achieve victory – website

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 14 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks rally to record high ahead of trade deal; yen slips
  • Imminent trade deal drives optimism
  • World stocks hit record high, Nikkei hits month-high
  • Yen drops to 7-mth low

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices dip as Mideast tensions ease; market eyes trade deal
  • US crude oil inventories likely fell last week – poll
  • Brent down 0.1% at $64.12 a barrel (0124GMT)
  • WTI down 0.1% at $58.04

Precious metals

  • Gold falls ahead of US-China trade deal on improved risk appetite
  • Spot gold down 0.7% at $1,537.67/oz. (0126GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.9% at $1,537.10/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans drop for 2nd day; US-China trade deal eyed
  • Wheat futures down 0.1% at $5.61-1/2 a bushel (0213GMT)
  • Corn futures down about 0.1% at $3.89-1/4 a bushel
  • Soy futures down 0.1% at $9.41 a bushel
  • Rice futures unchanged at $13.23 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 2nd Business Unity South Africa Indaba; Ramaphosa attending
  • South Africa state capture inquiry resumes
  • Nigeria Supreme Court to decide 6 gubernatorial election appeals
  • South Africa consumer confidence Q4-19 [prev. -7]
  • South Africa central bank MPC meets on interest rates (14-16 Jan)
  • Egypt, Ethiopia & Sudan meet over Nile dam in Washington DC; 15 Jan deadline for agreement
  • South Africa’s Mabuza in South Sudan for consultations on peace agreement

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • US confirms ‘avoidable’ death of Egyptian-American Kassem in custody
  • Nigeria’s Lekoil halts London trading on finding loan was ‘complex façade’
  • France, West Africa to unite forces in fight against militants
  • Nigeria’s central bank reschedules monetary policy committee meeting to Jan.23-24
  • France to send extra 220 troops to fight militants in Sahel – Macron
  • Libya’s Haftar, Serraji did not meet officially during Moscow talks – Interfax
  • South Africa’s mining industry calls for action to end power crisis
  • Libya peace talks in Moscow fall short of ceasefire deal
  • Nigeria seeks to boost revenue, support small firms with new finance law
  • Africa Oil – India’s IOC issues two tenders, programmes awaited
  • Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone to set up investment arm
  • South African rand soft ahead of data-packed week
  • US Supreme Court rebuffs Sudan bid to limit damages over embassy bombings
  • Ivory Coast pledges trafficking crackdown as 137 child victims are rescued
  • Trump, Germany’s Merkel discussed security, Libya – White House
  • Egypt’s central bank received no request from Bank Audi to sell Egyptian unit
  • Egypt’s Beltone to sell stake in brokerage Auerback in 2020
  • Niger sacks army chief after deadliest attacks in years
  • Zimbabwe finance minister sticks to 3% growth forecast despite poor rains
  • EU welcomes Libya ceasefire, says UN must lead reconciliation
  • Kenya’s stock exchange sees boost from repeal of rate cap
  • Angola holds off on chasing dos Santos’ assets abroad – prosecution
  • MTN Nigeria rises 10% after $2 bln tax case withdrawn
  • Ivory Coast 2019/20 cocoa arrivals reach 1.259 mln T by Jan. 12 – exporters
  • Germany plans to hold Libya summit on Jan 19 – participants
  • Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.112 mln T by Dec. 31
  • Angolan courts could take action to seize dos Santos’ assets abroad ‘if necessary’ – prosecution
  • 3 teachers killed in suspected militant attack near Kenya’s Somalia border – police
  • South Africa’s Massmart could cut 1,440 jobs
  • Uganda shilling stronger on back of commodity flows

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 13 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia shares touch new 19-mth highs ahead of US-China trade deal
  • Asia shares ex-Japan up 0.47%; Tokyo on holiday
  • US & China due to sign trade deal on Wednesday
  • Sentiment cautious after wild swings last week
  • China economic data due Friday in focus

Oil Markets

  • Oil dips on easing US-Iran tensions, eyes on China trade deal
  • Brent down 0.2% at $64.85 per barrel (0120GMT)
  • WTI down 0.2% at $58.95

Precious metals

  • Gold dips on Sino-US trade optimism, firm dollar
  • Spot gold down 0.4% at $1,555.76/oz. (0131GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,556.30/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans firm as US-China trade deal signing day nears
  • Soybean futures up 0.2% at $9.47-3/4 a bushel (0149GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.5% at $3.87-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.2% at $5.63-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Sahel G5 leaders to meet Macron in France
  • Egypt, Ethiopia & Sudan meet over Nile dam in Washington DC
  • China’s foreign minister Wang Yi in Zimbabwe; already visited Egypt & Djibouti in Africa tour (7-13 Jan), Eritrea & Burundi also on itinerary
  • Rwanda’s Kagame in Abu Dhabi for Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
  • Guinea-Bissau’s president-elect Emballo expected in The Gambia
  • Egypt & Sudan start joint 50MW electricity grid (12 Jan)
  • Ethiopia’s Abiy state visit to South Africa (11-12 Jan)

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Guinea-Bissau Supreme Court rejects challenge to presidential election result
  • Ethiopian PM Abiy expects parliamentary election in May or June
  • Libya ceasefire call brings lull in heavy fighting
  • Both sides accuse each other of violating ceasefire in Libya
  • Equatorial Guinea to add 20,000 bpd of oil production this year
  • Libyan forces loyal to Haftar announce ceasefire, GNA agrees to truce
  • Niger army base attack death toll rises to at least 89 – security sources
  • German chancellor Merkel says Berlin will host Libya peace talks
  • Russia’s Putin: Russians fighting in Libya do not represent the state
  • Tunisia parliament rejects govt, coalition building must restart
  • Member of Kenya’s Akasha organization sentenced to 23 years in prison in US
  • Chairman of South Africa’s Eskom quits after holiday power cuts
  • Nigeria revokes $2 bln tax case against telecoms firm MTN
  • Interim chair for South Africa’s Eskom to be announced in due course – president
  • Zimbabwe public workers reject govt offer to double pay
  • Africa Oil – Angolan cargoes sell, tender results emerge
  • Niger sets new offensive against militants after 25 soldiers killed
  • I’m a scapegoat: Angola’s Isabel dos Santos decries corruption ‘witch hunt’
  • Congo ethnic killings may amount to crimes against humanity – UN
  • Kenya warns locust swarm is spreading, threatening food security
  • Turkey aims to sign deal with Libya over Gaddafi-era compensation
  • Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan deadlocked over giant Nile dam, look to Washington talks
  • Kenya’s tourism earnings, arrivals rise in 2019
  • South Africa’s Eskom scales back power cuts, system still vulnerable

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets
• World stocks hit record high as techs lead relief rally
• MSCI ACWI hits record high; Apple leads tech shares
• Relief over US-iran tensions support sentiment
• Gold, safe-haven currencies, oil all weaker

Oil Markets
• Oil prices fall further as threat of Middle East war recedes
• Brent down 0.2% at $65.23 a barrel (0119GMT); down over 4% last 2 days
• WTI down 0.2% at $59.42

Precious metals
• Gold inches down as easing US-Iran tensions whet risk appetite
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,551.02/oz. (0045GMT)
• US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,551.40/oz.

Grains
• Soybeans edge higher as US-Iran anxiety ebbs, set for 0.5% weekly rise
• Soybean futures up 0.2% at $9.45 a bushel
• Corn futures down over 0.5% for the week
• Wheat futures up more than 1% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]
• Kenya’s Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) forum in Kisii county
• South Africa’s Eskom implements stage 1 loadshedding
• Kenya’s stranded opposition figure Miguna court case
• Egypt & Sudan to start 50MW joint electricity grid (12 Jan)
• South Africa’s ruling ANC 108th anniversary events in Northern Cape;
Jan. 8th statement by Ramaphosa on 11 Jan.

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
• East Libya forces to press campaign against Tripoli rivals despite
ceasefire call
• Sudan’s PM visits rebel stronghold in Kordofan on peace mission
• Morocco using laws to silence dissent – rights groups
• W.Africa Oil – Angolan cargoes dwindle as diffs stay steady
• Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan deadlocked over giant Nile dam, look to
Washington talks
• Italian foreign policy flounders amidst Libyan blunders
• Egyptair to resume flights to Baghdad on Saturday
• Power cuts, weak data hold back South African rand
• Egypt’s annual headline inflation rises to 7.1% in December
• Egypt’s core inflation accelerates to 2.4% in December – c.bank
• South African power cuts to drag on into Friday
• Extreme weather leaves Congo capital residents underwater
• South African military plane crash lands in Congo, no sign of major damage
• Sudan opens up gold market in bid to raise revenue
• Ethiopia passes gun control law to tackle surge in violence
• 20 wounded in northern Mali rocket attack on UN base
• South Africa’s manufacturing down 3.6% y/y in November
• Congo’s Jan-Nov copper output up 16%, cobalt production falls 18%
• South African business confidence index edges up in December
• Kenyan shilling holds steady against importer demand
• Kenya’s KCB Group injects 5 bln shillings into NBK after acquisition
• Militant attack in Nigerian town kills 20 soldiers, displaces 1,000 residents

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 9 Jan

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares erase losses as Mideast tensions ease
  • [Oil up after sharp fall on Wed.], stocks rise
  • Safety rush turns to relief rally as Mideast tension ebbs
  • Gold & yen give back gains

Oil Markets

  • Oil edges up after plunge, as market recovers poise
  • Brent up 0.8% at $65.99 a barrel (0109GMT); after tumbling 4.1% on Wed.
  • WTI up 1% at $60.22; after nearly 5% drop on Wed.

Precious metals

  • Gold inches up as investors still wary of US-Iran conflict risk
  • Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,560.36/oz. (0300GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,560.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans flat ahead of USDA report
  • Soybean futures steady at $9.47-3/4 a bushel (0201GMT)
  • Corn futures unchanged at $3.84-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures up 0.2% at $5.53-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Guinea on state visit
  • South Africa manufacturing production Nov-19 [fcst. -0.6% yy, prev. -0.8%]
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Dec-19 [prev. 92.7]
  • Kenya’s Nairobi county assembly special sitting on Sonko crisis; county executive meeting also called
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa in Northern Cape for ANC Pre-Jan. 8 mass mobilization drive

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Turkey, Russia seek Libya ceasefire on Jan. 12 as rivals clash
  • Militant attack in Nigerian town kills 20 soldiers, displaces 1,000 residents
  • Norway to take 600 Libya evacuees from Rwanda camp
  • Libya’s NOC Sanalla says production rates reached 1.174 mln bpd – NOC Facebook
  • Niger urged to work with traffickers to curb violence
  • US imposes sanctions on South Sudan vice president
  • Sudan seizes assets of Bashir’s former ruling party
  • South Africa’s Eskonm cuts power for 2nd night in a row
  • Africa Oil – More Angolan crude trades, but cargoes linger
  • EU pushes Libya’s PM Serraji for ceasefire, warns on Turkey deal
  • South African edges up after Iran-US fears abate
  • Libyan PM Serraj to meet Italy PM – Italian govt source
  • Algeria names panel to amend constitution as protests persist
  • Stowaway found dead at Paris airport after Ivory Coast flight – airline
  • Rival Libyan forces clash west of Sirte
  • EM stocks fall as Iran retaliates against US; South African rand firms
  • Kenyan shilling holds steady against dollar
  • Loud explosion heard in Somalia’s Mogadishu at a busy junction
  • South Africa’s net foreign reserves rise to $44.897 bln in December

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters